Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

15.3%

+552

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Aaron Nola (RHP) (1.67 HR/9) · park 92

Batting #6Projected lineup

2+ RBI

12.4%

+704

RBI 1+

35.7%

+180

Hits 1+

65.3%

-189

Hits 2+

23.2%

+331

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

14.3%

95% CI · 13.9–14.6%

+601

Fair odds

1st AB

4.0%

Through AB2

8.0%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park-8%
Temp+5%
vs SP+15%
Contact+3%
SP Contact+7%
Statcast+5%
SP Statcast+1%

🎯 Early-AB cuesvs Aaron Nola (RHP)

·88F game

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0318 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)+15% (×1.15) · blended_proj

Park-8% (×0.92)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp+5% (×1.05)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)+3% (×1.03)

Statcast (barrel/EV)+5% (×1.05)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)+7% (×1.07)

SP Statcast allowed+1% (×1.01)

Discipline+0% (×1.00)

HR Odds History

Price range · 18 games · 3 HR

Now

+500

High

+8030

Low

+400

Med

+550

Avg

+1837

🐾🐾🐾+500

Low +400🐾 HR money zoneHigh +8030

🐾 PRIME SPOTspot score 100

Tonight's price is in his money zone — he's gone yard 3× priced here.

HR Winners — odds that cashed

🐾+80302026-06-14vs ATLbook line

HomeBat 6thoff RHPSinker

🐾+4952026-06-07vs SDfair odds

AwayBat 6thoff RHPSlider

🐾+6402026-06-06vs SDbook line

AwayBat 5thoff RHPSinker

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-07-16 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

6.0

Proj PA

176

HR / PA

.034

ISO

.169

wOBA

.317

wRC+

102

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Away2026-07-16 · FG

Season

HR/FB

9.4

Hard%

30.5

FB%

42.9

Pull%

50.4

Soft%

15.0

GB%

33.5

vs LHP

HR/FB

4.0

Hard%

33.3

FB%

43.9

Pull%

42.1

Soft%

12.3

GB%

26.3

🐾vs RHP

HR/FB

11.3

Hard%

29.6

FB%

42.5

Pull%

53.3

Soft%

16.0

GB%

35.9

Home

HR/FB

8.3

Hard%

33.3

FB%

43.2

Pull%

50.4

Soft%

12.6

GB%

30.6

🐾Away

HR/FB

10.4

Hard%

27.8

FB%

42.5

Pull%

50.4

Soft%

17.4

GB%

36.3

🐾 = split that matches tonight (vs RHP, Away). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

4.0 🐾

STRONG PLAY

Citizens Bank Park suppresses HRs (92)
Crushes 1/3 of SP's top pitches (SI)
Historical sweet spot in the order: #1 (73% of career HRs)
89°F — ball flies in warm air
19 mph wind — check direction relative to spray
Park drag (92)
High barrels/PA (6.1%)
Pitcher HR-prone (1.67 HR/9)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.204↓ vs season .26055 PA · 15d

OPS

.679

ISO

.184

RBI

K-BB

14-6

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	HR	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-17	@ CIN	4	2	0	1	1	0	.500
06-16	@ CIN	3	1	0	0	1	1	.333
06-15	@ CIN	3	0	0	0	1	1	—
06-14	vs ATL	5	1	1	1	0	2	.800
💣 403ft · 101.1 EV · Sinker
06-13	vs ATL	3	0	0	0	1	1	—
06-12	vs ATL	3	1	0	0	1	2	.333
06-11	vs STL	4	1	0	0	0	2	.250
06-10	vs STL	4	0	0	0	0	2	—

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB. Metrics are this hitter's vs RHP split.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾CUCurveballvR9PA	—	.232	0.0	16.7	100	33.3
🐾FF4-Seam FastballvR57PA	.260	.379	18.6	60.5	63	18.3
🐾SISinkervR56PA	.265	.392	11.6	39.5	72	11.0
🐾CHChangeupvR12PA	—	.269	0.0	—	83	33.3

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

CUCurveball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHPTONIGHT	—	.232	0.0	16.7	100	33.3	71	9

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	—	.327	5.3	36.8	53	9.1	102	29
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHESTONIGHT	.260	.379	18.6	60.5	63	18.3	71	57

SISinker

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES	.250	.475	10.0	50.0	50	12.5	102	14
vs RHPTONIGHT	.265	.392	11.6	39.5	72	11.0	71	56

CHChangeup

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES	.286	.650	28.6	57.1	57	26.7	102	9
vs RHPTONIGHT	—	.269	0.0	0.0	83	33.3	71	12

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

vs LHB

131

🐾vs RHB

vs SHB

111

Citizens Bank Park. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Semien.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Tonight: Batting #6Projected0 of 33 HRs · 0%

🐾 Hottest from spot #1 — 24 of 33 career HRs (73%).

🐾

Hot spots:#1

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast. 🐾 jade outline = tonight's spot.

Season Statcast

ISO

.131

Barrel %

8.6

Hard Hit %

34.9

Pull % (HRs)

100

xwOBA

.325

xBA

.260

Brl / PA %

6.10

Max EV (mph)

107.5

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

106.3

Avg EV on HRs

102.9

Avg HR Distance (ft)

385

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

0/4

Crushed (105+ mph)

1/4

Avg LA on HRs

26.8°

Brl / PA %

6.10

Sampled across 4 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Aaron Nola · top 3 pitches tonightvs RHP split

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

🐾 LEAN EXPLOIT

CUCurveballvs RHP
Use%
34
xwOBA
.232
Whiff%
33.3
HH%
16.7
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
100
FF4-Seam Fastballvs RHP
Use%
25
xwOBA
.379
Whiff%
18.3
HH%
60.5
BRL%
18.6
Pull%
63
SISinkervs RHP
Use%
20
xwOBA
.392
Whiff%
11.0
HH%
39.5
BRL%
11.6
Pull%
72
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.

Career vs Aaron Nola (RHP)

🐾 Tonight's matchup

—AVG · small sample (6 PA)

OPS

—

RBI

K-BB

1-0

Aaron Nola (RHP) arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
CUCurveball⚡ PUT-AWAY	34.0	—	26.4	—	.232	21.9
FF4-Seam Fastball	24.7	18.0	50.0	56	.450	21.3
SISinker	19.9	10.4	43.5	60	.387	14.6
CHChangeup	12.0	7.1	40.0	71	.275	6.5

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball25% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	16.2	54.1	62	.504	14.9	51
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	23.1	46.2	39	.330	27.3	22

SISinker20% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	5.0	50.0	70	.401	11.3	35
vs RHB	14.3	39.3	54	.374	20.6	36

CHChangeup12% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	4.3	34.8	65	.292	8.7	28
vs RHB	20.0	60.0	100	.187	0.0	6

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 21.9% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #5 (xwOBA .423). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (PHI)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Citizens Bank Park (329/401/330 ft) · elev 39ft

4 HRs this season

vs RHP 4vs LHP 0

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

FF🐾4-Seam Fastball3

FCCutter1

Bats R · Pull side: LF

HR Drought — when he's due

HR Drought

games since last HR

PAs since last HR

Homers about every 8.0 games · 34 PA (1 HR in 8 G)

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾vs RHP222PA	.147	.353	.611	9.9%	8
vs LHP72PA	.079	.349	.696	7.8%	1

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Home144PA	.128	.323	.573	8.3%	4
🐾Away150PA	.135	.381	.690	10.5%	5

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Day139PA	.159	.381	.664	9.7%	5
Night155PA	.106	.326	.603	9.2%	4

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty100PA	.033	.200	.450	1
Runners On129PA	.129	.379	.676	3
RISP72PA	.064	.381	.742	0

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs98PA	.277	.533	.832	7
1 Out100PA	.058	.230	.490	1
2 Outs96PA	.056	.289	.570	1

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. vs RHP · Away · Day · Thu.