Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

9.2%

+983

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Sonny Gray (0.87 HR/9) · park 85

Batting #1Confirmed lineup

2+ RBI

9.1%

+1002

RBI 1+

32.6%

+207

Hits 1+

59.0%

-144

Hits 2+

17.2%

+482

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

14.4%

95% CI · 14.0–14.8%

+596

Fair odds

1st AB

3.5%

Through AB2

7.1%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park-15%
Wind+14%
vs SP-10%
Lineup+3%
Contact+14%
SP Contact-11%
Statcast+3%
SP Statcast-2%

🎯 Early-AB cues

·19 mph wind out to OF
·Big bats hitting behind
·Elite batted-ball profile (away) — Pull/Hard/FB/HR-FB above league

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0388 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)-10% (×0.90) · blended_proj

Park-15% (×0.85)

Wind+14% (×1.14)

Temp0% (×1.00)

Lineup+3% (×1.03)

Contact (batted-ball)+14% (×1.14)

Statcast (barrel/EV)+3% (×1.03)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)-11% (×0.89)

SP Statcast allowed-2% (×0.98)

Discipline+0% (×1.00)

HR Odds History

Price range · 18 games

Now

+760

High

+1300

Low

+370

Med

+695

Avg

+706

+760

Low +370High +1300

BUILDING HISTORY

No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.

HR Winners — odds that cashed

No priced HR games in the tracked window yet.

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-07-16 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

9.9

Proj PA

206

HR / PA

.048

ISO

.217

wOBA

.357

wRC+

130

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Away2026-07-16 · FG

Season

HR/FB

11.3

Hard%

38.2

FB%

40.2

Pull%

44.2

Soft%

14.6

GB%

44.2

vs LHP

HR/FB

7.7

Hard%

35.3

FB%

51.0

Pull%

39.2

Soft%

15.7

GB%

29.4

vs RHP

HR/FB

13.0

Hard%

39.2

FB%

36.5

Pull%

45.9

Soft%

14.2

GB%

49.3

Home

HR/FB

8.5

Hard%

30.6

FB%

43.5

Pull%

37.0

Soft%

18.5

GB%

42.6

🐾Away

HR/FB

15.2

Hard%

47.3

FB%

36.3

Pull%

52.7

Soft%

9.9

GB%

46.2

🐾 = split that matches tonight (Away). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

2.0 🐾

DART THROW

Fenway Park suppresses HRs (85)
Sonny Gray stingy: only 0.87 HR/9
Crushes 1/3 of SP's top pitches (FC)
Historical sweet spot in the order: #1 (63% of career HRs)
Hot streak: .847 OPS over last 15 days
Already has 1 HR / 2 RBI off this SP in 25 PA
84°F — ball flies in warm air
20 mph wind — check direction relative to spray
Park drag (85)
High barrels/PA (5.7%)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.237↑ vs season .22451 PA · 15d

OPS

.847

ISO

.210

RBI

K-BB

6-10

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	HR	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-17	@ BOS	3	0	0	0	0	1	—
06-16	@ BOS	3	2	1	3	1	0	1.667
💣 438ft · 109.2 EV · Cutter
06-14	vs NYY	5	2	0	0	0	0	.400
06-13	vs NYY	4	0	0	0	1	1	—
06-12	vs NYY	2	1	1	2	3	0	2.000
💣 385ft · 100.5 EV · Changeup
06-10	vs PHI	3	1	0	0	2	1	.333
06-08	vs PHI	4	0	0	0	0	3	—
06-07	vs BAL	4	0	0	0	0	0	—

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾FF4-Seam Fastball63PA	.240	.350	12.5	45.2	58	24.2
🐾FCCutter13PA	.461	.580	25.0	41.7	75	11.5
🐾STSweeper29PA	.042	.246	10.5	16.7	68	26.0
🐾CUCurveball	—	—	—	—	—	—

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES	.294	.397	12.5	43.8	50	17.6	128	25
vs RHP	.293	.311	12.5	50.0	63	19.6	77	46

FCCutter

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHP	.600	.576	28.6	50.0	79	10.7	77	15

STSweeper

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	.334	.263	20.0	40.0	60	26.3	128	11
vs RHP	.058	.240	7.1	14.3	71	22.9	77	20

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

vs LHB

102

🐾vs RHB

vs SHB

Fenway Park. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Springer.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Tonight: Batting #1Confirmed32 of 51 HRs · 63%

🐾 Hottest from spot #1 — 32 of 51 career HRs (63%).

🐾

Hot spots:#1

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast. 🐾 jade outline = tonight's spot.

Season Statcast

ISO

.157

Barrel %

8.3

Hard Hit %

36.9

Pull % (HRs)

xwOBA

.312

xBA

.224

Brl / PA %

5.70

Max EV (mph)

109.2

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

107.0

Avg EV on HRs

102.6

Avg HR Distance (ft)

404

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

0/6

Crushed (105+ mph)

3/6

Avg LA on HRs

30.2°

Brl / PA %

5.70

Sampled across 6 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Sonny Gray · top 3 pitches tonight

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

🐾 ELITE EXPLOIT

FF4-Seam Fastball
Use%
21
xwOBA
.350
Whiff%
24.2
HH%
45.2
BRL%
12.5
Pull%
58
FCCutter
Use%
21
xwOBA
.580
Whiff%
11.5
HH%
41.7
BRL%
25.0
Pull%
75
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.
STSweeper
Use%
18
xwOBA
.246
Whiff%
26.0
HH%
16.7
BRL%
10.5
Pull%
68
⚠ Struggles against this pitch in 29 PA this season.

Career vs Sonny Gray

🐾 Tonight's matchup

.238AVG · meaningful (25 PA)

OPS

.741

RBI

K-BB

1-4

Sonny Gray arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
FF4-Seam Fastball⚡ PUT-AWAY	20.6	6.1	28.9	57	.359	23.8
FCCutter	20.6	5.8	26.1	54	.351	6.3
STSweeper	18.4	8.3	51.5	72	.257	19.8
CUCurveball	18.3	12.5	42.9	67	.389	14.3

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball⚡ PUT-AWAY21% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	7.0	30.2	58	.368	25.0	55
vs RHB	0.0	33.3	50	.300	16.7	10

FCCutter21% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	11.1	27.8	56	.384	14.3	22
vs RHB	2.9	23.5	53	.328	0.0	36

STSweeper18% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	13.3	66.7	73	.235	25.0	33
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	4.8	38.1	71	.282	17.8	36

CUCurveball18% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	9.5	42.9	62	.360	14.7	30
vs RHB	no sample

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 23.8% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #6 (xwOBA .549). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (BOS)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Fenway Park (310/390/302 ft) · elev 21ft

6 HRs this season

vs RHP 4vs LHP 2

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

FF🐾4-Seam Fastball3

FCCutter2

STSweeper1

Bats R · Pull side: LF

HR Drought — when he's due

HR Drought

games since last HR

PAs since last HR

Homers about every 4.0 games · 19 PA (2 HR in 8 G)

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
vs RHP163PA	.139	.340	.626	9.6%	5
vs LHP67PA	.203	.444	.808	10.9%	2

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Home135PA	.177	.407	.748	11.6%	4
🐾Away95PA	.130	.318	.581	7.9%	3

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Day87PA	.129	.308	.572	11.7%	2
Night143PA	.175	.408	.744	8.5%	5

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty67PA	.200	.418	.766	3
Runners On85PA	.149	.311	.561	2
RISP57PA	.102	.265	.528	0

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs101PA	.111	.322	.612	2
1 Out65PA	.134	.365	.714	1
2 Outs64PA	.250	.446	.743	4

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. Away · Day · Thu.