Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

17.0%

+490

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Matthew Liberatore (1.79 HR/9) · park 97

Batting #6Projected lineup

2+ RBI

13.3%

+651

RBI 1+

36.5%

+174

Hits 1+

58.7%

-142

Hits 2+

16.9%

+493

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

14.9%

95% CI · 14.5–15.3%

+570

Fair odds

1st AB

4.1%

Through AB2

7.9%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park-3%
Wind-2%
vs SP+4%
Contact-2%
SP Contact+3%
SP Statcast+3%

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0425 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)+4% (×1.04) · blended_proj

Park-3% (×0.97)

Wind-2% (×0.98)

Temp0% (×1.00)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)-2% (×0.98)

Statcast (barrel/EV)+1% (×1.01)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)+3% (×1.03)

SP Statcast allowed+3% (×1.03)

Discipline+0% (×1.00)

HR Odds History

Price range · 18 games

Now

+805

High

+1500

Low

+340

Med

+785

Avg

+748

+805

Low +340High +1500

BUILDING HISTORY

No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.

HR Winners — odds that cashed

No priced HR games in the tracked window yet.

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-07-16 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

11.9

Proj PA

230

HR / PA

.052

ISO

.218

wOBA

.331

wRC+

108

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Home2026-07-16 · FG

Season

HR/FB

9.4

Hard%

36.7

FB%

42.1

Pull%

43.9

Soft%

14.7

GB%

37.4

vs LHP

HR/FB

12.1

Hard%

41.8

FB%

41.8

Pull%

49.4

Soft%

8.9

GB%

34.2

vs RHP

HR/FB

8.3

Hard%

34.7

FB%

42.2

Pull%

41.7

Soft%

17.1

GB%

38.7

🐾Home

HR/FB

11.8

Hard%

41.2

FB%

38.9

Pull%

38.9

Soft%

14.5

GB%

38.2

Away

HR/FB

7.6

Hard%

32.7

FB%

44.9

Pull%

48.3

Soft%

15.0

GB%

36.7

🐾 = split that matches tonight (Home). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

5.0 🐾

ELITE BIG DAWG ENERGY

Matthew Liberatore is leaky — 1.79 HR/9 allowed
Historical sweet spot in the order: #4 (61% of career HRs)
High barrels/PA (5.8%)
Pitcher HR-prone (1.79 HR/9)
Pitcher high contact-quality allowed (10.2% brl)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.167↓ vs season .22249 PA · 15d

OPS

.330

ISO

—

RBI

K-BB

9-0

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	K	SLG
06-17	@ WSH	5	1	0	.200
06-16	@ WSH	4	1	0	.250
06-15	@ WSH	4	0	2	—
06-14	vs HOU	4	0	2	—
06-13	vs HOU	4	1	1	.250
06-12	vs HOU	5	3	0	.600
06-10	vs TEX	5	0	2	—
06-09	vs TEX	4	0	0	—

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾FF4-Seam Fastball74PA	.147	.350	17.6	56.0	49	23.6
🐾SLSlider48PA	.022	.231	5.0	30.8	60	32.3
🐾CUCurveball32PA	.258	.215	5.0	39.1	50	30.2
🐾CHChangeup26PA	.120	.159	4.5	33.3	77	20.7

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES	.334	.437	25.0	75.0	50	25.0	91	20
vs RHP	.077	.320	15.4	51.3	49	21.4	36	56

SLSlider

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES	.143	.458	14.3	57.1	71	23.1	91	8
vs RHP	—	.187	3.0	24.2	58	31.7	36	43

CUCurveball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES	.300	.292	0.0	50.0	88	21.1	91	11
vs RHP	.214	.192	8.3	25.0	25	24.0	36	14

CHChangeup

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES	.300	.184	5.9	47.1	82	22.2	91	21
vs RHP	—	.076	0.0	0.0	60	15.8	36	6

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

vs LHB

🐾vs RHB

vs SHB

Kauffman Stadium. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Perez.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Tonight: Batting #6Projected0 of 31 HRs · 0%

🐾 Hottest from spot #4 — 19 of 31 career HRs (61%).

🐾

Hot spots:#4

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast. 🐾 jade outline = tonight's spot.

Season Statcast

ISO

.122

Barrel %

7.8

Hard Hit %

39.9

Pull % (HRs)

xwOBA

.282

xBA

.222

Brl / PA %

5.80

Max EV (mph)

111.2

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

111.2

Avg EV on HRs

104.7

Avg HR Distance (ft)

397

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

1/9

Crushed (105+ mph)

6/9

Avg LA on HRs

26.7°

Brl / PA %

5.80

Sampled across 9 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Matthew Liberatore · top 3 pitches tonight

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Tough matchup

FF4-Seam Fastball
Use%
33
xwOBA
.350
Whiff%
23.6
HH%
56.0
BRL%
17.6
Pull%
49
SLSlider
Use%
21
xwOBA
.231
Whiff%
32.3
HH%
30.8
BRL%
5.0
Pull%
60
⚠ Struggles against this pitch in 48 PA this season.
CUCurveball
Use%
16
xwOBA
.215
Whiff%
30.2
HH%
39.1
BRL%
5.0
Pull%
50
⚠ Struggles against this pitch in 32 PA this season.

Career vs Matthew Liberatore

🐾 Tonight's matchup

.500AVG · small sample (2 PA)

OPS

2.500

RBI

K-BB

0-0

Matthew Liberatore arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
FF4-Seam Fastball	33.4	12.5	47.4	48	.449	10.4
SLSlider⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	21.4	14.9	43.5	62	.293	27.7
CUCurveball	16.4	13.3	35.7	60	.208	19.8
CHChangeup	15.4	4.4	32.6	67	.383	9.5

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball33% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	16.7	58.3	42	.613	13.6	19
vs RHB	11.8	47.1	49	.421	10.2	89

SLSlider⚡ PUT-AWAY21% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	20.0	48.0	60	.332	33.3	40
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	9.1	40.9	64	.261	25.6	46

CUCurveball16% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	no sample
vs RHB	15.4	38.5	62	.209	20.8	31

CHChangeup15% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	no sample
vs RHB	4.4	31.1	67	.383	13.6	53

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 27.7% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #5 (xwOBA .466). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (KC)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Kauffman Stadium (330/410/330 ft) · elev 750ft

9 HRs this season

vs RHP 6vs LHP 3

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

SI🐾Sinker3

FF4-Seam Fastball2

CHChangeup2

CUCurveball1

KCKnuckle-Curve1

Bats R · Pull side: LF

HR Drought — when he's due

HR Drought

games since last HR

PAs since last HR

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
vs RHP215PA	.104	.292	.515	8.5%	6
vs LHP76PA	.177	.412	.715	10.2%	3

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Home148PA	.109	.321	.585	8.4%	4
Away143PA	.135	.323	.547	9.4%	5

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Day107PA	.101	.253	.449	6.1%	3
🐾Night184PA	.135	.363	.635	10.6%	6

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty74PA	.242	.471	.741	5
Runners On133PA	.050	.207	.410	1
RISP85PA	.054	.189	.389	1

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs114PA	.102	.336	.617	3
1 Out88PA	.136	.321	.526	3
2 Outs89PA	.134	.305	.541	3

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. Home · Night · Thu.