Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

12.6%

+697

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Joe Ryan (0.88 HR/9) · park 91

Batting #9Confirmed lineup

2+ RBI

10.9%

+817

RBI 1+

34.3%

+192

Hits 1+

63.7%

-175

Hits 2+

21.5%

+365

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

15.9%

95% CI · 15.5–16.3%

+528

Fair odds

1st AB

4.3%

Through AB2

8.5%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park-9%
Temp+5%
vs SP+1%
Contact+12%
SP Contact-10%
Statcast+14%
SP Statcast+3%

🎯 Early-AB cues

·93F game
·Elite batted-ball profile (home) — Pull/Hard/FB/HR-FB above league
·Elite Statcast power (barrel%/EV/bat speed above league)

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0378 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)+1% (×1.01) · blended_proj

Park-9% (×0.91)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp+5% (×1.05)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)+12% (×1.12)

Statcast (barrel/EV)+14% (×1.14)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)-10% (×0.90)

SP Statcast allowed+3% (×1.03)

Discipline-1% (×0.99)

HR Odds History

Price range · 6 games

Now

+660

High

+4510

Low

+450

Med

+698

Avg

+1320

+660

Low +450High +4510

BUILDING HISTORY

No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.

HR Winners — odds that cashed

No priced HR games in the tracked window yet.

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-07-16 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

4.9

Proj PA

127

HR / PA

.038

ISO

.168

wOBA

.292

wRC+

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Home2026-07-16 · FG

Season

HR/FB

13.7

Hard%

24.8

FB%

45.9

Pull%

38.9

Soft%

13.3

GB%

33.3

vs LHP

HR/FB

15.8

Hard%

24.2

FB%

57.6

Pull%

42.4

Soft%

21.2

GB%

21.2

vs RHP

HR/FB

12.5

Hard%

25.0

FB%

41.0

Pull%

37.5

Soft%

10.0

GB%

38.5

🐾Home

HR/FB

18.2

Hard%

29.4

FB%

43.1

Pull%

41.2

Soft%

3.9

GB%

33.3

Away

HR/FB

10.3

Hard%

21.0

FB%

48.3

Pull%

37.1

Soft%

21.0

GB%

33.3

🐾 = split that matches tonight (Home). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

3.0 🐾

LEAN

Globe Life Field suppresses HRs (91)
Joe Ryan stingy: only 0.88 HR/9
94°F — ball flies in warm air
Park drag (91)
High barrels/PA (6.2%)
Pitcher high contact-quality allowed (10.5% brl)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.238↓ vs season .25025 PA · 15d

OPS

.884

ISO

.286

RBI

K-BB

4-4

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	HR	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-15	vs MIN	0	0	0	0	0	0	—
06-14	@ BOS	4	2	1	3	0	0	1.250
💣 381ft · 100.2 EV · Changeup
06-13	@ BOS	0	0	0	0	0	0	—
06-12	@ BOS	3	0	0	0	0	0	—
06-10	@ KC	2	0	0	0	2	1	—
06-09	@ KC	4	0	0	0	0	2	—
06-06	vs CLE	3	1	0	0	0	0	.333
06-05	vs CLE	3	1	1	1	0	1	1.333
💣 428ft · 106.5 EV · Sinker

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾FF4-Seam Fastball25PA	.046	.328	14.3	55.6	57	14.6
🐾STSweeper13PA	—	.203	0.0	30.0	70	28.6
🐾CUCurveball	—	—	—	—	—	—
🐾SISinker37PA	.290	.428	15.4	44.0	69	13.2

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	.143	.172	0.0	33.3	67	18.2	167	7
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHES	.105	.378	20.0	66.7	53	8.1	82	23

STSweeper

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHP	—	.220	0.0	33.3	67	28.6	82	13

SISinker

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES	.600	.650	20.0	40.0	40	0.0	167	7
vs RHP	.223	.377	14.3	47.6	76	16.7	82	31

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

vs LHB

🐾vs RHB

vs SHB

Globe Life Field. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Higashioka.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Tonight: Batting #9Confirmed0 of 2 HRs · 0%

🐾 Hottest from spot #7 — 1 of 2 career HRs (50%).

🐾

Hot spots:#7#8

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast. 🐾 jade outline = tonight's spot.

Season Statcast

Barrel %

7.5

Pull % (HRs)

100

xBA

.250

Brl / PA %

6.18

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

107.1

Avg EV on HRs

103.4

Avg HR Distance (ft)

391

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

0/2

Crushed (105+ mph)

1/2

Avg LA on HRs

26.5°

Brl / PA %

6.18

Sampled across 2 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Joe Ryan · top 3 pitches tonight

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Neutral matchup

FF4-Seam Fastball
Use%
44
xwOBA
.328
Whiff%
14.6
HH%
55.6
BRL%
14.3
Pull%
57
STSweeper
Use%
14
xwOBA
.203
Whiff%
28.6
HH%
30.0
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
70
CUCurveball
Use%
12
xwOBA
—
Whiff%
—
HH%
—
BRL%
—
Pull%
—

Career vs Joe Ryan

🐾 Tonight's matchup

—AVG · small sample (2 PA)

OPS

—

RBI

K-BB

1-0

Joe Ryan arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
FF4-Seam Fastball	44.1	12.6	48.5	56	.310	18.4
STSweeper⚡ PUT-AWAY	14.0	10.0	28.6	77	.234	32.1
CUCurveball	12.2	—	24.0	—	.219	21.3
SISinker	11.8	10.0	50.0	45	.301	17.4

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball44% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	13.3	50.7	57	.308	23.4	105
vs RHB	11.1	47.2	53	.311	13.4	56

STSweeper⚡ PUT-AWAY14% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	16.7	41.7	75	.331	33.3	18
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	5.6	22.2	78	.180	30.2	33

SISinker12% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	0.0	33.3	58	.301	21.1	20
vs RHB	14.3	64.3	39	.304	12.9	32

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 32.1% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #3 (xwOBA .460). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (TEX)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Globe Life Field (329/407/326 ft) · elev 591ft

2 HRs this season

vs RHP 2vs LHP 0

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

SISinker1

FCCutter1

Bats R · Pull side: LF

HR Drought — when he's due

HR Drought

games since last HR

PAs since last HR

Homers about every 4.0 games · 11 PA (2 HR in 8 G)

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
vs RHP103PA	.120	.337	.638	11.1%	3
vs LHP25PA	.305	.609	.969	10.5%	2

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Home50PA	.171	.426	.726	15.0%	2
Away78PA	.147	.368	.689	7.8%	3

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Day37PA	.117	.382	.706	7.1%	1
Night91PA	.173	.395	.703	12.7%	4

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty42PA	.075	.250	.464	1
Runners On55PA	.153	.370	.715	2
RISP32PA	.120	.320	.695	1

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs49PA	.311	.622	.989	4
1 Out36PA	—	.161	.439	0
2 Outs43PA	.103	.308	.587	1

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. Home · Day · Thu.