Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

8.1%

+1132

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Noah Cameron (LHP) (0.83 HR/9) · park 97

2+ RBI

8.5%

+1082

RBI 1+

32.1%

+212

Hits 1+

55.2%

-123

Hits 2+

14.1%

+612

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

5.8%

95% CI · 5.5–6.0%

+1628

Fair odds

1st AB

1.5%

Through AB2

2.9%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park-3%
Wind+9%
Temp+5%
vs SP-1%
Contact-4%
SP Contact-10%
Statcast-18%

🎯 Early-AB cuesvs Noah Cameron (LHP)

·15 mph wind out to OF
·92F game
·Weak Statcast contact (barrel%/EV below league)

⚠ Thin blended HR rate

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0191 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)-1% (×0.99) · blended_proj

Park-3% (×0.97)

Wind+9% (×1.09)

Temp+5% (×1.05)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)-4% (×0.96)

Statcast (barrel/EV)-18% (×0.82)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)-10% (×0.90)

SP Statcast allowed+1% (×1.01)

Discipline+0% (×1.00)

HR Odds History

Price range · 11 games

Now

+1130

High

+1240

Low

+570

Med

+975

Avg

+918

+1130

Low +570High +1240

BUILDING HISTORY

No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.

Recent — tap a game

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-06-12 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

3.5

Proj PA

166

HR / PA

.021

ISO

.107

wOBA

.273

wRC+

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Away2026-06-12 · FG

Season

HR/FB

9.1

Hard%

24.6

FB%

40.0

Pull%

35.1

Soft%

13.2

GB%

44.5

🐾vs LHP

HR/FB

8.3

Hard%

24.1

FB%

44.4

Pull%

34.5

Soft%

17.2

GB%

40.7

vs RHP

HR/FB

9.4

Hard%

24.7

FB%

38.6

Pull%

35.3

Soft%

11.8

GB%

45.8

Home

HR/FB

8.7

Hard%

22.4

FB%

41.1

Pull%

31.0

Soft%

13.8

GB%

46.4

🐾Away

HR/FB

9.5

Hard%

26.8

FB%

38.9

Pull%

39.3

Soft%

12.5

GB%

42.6

🐾 = split that matches tonight (vs LHP, Away). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

2.0 🐾

DART THROW

Noah Cameron stingy: only 0.83 HR/9
93°F — ball flies in warm air
15 mph wind — check direction relative to spray

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.156↓ vs season .20435 PA · 15d

OPS

.448

ISO

.063

RBI

K-BB

6-3

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-12	@ KC	3	0	0	1	0	—
06-10	@ LAA	2	0	0	0	1	—
06-09	@ LAA	4	0	0	0	0	—
06-07	vs ATH	3	0	0	0	1	—
06-06	vs ATH	4	2	1	0	1	.750
06-05	vs ATH	3	0	0	0	1	—
06-03	vs PIT	4	1	1	0	1	.500
06-02	vs PIT	3	1	0	1	0	.333

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB. Metrics are this hitter's vs LHP split.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾FF4-Seam FastballvL15PA	.143	.285	7.1	35.7	50	6.5
🐾CHChangeup	—	—	—	—	—	—
🐾FCCuttervL5PA	.600	.298	20.0	40.0	80	—
🐾CUCurveball	—	—	—	—	—	—

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHPTONIGHT	.143	.285	7.1	35.7	50	6.5	86	15
vs RHP	.195	.293	3.0	18.2	42	19.5	81	48

FCCutter

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHESTONIGHT	.600	.298	20.0	40.0	80	0.0	86	5
vs RHP	—	.231	0.0	16.7	33	13.6	81	8

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

vs LHB

🐾vs RHB

vs SHB

Kauffman Stadium. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Vázquez.

Season Statcast

ISO

.131

Barrel %

1.8

Hard Hit %

23.7

Pull % (HRs)

100

xwOBA

.241

xBA

.204

Brl / PA %

1.30

Max EV (mph)

107.4

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

100.8

Avg EV on HRs

98.2

Avg HR Distance (ft)

374

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

0/3

Crushed (105+ mph)

0/3

Avg LA on HRs

30.0°

Brl / PA %

1.30

Sampled across 3 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Noah Cameron · top 3 pitches tonightvs LHP split

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Tough matchup

FF4-Seam Fastballvs LHP
Use%
29
xwOBA
.285
Whiff%
6.5
HH%
35.7
BRL%
7.1
Pull%
50
CHChangeup
Use%
22
xwOBA
—
Whiff%
—
HH%
—
BRL%
—
Pull%
—
FCCuttervs LHP
Use%
19
xwOBA
.298
Whiff%
0.0
HH%
40.0
BRL%
20.0
Pull%
80

Noah Cameron (LHP) arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
FF4-Seam Fastball	29.4	12.1	53.7	52	.369	10.6
CHChangeup	21.5	4.5	24.4	64	.275	21.4
FCCutter	19.1	5.9	40.0	77	.360	19.4
CUCurveball⚡ PUT-AWAY	17.0	9.1	26.3	86	.159	28.7

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball29% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	21.4	64.3	57	.480	8.3	16
vs RHB	9.1	54.5	50	.340	10.6	56

CHChangeup22% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	0.0	0.0	67	.136	33.3	8
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	4.9	24.4	63	.290	19.4	58

FCCutter19% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	6.2	37.5	81	.281	25.0	21
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	5.7	40.0	74	.381	17.2	43

CUCurveball⚡ PUT-AWAY17% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	0.0	20.0	100	.153	25.0	8
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	11.8	23.5	82	.160	27.5	41

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 28.7% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #1 (xwOBA .363). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (KC)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Kauffman Stadium (330/410/330 ft) · elev 750ft

3 HRs this season

vs RHP 2vs LHP 1

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

FF🐾4-Seam Fastball2

FCCutter1

Bats R · Pull side: LF

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
vs RHP121PA	.111	.333	.633	1.1%	3
🐾vs LHP33PA	.188	.438	.688	6.7%	1

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Home80PA	.127	.324	.593	3.3%	2
🐾Away74PA	.130	.391	.702	1.7%	2

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Day62PA	.155	.431	.742	1.9%	2
🐾Night92PA	.110	.305	.580	3.0%	2

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty53PA	.059	.157	.289	1
Runners On65PA	.089	.375	.740	0
RISP35PA	.138	.517	.988	0

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs47PA	.310	.667	1.067	4
1 Out50PA	.045	.178	.398	0
2 Outs57PA	.056	.264	.527	0

Count

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0-022PA	.150	.400	.627	1
1-09PA	—	.333	.667	0
0-110PA	.100	.200	.300	0
2-05PA	—	.400	.800	0
0-213PA	—	.154	.308	0
3-04PA	—	—	1.000	0
1-224PA	.125	.292	.458	1
2-222PA	.182	.500	.818	0
3-221PA	.236	.412	.745	1

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. vs LHP · Away · Night · Sat.