Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Showing tomorrow's slate. Projections and lineups will refine as the slate locks in.

Home Run

13.1%

+662

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Martín Pérez (LHP) (0.96 HR/9) · park 110

2+ RBI

11.2%

+792

RBI 1+

34.6%

+189

Hits 1+

66.0%

-194

Hits 2+

23.9%

+318

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

13.0%

95% CI · 12.6–13.4%

+669

Fair odds

1st AB

3.4%

Through AB2

6.6%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park+10%
Temp+5%
vs SP-8%
Contact-2%
Statcast+6%
SP Statcast-2%

🎯 Early-AB cuesvs Martín Pérez (LHP)

·HR-friendly park (factor 110)
·90F game

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0303 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)-8% (×0.92) · blended_proj

Park+10% (×1.10)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp+5% (×1.05)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)-2% (×0.98)

Statcast (barrel/EV)+6% (×1.06)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)+0% (×1.00)

SP Statcast allowed-2% (×0.98)

Discipline+1% (×1.01)

HR Odds History

Price range · 15 games · 3 HR

Now

+660

High

+935

Low

+425

Med

+725

Avg

+672

🐾🐾🐾+660

Low +425🐾 HR money zoneHigh +935

🐾 PRIME SPOTspot score 100

Tonight's price is in his money zone — he's gone yard 3× priced here.

Recent — tap a game

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-06-12 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

12.0

Proj PA

371

HR / PA

.032

ISO

.165

wOBA

.318

wRC+

104

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Home2026-06-12 · FG

Season

HR/FB

9.5

Hard%

30.8

FB%

43.5

Pull%

51.8

Soft%

14.9

GB%

33.7

🐾vs LHP

HR/FB

5.3

Hard%

35.6

FB%

42.2

Pull%

44.4

Soft%

13.3

GB%

28.9

vs RHP

HR/FB

10.8

Hard%

29.3

FB%

43.9

Pull%

54.0

Soft%

15.3

GB%

35.1

🐾Home

HR/FB

7.1

Hard%

33.0

FB%

43.3

Pull%

54.6

Soft%

13.4

GB%

29.9

Away

HR/FB

11.9

Hard%

28.6

FB%

43.8

Pull%

49.0

Soft%

16.3

GB%

37.5

🐾 = split that matches tonight (vs LHP, Home). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

4.0 🐾

STRONG PLAY

Citi Field mild HR boost (+10)
Crushes 3/3 of SP's top pitches (CH, SI, FC)
Historical sweet spot in the order: #1 (73% of career HRs)
Hot streak: .846 OPS over last 15 days
Already has 1 HR / 3 RBI off this SP in 37 PA
90°F — ball flies in warm air
Park boost (110)
High barrels/PA (6.3%)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.255↓ vs season .26451 PA · 15d

OPS

.846

ISO

.277

RBI

K-BB

13-4

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	HR	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-12	vs ATL	3	1	0	0	1	2	.333
06-11	vs STL	4	1	0	0	0	2	.250
06-10	vs STL	4	0	0	0	0	2	—
06-09	vs STL	3	0	0	0	0	1	—
06-07	@ SD	5	2	1	1	0	0	1.000
💣 360ft · 96.2 EV · Slider
06-06	@ SD	3	2	1	1	1	0	1.667
💣 394ft · 101.5 EV · Sinker
06-05	@ SD	4	0	0	0	0	1	—
06-03	@ SEA	5	0	0	0	0	1	—

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB. Metrics are this hitter's vs LHP split.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾CHChangeupvL9PA	.286	.650	28.6	57.1	57	26.7
🐾SISinkervL11PA	.300	.489	12.5	62.5	50	7.7
🐾FCCutter11PA	—	.398	16.7	30.0	58	23.1
🐾CUCurveball10PA	—	.366	0.0	22.2	100	18.5

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

CHChangeup

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHESTONIGHT	.286	.650	28.6	57.1	57	26.7	87	9
vs RHP	—	.225	0.0	0.0	83	31.8	71	11

SISinker

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHESTONIGHT	.300	.489	12.5	62.5	50	7.7	87	11
vs RHP	.222	.389	9.8	36.6	73	10.5	71	52

FCCutter

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHP	.300	.386	18.2	45.5	55	26.5	71	11

CUCurveball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHP	—	.265	0.0	16.7	100	31.2	71	8

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

vs LHB

🐾vs RHB

111

vs SHB

105

Citi Field. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Semien.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Hottest from spot #1 — 24 of 33 career HRs (73%).

🐾

Hot spots:#1

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast.

Season Statcast

ISO

.130

Barrel %

8.7

Hard Hit %

35.9

Pull % (HRs)

100

xwOBA

.324

xBA

.264

Brl / PA %

6.30

Max EV (mph)

107.5

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

106.3

Avg EV on HRs

102.9

Avg HR Distance (ft)

385

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

0/4

Crushed (105+ mph)

1/4

Avg LA on HRs

26.8°

Brl / PA %

6.30

Sampled across 4 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Martín Pérez · top 3 pitches tonightvs LHP split

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

🐾 ELITE EXPLOIT

CHChangeupvs LHP
Use%
33
xwOBA
.650
Whiff%
26.7
HH%
57.1
BRL%
28.6
Pull%
57
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.
SISinkervs LHP
Use%
30
xwOBA
.489
Whiff%
7.7
HH%
62.5
BRL%
12.5
Pull%
50
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.
FCCutter
Use%
22
xwOBA
.398
Whiff%
23.1
HH%
30.0
BRL%
16.7
Pull%
58
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.

Career vs Martín Pérez (LHP)

🐾 Tonight's matchup

.270AVG · meaningful (37 PA)

OPS

.729

RBI

K-BB

8-0

Martín Pérez (LHP) arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
CHChangeup	32.8	8.3	23.6	83	.270	18.3
SISinker	29.5	8.9	49.0	75	.403	11.6
FCCutter⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	21.5	7.7	45.7	49	.302	30.0
CUCurveball	9.7	0.0	50.0	80	.325	—

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

CHChangeup33% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	14.3	28.6	86	.161	21.3	19
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	7.5	22.6	83	.302	15.3	70

SISinker30% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	10.0	36.7	77	.437	6.5	36
vs RHB	7.7	57.7	73	.370	14.0	39

FCCutter⚡ PUT-AWAY22% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	0.0	0.0	25	.128	21.4	7
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	8.6	51.4	51	.329	33.3	51

CUCurveball10% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	0.0	60.0	80	.238	0.0	5
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	0.0	40.0	80	.412	—	5

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 30.0% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #5 (xwOBA .423). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (NYM)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Citi Field (335/408/330 ft) · elev 33ft

4 HRs this season

vs RHP 4vs LHP 0

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

FF🐾4-Seam Fastball3

FCCutter1

Bats R · Pull side: LF

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
vs RHP208PA	.140	.354	.615	9.9%	7
🐾vs LHP64PA	.087	.333	.646	8.7%	1

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Home135PA	.112	.312	.564	7.8%	3
Away137PA	.145	.387	.681	11.3%	5

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Day125PA	.149	.368	.642	9.6%	4
Night147PA	.111	.333	.605	9.6%	4

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty93PA	—	.155	.392	0
Runners On118PA	.141	.396	.695	3
RISP65PA	.070	.386	.740	0

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs91PA	.259	.518	.807	6
1 Out91PA	.062	.225	.467	1
2 Outs90PA	.060	.298	.587	1

Count

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0-045PA	.272	.636	.992	3
1-018PA	.111	.333	.556	0
0-138PA	.139	.472	.788	1
2-08PA	—	.125	.250	0
0-225PA	.125	.250	.370	1
1-236PA	—	.139	.278	0
2-235PA	.088	.176	.262	1
3-235PA	.280	.520	.977	2

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. vs LHP · Home · Day · Sat.