Showing tomorrow's slate. Projections and lineups will refine as the slate locks in.
Home Run
11.2%
+792
🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾
Big Dawg Energy
vs J.T. Ginn (RHP) (1.01 HR/9) · park 114
Batting #1Projected lineup
2+ RBI
10.2%
+884
RBI 1+
33.6%
+198
Hits 1+
59.2%
-145
Hits 2+
17.3%
+477
FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo
30k iter
12.8%
95% CI · 12.5–13.2%
+679
Fair odds
1st AB
3.3%
Through AB2
6.5%
Best window
Early
What shifted the projection
Park+14%
Temp+5%
vs SP-2%
Contact-16%
SP Contact-1%
Statcast+2%
SP Statcast-4%
Discipline-1%
🎯 Early-AB cuesvs J.T. Ginn (RHP)
·HR-friendly park (factor 114)
·93F game
·Soft contact profile (away) — below league
▸Model inputs
Base HR/PA0.0376 · blended_3sys
TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00
Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant
vs SP (HR/9)-2% (×0.98) · blended_proj
Park+14% (×1.14)
Wind0% (×1.00)
Temp+5% (×1.05)
Lineup0% (×1.00)
Contact (batted-ball)-16% (×0.84)
Statcast (barrel/EV)+2% (×1.02)
Pitch match0% (×1.00)
SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)
SP contact (batted-ball)-1% (×0.99)
SP Statcast allowed-4% (×0.96)
Discipline-1% (×0.99)
HR Odds History
Price range · 14 games
Now
+790
High
+1145
Low
+460
Med
+678
Avg
+723
+790
Low +460High +1145
BUILDING HISTORY
No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.
HR Winners — odds that cashed
No priced HR games in the tracked window yet.
🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.
▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)
Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)
2026-06-14 · THE BAT X
Proj HR (RoS)
9.6
Proj PA
244
HR / PA
.039
ISO
.182
wOBA
.335
wRC+
110
2026 Contact Profile
🐾 Tonight: Away2026-06-14 · FG
Season
HR/FB
8.8
Hard%
32.3
FB%
44.9
Pull%
38.6
Soft%
17.3
GB%
29.9
vs LHP
HR/FB
12.5
Hard%
42.1
FB%
42.1
Pull%
42.1
Soft%
10.5
GB%
28.9
🐾vs RHP
HR/FB
7.3
Hard%
28.1
FB%
46.1
Pull%
37.1
Soft%
20.2
GB%
30.3
Home
HR/FB
16.0
Hard%
37.5
FB%
39.1
Pull%
42.2
Soft%
20.3
GB%
32.8
🐾Away
HR/FB
3.1
Hard%
27.0
FB%
50.8
Pull%
34.9
Soft%
14.3
GB%
27.0
🐾 = split that matches tonight (vs RHP, Away). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).
Why this pick
3.0 🐾
LEAN
🏟Sutter Health Park mild HR boost (+14)
📍Historical sweet spot in the order: #3 (60% of career HRs)
🌡93°F — ball flies in warm air
·Park boost (114)
·High barrels/PA (4.8%)
Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.
Last 15 Days
🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup
.267↑ vs season .22516 PA · 15d
OPS
.580
ISO
—
HR
0
RBI
2
K-BB
4-1
Game Log · Last 8
Date
Opp
AB
H
HR
RBI
BB
K
SLG
06-11
vs LAD
2
0
0
0
0
0
—
06-09
vs LAD
4
1
0
1
0
2
.250
06-07
@ ATL
3
0
0
0
0
2
—
06-05
@ ATL
4
2
0
1
0
0
.500
06-03
@ HOU
2
1
0
0
1
0
.500
05-27
vs CHC
4
1
0
0
0
1
.250
05-26
vs CHC
5
1
0
1
0
2
.200
05-25
vs CHC
4
0
0
0
0
3
—
vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4
🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB. Metrics are this hitter's vs RHP split.
Pitch
ISO
xwOBA
BRL%
HH%
Pull%
Whiff%
🐾SISinkervR47PA
.117
.314
2.9
41.2
68
12.3
🐾FCCuttervR9PA
—
.105
0.0
16.7
50
23.8
🐾CHChangeupvR7PA
—
.291
0.0
33.3
67
36.8
🐾SLSlidervR21PA
—
.196
10.0
20.0
70
47.9
Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP
SISinker
Split
ISO
xwOBA
BRL%
HH%
Pull%
Whiff%
wRC+
PA
vs LHP
.125
.298
0.0
42.9
29
8.3
99
9
vs RHPTONIGHT
.117
.314
2.9
41.2
68
12.3
43
47
FCCutter
Split
ISO
xwOBA
BRL%
HH%
Pull%
Whiff%
wRC+
PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES
.600
.452
33.3
33.3
67
46.2
99
6
vs RHPTONIGHT
—
.105
0.0
16.7
50
23.8
43
9
CHChangeup
Split
ISO
xwOBA
BRL%
HH%
Pull%
Whiff%
wRC+
PA
vs LHP
—
.217
0.0
33.3
100
50.0
99
13
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHESTONIGHT
—
.291
0.0
33.3
67
36.8
43
7
SLSlider
Split
ISO
xwOBA
BRL%
HH%
Pull%
Whiff%
wRC+
PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES
.428
.453
25.0
75.0
100
36.8
99
8
vs RHPTONIGHT
—
.196
10.0
20.0
70
47.9
43
21
Ballpark — Tonight's Venue
vs LHB
95
🐾vs RHB
114
vs SHB
104
Sutter Health Park. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Ozuna.
HR by Lineup Spot
🐾 Tonight: Batting #1Projected0 of 47 HRs · 0%
🐾 Hottest from spot #3 — 28 of 47 career HRs (60%).
Sampled across 5 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.
Tonight's Pitch Matchup
J.T. Ginn · top 3 pitches tonightvs RHP split
🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾
Tough matchup
SISinkervs RHP
Use%
35
xwOBA
.314
Whiff%
12.3
HH%
41.2
BRL%
2.9
Pull%
68
FCCuttervs RHP
Use%
19
xwOBA
.105
Whiff%
23.8
HH%
16.7
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
50
CHChangeupvs RHP
Use%
18
xwOBA
.291
Whiff%
36.8
HH%
33.3
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
67
Career vs J.T. Ginn (RHP)
🐾 Tonight's matchup
—AVG · small sample (1 PA)
OPS
—
HR
0
RBI
0
K-BB
0-0
J.T. Ginn (RHP) arsenal (Top 3)
Pitch
Use%
BRL%-A
HH%-A
Pull%
xwOBA
Put%
SISinker⚡ PUT-AWAY
35.0
6.8
41.2
62
.351
29.1
FCCutter
18.6
8.3
38.2
75
.343
15.8
CHChangeup
18.3
5.6
26.5
75
.180
23.1
SLSlider
16.0
5.7
39.4
66
.292
20.0
Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB
SISinker⚡ PUT-AWAY35% use
Split
BRL%-A
HH%-A
Pull%
xwOBA
Put%
PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT
9.4
40.6
75
.404
25.6
51
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY
4.8
45.2
52
.309
31.4
68
FCCutter19% use
Split
BRL%-A
HH%-A
Pull%
xwOBA
Put%
PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT
13.6
50.0
82
.454
12.5
31
vs RHB
0.0
21.4
64
.143
—
15
CHChangeup18% use
Split
BRL%-A
HH%-A
Pull%
xwOBA
Put%
PA
vs LHB
5.9
29.4
77
.190
24.2
51
vs RHB
no sample
SLSlider16% use
Split
BRL%-A
HH%-A
Pull%
xwOBA
Put%
PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT
5.6
50.0
50
.391
18.5
24
vs RHB
5.9
35.3
82
.202
19.1
26
🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 29.1% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.
Strike Zone Heatmap
🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal
Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches
Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.
🐾 Hottest zone: #5 (xwOBA .446). Hover any cell for detail.
Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.
Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)
🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (ATH)
Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.
Overlay: Sutter Health Park (325/403/325 ft) · elev 27ft
5 HRs this season
vs RHP 3vs LHP 2
Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)
FF🐾4-Seam Fastball2
SISinker1
FCCutter1
SLSlider1
Bats R · Pull side: LF
HR Drought — when he's due
HR Drought
8
games since last HR
29
PAs since last HR
Splits — Today's Matchup
Handedness
Split
ISO
SLG
OPS
BRL%
HR
🐾vs RHP143PA
.091
.267
.512
5.9%
3
vs LHP65PA
.143
.375
.713
10.3%
2
Location
Split
ISO
SLG
OPS
BRL%
HR
Home103PA
.154
.381
.653
9.5%
4
🐾Away105PA
.055
.211
.487
4.5%
1
Time
Split
ISO
SLG
OPS
BRL%
HR
Day93PA
.110
.293
.573
8.2%
2
🐾Night115PA
.105
.305
.575
6.2%
3
Base State
Split
ISO
SLG
OPS
HR
Bases Empty60PA
—
.125
.308
0
Runners On109PA
.160
.362
.674
4
RISP66PA
.090
.286
.604
1
Outs
Split
ISO
SLG
OPS
HR
0 Outs66PA
.136
.356
.659
2
1 Out78PA
.072
.186
.391
1
2 Outs64PA
.120
.379
.707
2
🐾 = the split that matches tonight. vs RHP · Away · Night · Mon.
