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Salvador PerezRHB
KC
📅 Tomorrow5:10 PM MT · Kauffman Stadium
Showing tomorrow's slate. Projections and lineups will refine as the slate locks in.
Home Run
16.7%
+499
🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾
Big Dawg Energy
vs Mike Burrows (RHP) (2.09 HR/9) · park 97
2+ RBI
13.2%
+659
RBI 1+
36.4%
+175
Hits 1+
58.7%
-142
Hits 2+
16.9%
+493
FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo
30k iter
19.0%
95% CI · 18.6–19.5%
+425
Fair odds
1st AB
5.5%
Through AB2
10.9%
Best window
Early
What shifted the projection
  • Park-3%
  • Wind+3%
  • Temp+5%
  • vs SP+27%
  • SP Contact+3%
  • Statcast+3%
🎯 Early-AB cuesvs Mike Burrows (RHP)
  • ·SP is HR-vulnerable (blended_proj)
  • ·10 mph wind out to OF
  • ·94F game
▸Model inputs
Base HR/PA0.0423 · blended_3sys
TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00
Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant
vs SP (HR/9)+27% (×1.27) · blended_proj
Park-3% (×0.97)
Wind+3% (×1.03)
Temp+5% (×1.05)
Lineup0% (×1.00)
Contact (batted-ball)-1% (×0.99)
Statcast (barrel/EV)+3% (×1.03)
Pitch match0% (×1.00)
SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)
SP contact (batted-ball)+3% (×1.03)
SP Statcast allowed+1% (×1.01)
Discipline-0% (×1.00)
HR Odds History
Price range · 13 games · 1 HR
Now
+500
High
+880
Low
+365
Med
+675
Avg
+641
🐾+500
Low +365🐾 HR money zoneHigh +880
🐾 PRIME+ SPOTspot score 100

Even shorter than his HR range — likelier than when he's gone yard 1× priced here.

⚠ Thin sample (1 HR game) — a hint, not a lock.

Recent — tap a game

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)
Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)
2026-06-12 · THE BAT X
Proj HR (RoS)
16.7
Proj PA
346
HR / PA
.048
ISO
.207
wOBA
.329
wRC+
105
2026 Contact Profile
🐾 Tonight: Home2026-06-12 · FG
Season
HR/FB
10.2
Hard%
33.0
FB%
44.7
Pull%
41.6
Soft%
14.7
GB%
37.6
vs LHP
HR/FB
15.8
Hard%
38.0
FB%
38.0
Pull%
52.0
Soft%
6.0
GB%
38.0
🐾vs RHP
HR/FB
8.7
Hard%
31.3
FB%
46.9
Pull%
38.1
Soft%
17.7
GB%
37.4
🐾Home
HR/FB
9.3
Hard%
35.1
FB%
44.3
Pull%
35.1
Soft%
15.5
GB%
39.2
Away
HR/FB
11.1
Hard%
31.0
FB%
45.0
Pull%
48.0
Soft%
14.0
GB%
36.0

🐾 = split that matches tonight (vs RHP, Home). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick
5.0 🐾
ELITE BIG DAWG ENERGY
  • Mike Burrows is leaky — 2.09 HR/9 allowed
  • Historical sweet spot in the order: #4 (61% of career HRs)
  • 95°F — ball flies in warm air
  • High barrels/PA (6.0%)
  • Pitcher HR-prone (2.09 HR/9)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days
🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup
.163↓ vs season .22247 PA · 15d
OPS
.399
ISO
.023
HR
0
RBI
1
K-BB
6-2
Game Log · Last 8
DateOppABHHRRBIBBKSLG
06-12vs HOU530000.600
06-10vs TEX500002—
06-09vs TEX400000—
06-05@ MIN400000—
06-04@ MIN410100.250
06-03@ CIN510002.200
06-02@ CIN410010.250
05-31@ TEX400001—
vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB. Metrics are this hitter's vs RHP split.

PitchISOxwOBABRL%HH%Pull%Whiff%
🐾FFvR51PA.085.31114.351.44322.5
🐾CHvR4PA—.0180.0—50—
🐾SLvR38PA—.1813.420.75234.7
🐾CUvR12PA.250.2219.127.32723.8
Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP
FF4-Seam Fastball
SplitISOxwOBABRL%HH%Pull%Whiff%wRC+PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES.334.43725.075.05026.510820
vs RHPTONIGHT.085.31114.351.44322.53651
CHChangeup
SplitISOxwOBABRL%HH%Pull%Whiff%wRC+PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES.315.1816.243.88123.310820
vs RHPTONIGHT—.0180.00.0500.0364
SLSlider
SplitISOxwOBABRL%HH%Pull%Whiff%wRC+PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES.200.54720.040.0600.01086
vs RHPTONIGHT—.1813.420.75234.73638
CUCurveball
SplitISOxwOBABRL%HH%Pull%Whiff%wRC+PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES.375.3620.057.110020.01089
vs RHPTONIGHT.250.2219.127.32723.83612
Ballpark — Tonight's Venue
vs LHB
79
🐾vs RHB
97
vs SHB
88

Kauffman Stadium. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Perez.

HR by Lineup Spot
🐾 Hottest from spot #4 — 19 of 31 career HRs (61%).
1
·
2
·
4
3
·
19
4
🐾
8
5
·
6
·
7
·
8
·
9
·
Hot spots:#4

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast.

Season Statcast
ISO
.135
Barrel %
8.1
Hard Hit %
40.1
Pull % (HRs)
67
xwOBA
.288
xBA
.222
Brl / PA %
6.00
Max EV (mph)
111.2
Exit Velocity Profile
Max EV (mph)
111.2
Avg EV on HRs
104.7
Avg HR Distance (ft)
397
HRs in sample
9
No-doubters (110+ mph)
1/9
Crushed (105+ mph)
6/9
Avg LA on HRs
26.7°
Brl / PA %
6.00

Sampled across 9 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup
Mike Burrows · top 3 pitches tonightvs RHP split
🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾
Tough matchup
  • FF4-Seam Fastballvs RHP
    Use%
    29
    xwOBA
    .311
    Whiff%
    22.5
    HH%
    51.4
    BRL%
    14.3
    Pull%
    43
  • CHChangeupvs RHP
    Use%
    28
    xwOBA
    .018
    Whiff%
    0.0
    HH%
    0.0
    BRL%
    0.0
    Pull%
    50
  • SLSlidervs RHP
    Use%
    15
    xwOBA
    .181
    Whiff%
    34.7
    HH%
    20.7
    BRL%
    3.4
    Pull%
    52

    ⚠ Struggles against this pitch in 38 PA this season.

Mike Burrows (RHP) arsenal (Top 3)
PitchUse%BRL%-AHH%-APull%xwOBAPut%
FF28.816.750.852.43414.3
CH27.53.227.176.28118.6
SL⚡ PUT-AWAY15.36.131.159.30121.8
CU14.624.045.568.31917.7
Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB
FF4-Seam Fastball29% use
SplitBRL%-AHH%-APull%xwOBAPut%PA
vs LHB18.056.050.44113.066
vs RHB12.550.056.41614.723
CHChangeup28% use
SplitBRL%-AHH%-APull%xwOBAPut%PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT3.623.675.30010.871
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY0.057.186.21634.322
SLSlider⚡ PUT-AWAY15% use
SplitBRL%-AHH%-APull%xwOBAPut%PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT14.338.167.41124.232
vs RHB0.025.054.19113.332
CUCurveball15% use
SplitBRL%-AHH%-APull%xwOBAPut%PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT26.746.773.39115.420
vs RHB20.030.060.23718.418

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 21.8% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap
🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal
Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

.31.31.35.31.47🐾.40.37.44.36
🐾 Hottest zone: #5 (xwOBA .466). Hover any cell for detail.
Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.
Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)
🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (KC)
CFLFRF330ft410ft330ftFFCHSIFFSICHCUKCSI
Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.
Overlay: Kauffman Stadium (330/410/330 ft) · elev 750ft
9 HRs this season
vs RHP 6vs LHP 3
Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)
SI🐾Sinker3
FF4-Seam Fastball2
CHChangeup2
CUCurveball1
KCKnuckle-Curve1
Bats R · Pull side: LF
Splits — Today's Matchup
Handedness
SplitISOSLGOPSBRL%HR
🐾vs RHP200PA.112.305.5358.6%6
vs LHP70PA.193.435.74911.5%3
Location
SplitISOSLGOPSBRL%HR
🐾Home140PA.116.333.6048.2%4
Away130PA.150.342.57310.4%5
Time
SplitISOSLGOPSBRL%HR
Day98PA.111.267.4716.7%3
🐾Night172PA.144.377.65610.9%6
Base State
SplitISOSLGOPSHR
Bases Empty68PA.265.484.7495
Runners On125PA.053.221.4371
RISP82PA.056.197.4041
Outs
SplitISOSLGOPSHR
0 Outs107PA.110.350.6403
1 Out83PA.145.342.5593
2 Outs80PA.151.315.5533
Count
SplitISOSLGOPSHR
0-038PA.352.622.9114
1-022PA.450.8001.1643
0-124PA.043.304.5960
2-03PA—.6671.3330
0-232PA.094.188.2811
3-01PA———0
1-242PA.047.214.3810
2-241PA.103.282.4771
3-229PA.150.250.6291

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. vs RHP · Home · Night · Sat.