Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

10.1%

+894

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Noah Cameron (LHP) (0.83 HR/9) · park 97

2+ RBI

9.5%

+949

RBI 1+

33.0%

+203

Hits 1+

61.8%

-162

Hits 2+

19.6%

+409

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

8.8%

95% CI · 8.5–9.1%

+1039

Fair odds

1st AB

2.3%

Through AB2

4.3%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park-3%
Wind+9%
Temp+5%
vs SP-1%
Contact-21%
SP Contact-10%
Statcast-7%

🎯 Early-AB cuesvs Noah Cameron (LHP)

·15 mph wind out to OF
·92F game
·Soft contact profile (away) — below league

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0310 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)-1% (×0.99) · blended_proj

Park-3% (×0.97)

Wind+9% (×1.09)

Temp+5% (×1.05)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)-21% (×0.79)

Statcast (barrel/EV)-7% (×0.93)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)-10% (×0.90)

SP Statcast allowed+1% (×1.01)

Discipline0% (×1.00)

HR Odds History

Price range · 6 games

Now

+895

High

+980

Low

+475

Med

+625

Avg

+672

+895

Low +475High +980

BUILDING HISTORY

No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.

Recent — tap a game

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-06-12 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

11.7

Proj PA

358

HR / PA

.033

ISO

.164

wOBA

.329

wRC+

109

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Away2026-06-12 · FG

Season

HR/FB

13.9

Hard%

26.8

FB%

26.5

Pull%

50.7

Soft%

15.9

GB%

47.8

🐾vs LHP

HR/FB

0.0

Hard%

28.6

FB%

25.7

Pull%

48.6

Soft%

14.3

GB%

42.9

vs RHP

HR/FB

18.5

Hard%

26.2

FB%

26.7

Pull%

51.5

Soft%

16.5

GB%

49.5

Home

HR/FB

31.3

Hard%

32.8

FB%

26.2

Pull%

54.1

Soft%

13.1

GB%

42.6

🐾Away

HR/FB

0.0

Hard%

22.1

FB%

26.7

Pull%

48.1

Soft%

18.2

GB%

52.0

🐾 = split that matches tonight (vs LHP, Away). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

3.0 🐾

LEAN

Noah Cameron stingy: only 0.83 HR/9
Historical sweet spot in the order: #1 (52% of career HRs)
93°F — ball flies in warm air
15 mph wind — check direction relative to spray

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.136↓ vs season .23925 PA · 15d

OPS

.513

ISO

.137

RBI

K-BB

10-3

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	HR	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-12	@ KC	4	1	0	0	1	0	.250
06-10	@ LAA	4	0	0	0	0	2	—
06-09	@ LAA	2	0	0	0	1	2	—
06-08	@ LAA	5	0	0	0	0	2	—
06-07	vs ATH	1	0	0	0	0	1	—
06-06	vs ATH	2	1	1	1	1	1	2.000
💣 352ft · 95.3 EV · Sweeper
06-05	vs ATH	4	1	0	0	0	2	.250
05-16	vs TEX	4	1	1	1	0	1	1.000
💣 358ft · 104.5 EV · 4-Seamer

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB. Metrics are this hitter's vs LHP split.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾FF4-Seam FastballvL22PA	.111	.367	8.3	41.7	83	12.5
🐾CHChangeupvL8PA	—	.238	0.0	20.0	100	11.8
🐾FCCutter14PA	—	.297	7.7	33.3	69	16.7
🐾CUCurveball	—	—	—	—	—	—

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHESTONIGHT	.111	.367	8.3	41.7	83	12.5	87	22
vs RHP	.186	.303	10.0	53.3	50	26.3	95	45

CHChangeup

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHPTONIGHT	—	.238	0.0	20.0	100	11.8	87	8
vs RHP	.166	.198	0.0	50.0	50	54.5	95	7

FCCutter

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHP	—	.264	9.1	36.4	73	20.0	95	12

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

vs LHB

🐾vs RHB

vs SHB

Kauffman Stadium. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Altuve.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Hottest from spot #1 — 24 of 46 career HRs (52%).

🐾

Hot spots:#1#3

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast.

Season Statcast

ISO

.138

Barrel %

5.8

Hard Hit %

35.5

Pull % (HRs)

100

xwOBA

.301

xBA

.239

Brl / PA %

3.90

Max EV (mph)

107.3

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

105.2

Avg EV on HRs

103.9

Avg HR Distance (ft)

373

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

0/4

Crushed (105+ mph)

1/4

Avg LA on HRs

32.5°

Brl / PA %

3.90

Sampled across 4 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Noah Cameron · top 3 pitches tonightvs LHP split

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Neutral matchup

FF4-Seam Fastballvs LHP
Use%
29
xwOBA
.367
Whiff%
12.5
HH%
41.7
BRL%
8.3
Pull%
83
CHChangeupvs LHP
Use%
22
xwOBA
.238
Whiff%
11.8
HH%
20.0
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
100
FCCutter
Use%
19
xwOBA
.297
Whiff%
16.7
HH%
33.3
BRL%
7.7
Pull%
69

Noah Cameron (LHP) arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
FF4-Seam Fastball	29.4	12.1	53.7	52	.369	10.6
CHChangeup	21.5	4.5	24.4	64	.275	21.4
FCCutter	19.1	5.9	40.0	77	.360	19.4
CUCurveball⚡ PUT-AWAY	17.0	9.1	26.3	86	.159	28.7

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball29% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	21.4	64.3	57	.480	8.3	16
vs RHB	9.1	54.5	50	.340	10.6	56

CHChangeup22% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	0.0	0.0	67	.136	33.3	8
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	4.9	24.4	63	.290	19.4	58

FCCutter19% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	6.2	37.5	81	.281	25.0	21
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	5.7	40.0	74	.381	17.2	43

CUCurveball⚡ PUT-AWAY17% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	0.0	20.0	100	.153	25.0	8
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	11.8	23.5	82	.160	27.5	41

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 28.7% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #4 (xwOBA .389). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (KC)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Kauffman Stadium (330/410/330 ft) · elev 750ft

4 HRs this season

vs RHP 4vs LHP 0

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

FF🐾4-Seam Fastball2

SLSlider1

STSweeper1

Bats R · Pull side: LF

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
vs RHP152PA	.169	.404	.709	6.3%	5
🐾vs LHP58PA	.041	.265	.610	2.9%	0

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Home101PA	.209	.488	.864	4.5%	5
🐾Away109PA	.071	.263	.522	6.3%	0

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Day75PA	.121	.394	.745	4.7%	1
🐾Night135PA	.143	.353	.649	6.1%	4

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty63PA	.107	.339	.656	1
Runners On88PA	.055	.219	.506	0
RISP50PA	.050	.200	.500	0

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs85PA	.233	.532	.889	4
1 Out59PA	.019	.189	.426	0
2 Outs66PA	.109	.309	.642	1

Count

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0-035PA	.147	.441	.727	1
1-015PA	.067	.400	.733	0
0-119PA	.106	.474	.842	0
2-08PA	.500	.875	1.250	1
0-221PA	.048	.238	.429	0
3-06PA	—	—	1.000	0
1-240PA	.076	.179	.304	1
2-227PA	.116	.308	.493	1
3-227PA	.063	.125	.569	0

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. vs LHP · Away · Night · Sat.