Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

14.8%

+574

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Sean Burke (1.11 HR/9) · park 107

Batting #2Confirmed lineup

2+ RBI

12.2%

+722

RBI 1+

35.4%

+182

Hits 1+

67.6%

-209

Hits 2+

25.7%

+290

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

23.4%

95% CI · 22.9–23.9%

+327

Fair odds

1st AB

6.7%

Through AB2

13.1%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park+7%
Temp+5%
vs SP+13%
Contact+15%
SP Contact-6%
Statcast+21%
SP Statcast-3%

🎯 Early-AB cues

·87F game
·Elite batted-ball profile (home) — Pull/Hard/FB/HR-FB above league
·Elite Statcast power (barrel%/EV/bat speed above league)

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0395 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)+13% (×1.13) · blended_proj

Park+7% (×1.07)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp+5% (×1.05)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)+15% (×1.15)

Statcast (barrel/EV)+21% (×1.21)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)-6% (×0.94)

SP Statcast allowed-3% (×0.97)

Discipline+1% (×1.01)

HR Odds History

Price range · 18 games

Now

+575

High

+2605

Low

+355

Med

+670

Avg

+742

+575

Low +355High +2605

BUILDING HISTORY

No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.

HR Winners — odds that cashed

No priced HR games in the tracked window yet.

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-07-16 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

7.3

Proj PA

166

HR / PA

.044

ISO

.193

wOBA

.328

wRC+

110

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Home2026-07-16 · FG

Season

HR/FB

22.1

Hard%

32.2

FB%

37.8

Pull%

36.1

Soft%

20.6

GB%

45.0

vs LHP

HR/FB

26.7

Hard%

36.4

FB%

39.0

Pull%

33.8

Soft%

14.3

GB%

42.9

vs RHP

HR/FB

18.4

Hard%

29.1

FB%

36.9

Pull%

37.9

Soft%

25.2

GB%

46.6

🐾Home

HR/FB

20.0

Hard%

32.9

FB%

38.0

Pull%

30.4

Soft%

17.7

GB%

43.0

Away

HR/FB

23.7

Hard%

31.7

FB%

37.6

Pull%

40.6

Soft%

22.8

GB%

46.5

🐾 = split that matches tonight (Home). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

4.0 🐾

STRONG PLAY

Yankee Stadium mild HR boost (+7)
Elite power: .259 ISO
Crushes 1/3 of SP's top pitches (FF)
Historical sweet spot in the order: #3 (43% of career HRs)
Hot streak: .997 OPS over last 15 days
88°F — ball flies in warm air
20 mph wind — check direction relative to spray
Elite barrel% (12.0)
High barrels/PA (8.6%)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.360↑ vs season .27453 PA · 15d

OPS

.997

ISO

.260

RBI

K-BB

8-2

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	HR	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-17	vs CHW	5	2	1	3	0	0	1.000
💣 349ft · 100.0 EV · 4-Seamer
06-16	vs CHW	5	2	1	2	0	3	1.000
💣 390ft · 103.9 EV · 4-Seamer
06-14	@ TOR	5	3	0	0	0	0	.600
06-13	@ TOR	4	1	1	2	0	0	1.000
💣 400ft · 103.2 EV · Knuckle-Curve
06-12	@ TOR	4	1	0	1	0	1	.250
06-10	@ CLE	4	2	0	1	1	0	.500
06-09	@ CLE	4	2	0	0	1	1	.500
06-08	@ CLE	4	1	1	3	0	0	1.000
💣 388ft · 104.9 EV · Cutter

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾FF4-Seam Fastball55PA	.542	.440	22.7	42.9	55	17.4
🐾CUCurveball18PA	.236	.357	0.0	40.0	55	15.4
🐾SLSlider29PA	—	.310	0.0	41.2	71	27.9
🐾SISinker27PA	.115	.280	8.0	52.4	64	13.1

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES	.652	.506	26.3	52.6	68	14.6	240	27
vs RHP	.429	.390	20.0	40.0	44	18.5	98	33

CUCurveball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES	.142	.418	0.0	20.0	40	25.0	240	8
vs RHP	—	.193	0.0	33.3	67	10.0	98	7

SLSlider

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES	—	.387	0.0	33.3	67	15.0	240	13
vs RHP	—	.250	0.0	45.5	73	33.3	98	17

SISinker

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES	.600	.659	20.0	80.0	40	0.0	240	6
vs RHP	—	.216	5.0	55.0	70	15.5	98	26

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

vs LHB

117

🐾vs RHB

107

vs SHB

112

Yankee Stadium. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Goldschmidt.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Tonight: Batting #2Confirmed1 of 23 HRs · 4%

🐾 Hottest from spot #3 — 10 of 23 career HRs (43%).

🐾

Hot spots:#3#4

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast. 🐾 jade outline = tonight's spot.

Season Statcast

ISO

.259

Barrel %

12.0

Hard Hit %

40.6

Pull % (HRs)

xwOBA

.363

xBA

.274

Brl / PA %

8.60

Max EV (mph)

109.8

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

109.8

Avg EV on HRs

106.0

Avg HR Distance (ft)

397

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

0/5

Crushed (105+ mph)

4/5

Avg LA on HRs

29.0°

Brl / PA %

8.60

Sampled across 5 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Sean Burke · top 3 pitches tonight

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

🐾 HIGH EXPLOIT

FF4-Seam Fastball
Use%
37
xwOBA
.440
Whiff%
17.4
HH%
42.9
BRL%
22.7
Pull%
55
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.
CUCurveball
Use%
22
xwOBA
.357
Whiff%
15.4
HH%
40.0
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
55
SLSlider
Use%
17
xwOBA
.310
Whiff%
27.9
HH%
41.2
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
71

Sean Burke arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
FF4-Seam Fastball⚡ PUT-AWAY	36.9	11.8	37.3	48	.305	19.5
CUCurveball	21.7	—	40.5	—	.292	19.1
SLSlider	17.1	5.6	32.4	69	.290	17.4
SISinker	16.0	2.3	34.9	51	.333	11.1

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball⚡ PUT-AWAY37% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	11.9	40.7	58	.362	17.5	92
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	11.8	38.2	32	.219	22.8	64

SLSlider17% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	0.0	37.5	50	.284	21.7	17
vs RHB	7.1	28.6	75	.295	14.8	38

SISinker16% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	6.2	50.0	50	.358	19.0	24
vs RHB	0.0	25.9	52	.317	10.5	33

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 19.5% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #5 (xwOBA .453). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (NYY)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Yankee Stadium (318/408/314 ft) · elev 55ft

5 HRs this season

vs RHP 1vs LHP 4

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

FF🐾4-Seam Fastball3

SISinker1

CHChangeup1

Bats R · Pull side: LF

HR Drought — when he's due

HR Drought

games since last HR

PAs since last HR

Homers about every 2.0 games · 10 PA (4 HR in 8 G)

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
vs RHP108PA	.208	.446	.724	9.6%	6
vs LHP77PA	.338	.738	1.232	15.5%	5

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Home89PA	.263	.513	.839	14.3%	5
Away96PA	.256	.605	1.011	10.3%	6

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Day60PA	.204	.519	.902	14.5%	2
🐾Night125PA	.285	.580	.940	10.5%	9

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty55PA	.120	.360	.669	1
Runners On76PA	.360	.719	1.166	7
RISP44PA	.323	.735	1.258	3

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs70PA	.257	.515	.815	4
1 Out55PA	.280	.560	.887	4
2 Outs60PA	.240	.620	1.103	3

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. Home · Night · Thu.