Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Showing tomorrow's slate. Projections and lineups will refine as the slate locks in.

Home Run

14.4%

+595

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Nick Martinez (RHP) (0.70 HR/9) · park 120

2+ RBI

11.9%

+740

RBI 1+

35.2%

+184

Hits 1+

68.4%

-216

Hits 2+

26.6%

+277

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

18.5%

95% CI · 18.1–18.9%

+441

Fair odds

1st AB

4.6%

Through AB2

8.8%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park+20%
vs SP-16%
Contact+11%
SP Contact-13%
Statcast+19%
SP Statcast-4%
Discipline+1%

🎯 Early-AB cuesvs Nick Martinez (RHP)

·SP suppresses HRs (blended_proj)
·HR-friendly park (factor 120)
·Elite batted-ball profile (home) — Pull/Hard/FB/HR-FB above league
·Elite Statcast power (barrel%/EV/bat speed above league)

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0378 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)-16% (×0.84) · blended_proj

Park+20% (×1.20)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp0% (×1.00)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)+11% (×1.11)

Statcast (barrel/EV)+19% (×1.19)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)-13% (×0.87)

SP Statcast allowed-4% (×0.96)

Discipline+1% (×1.01)

HR Odds History

Price range · 17 games · 4 HR

Now

+570

High

+3300

Low

+415

Med

+605

Avg

+929

🐾🐾🐾🐾+570

Low +415🐾 HR money zoneHigh +3300

🐾 PRIME SPOTspot score 100

Tonight's price is in his money zone — he's gone yard 4× priced here.

HR Winners — odds that cashed

🐾+4152026-06-05vs LAAbook line

HomeBat 3rdoff RHP4-Seamer

🐾+8602026-06-02vs ARIbook line

AwayBat 3rdoff RHP4-Seamer

🐾+8252026-05-29vs PHIbook line

HomeBat 3rdoff RHP4-Seamer

🐾+4902026-05-19vs SDbook line

AwayBat 3rdoff RHPSplitter

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-06-14 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

16.6

Proj PA

378

HR / PA

.044

ISO

.211

wOBA

.370

wRC+

137

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Home2026-06-14 · FG

Season

HR/FB

13.2

Hard%

41.7

FB%

36.0

Pull%

35.1

Soft%

10.9

GB%

42.2

vs LHP

HR/FB

11.8

Hard%

31.6

FB%

29.8

Pull%

28.1

Soft%

5.3

GB%

47.4

🐾vs RHP

HR/FB

13.6

Hard%

45.5

FB%

38.3

Pull%

37.7

Soft%

13.0

GB%

40.3

🐾Home

HR/FB

13.5

Hard%

45.0

FB%

33.9

Pull%

33.0

Soft%

11.0

GB%

45.9

Away

HR/FB

12.8

Hard%

38.2

FB%

38.2

Pull%

37.3

Soft%

10.8

GB%

38.2

🐾 = split that matches tonight (vs RHP, Home). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

4.0 🐾

STRONG PLAY

UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium is a hitter's haven (+20 for LHB)
Nick Martinez stingy: only 0.70 HR/9
Crushes 1/3 of SP's top pitches (FC)
Historical sweet spot in the order: #3 (88% of career HRs)
Park boost (120)
High barrels/PA (8.1%)
Pitcher suppresses HR (0.70 HR/9)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.294↑ vs season .27959 PA · 15d

OPS

.807

ISO

.157

RBI

K-BB

10-4

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	HR	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-13	@ CHW	5	0	0	0	0	1	—
06-12	@ CHW	3	0	0	0	0	2	—
06-11	@ PIT	3	1	0	1	1	0	.333
06-10	@ PIT	4	1	0	0	1	0	.500
06-09	@ PIT	4	2	0	1	1	1	.750
06-07	vs LAA	5	2	0	0	0	1	.400
06-06	vs LAA	2	1	0	0	0	0	.500
06-05	vs LAA	3	2	1	1	1	1	1.667
💣 404ft · 105.8 EV · 4-Seamer

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB. Metrics are this hitter's vs RHP split.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾SISinkervR31PA	.087	.362	5.3	47.4	58	25.0
🐾CHChangeupvR30PA	—	.339	8.3	62.5	75	16.4
🐾FCCuttervR18PA	.333	.400	13.3	46.7	53	13.3
🐾FF4-Seam FastballvR66PA	.362	.436	14.6	47.9	50	15.4

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

SISinker

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	.185	.279	4.0	36.0	56	12.3	86	28
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHESTONIGHT	.087	.362	5.3	47.4	58	25.0	151	31

CHChangeup

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	—	.292	20.0	20.0	60	9.1	86	6
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHESTONIGHT	—	.339	8.3	62.5	75	16.4	151	30

FCCutter

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES	—	.467	0.0	0.0	25	20.0	86	6
vs RHPTONIGHT	.333	.400	13.3	46.7	53	13.3	151	18

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	.191	.329	8.3	41.7	42	31.4	86	26
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHESTONIGHT	.362	.436	14.6	47.9	50	15.4	151	66

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

🐾vs LHB

120

vs RHB

119

vs SHB

119

UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Freeman.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Hottest from spot #3 — 42 of 48 career HRs (88%).

🐾

Hot spots:#3

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast.

Season Statcast

ISO

.190

Barrel %

11.4

Hard Hit %

45.5

Pull % (HRs)

xwOBA

.373

xBA

.279

Brl / PA %

8.10

Max EV (mph)

110.3

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

110.0

Avg EV on HRs

105.3

Avg HR Distance (ft)

401

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

1/7

Crushed (105+ mph)

3/7

Avg LA on HRs

31.4°

Brl / PA %

8.10

Sampled across 7 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Nick Martinez · top 3 pitches tonightvs RHP split

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

🐾 HIGH EXPLOIT

SISinkervs RHP
Use%
31
xwOBA
.362
Whiff%
25.0
HH%
47.4
BRL%
5.3
Pull%
58
CHChangeupvs RHP
Use%
28
xwOBA
.339
Whiff%
16.4
HH%
62.5
BRL%
8.3
Pull%
75
FCCuttervs RHP
Use%
20
xwOBA
.400
Whiff%
13.3
HH%
46.7
BRL%
13.3
Pull%
53
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.

Career vs Nick Martinez (RHP)

🐾 Tonight's matchup

—AVG · small sample (1 PA)

OPS

—

RBI

K-BB

0-0

Nick Martinez (RHP) arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
SISinker⚡ PUT-AWAY	31.4	6.5	40.7	59	.337	21.9
CHChangeup	28.0	1.4	15.0	61	.204	19.6
FCCutter	19.5	8.1	25.4	61	.364	19.0
FF4-Seam Fastball	10.5	10.8	57.1	60	.440	9.1

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

SISinker⚡ PUT-AWAY31% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	9.1	63.6	52	.299	25.0	47
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	5.0	31.7	63	.366	15.8	68

CHChangeup28% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	1.8	19.6	61	.221	18.8	72
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	0.0	6.2	63	.157	16.4	27

FCCutter20% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	6.7	22.2	67	.340	20.0	50
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	10.3	37.9	52	.402	12.5	31

FF4-Seam Fastball11% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	13.0	52.2	74	.410	12.5	27
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	7.1	50.0	36	.504	4.2	17

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 21.9% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #5 (xwOBA .566). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (LAD)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Dodger Stadium (330/395/330 ft) · elev 512ft

7 HRs this season

vs RHP 5vs LHP 2

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

FF🐾4-Seam Fastball4

CUCurveball1

SISinker1

FSSplitter1

Bats L · Pull side: RF

HR Drought — when he's due

HR Drought

games since last HR

PAs since last HR

Homers about every 8.0 games · 35 PA (1 HR in 8 G)

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾vs RHP209PA	.220	.522	.905	12.2%	8
vs LHP89PA	.118	.329	.644	8.1%	2

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Home142PA	.157	.409	.719	8.9%	5
Away156PA	.221	.519	.929	13.6%	5

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Day80PA	.099	.310	.585	6.5%	1
🐾Night218PA	.225	.524	.918	12.8%	9

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty106PA	.192	.511	.907	3
Runners On137PA	.171	.427	.770	4
RISP70PA	.254	.559	.930	3

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs95PA	.175	.413	.760	4
1 Out115PA	.193	.481	.820	4
2 Outs88PA	.203	.500	.909	2

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. vs RHP · Home · Night · Mon.