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Ildemaro VargasSHB
ARI
🐾 Tonight2:10 PM MT · Great American Ball Park
Home Run
9.5%
+951
🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾
Big Dawg Energy
vs Rhett Lowder (RHP) (0.44 HR/9) · park 110
2+ RBI
9.2%
+983
RBI 1+
32.8%
+205
Hits 1+
68.7%
-219
Hits 2+
26.9%
+272
Switch Hitter — Batting Side
As LHB(vs RHP)TONIGHT
77wRC+
🐾As RHB(vs LHP)
158wRC+

🐾 Stronger from the RIGHT side (higher season wRC+). Tonight he hits LEFT-handed vs the RHP — his weaker side.

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo
30k iter
5.3%
95% CI · 5.1–5.6%
+1775
Fair odds
1st AB
1.3%
Through AB2
2.6%
Best window
Early
What shifted the projection
  • Park+10%
  • Temp+5%
  • vs SP-7%
  • Contact-8%
  • SP Contact-12%
  • Statcast-14%
  • SP Statcast-2%
  • Discipline+2%
🎯 Early-AB cuesvs Rhett Lowder (RHP)
  • ·HR-friendly park (factor 110)
  • ·88F game
  • ·Soft contact profile (away) — below league
  • ·Weak Statcast contact (barrel%/EV below league)
⚠ Thin blended HR rate
▸Model inputs
Base HR/PA0.0172 · blended_3sys
TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00
Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant
vs SP (HR/9)-7% (×0.93) · blended_proj
Park+10% (×1.10)
Wind0% (×1.00)
Temp+5% (×1.05)
Lineup0% (×1.00)
Contact (batted-ball)-8% (×0.92)
Statcast (barrel/EV)-14% (×0.86)
Pitch match0% (×1.00)
SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)
SP contact (batted-ball)-12% (×0.88)
SP Statcast allowed-2% (×0.98)
Discipline+2% (×1.02)
HR Odds History
Price range · 16 games
Now
+950
High
+1340
Low
+530
Med
+918
Avg
+882
+950
Low +530High +1340
BUILDING HISTORY

No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.

Recent — tap a game

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)
Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)
2026-06-13 · THE BAT X
Proj HR (RoS)
2.6
Proj PA
200
HR / PA
.013
ISO
.098
wOBA
.278
wRC+
73
2026 Contact Profile
🐾 Tonight: Away2026-06-13 · FG
Season
HR/FB
10.1
Hard%
29.8
FB%
35.4
Pull%
49.5
Soft%
18.7
GB%
42.6
vs LHP
HR/FB
17.2
Hard%
41.3
FB%
46.0
Pull%
54.0
Soft%
27.0
GB%
31.7
🐾vs RHP
HR/FB
5.0
Hard%
24.4
FB%
30.3
Pull%
47.4
Soft%
14.8
GB%
47.7
Home
HR/FB
12.5
Hard%
25.5
FB%
40.8
Pull%
53.1
Soft%
22.4
GB%
38.8
🐾Away
HR/FB
6.5
Hard%
33.0
FB%
31.0
Pull%
44.7
Soft%
14.6
GB%
46.0

🐾 = split that matches tonight (vs RHP, Away). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick
2.0 🐾
DART THROW
  • Great American Ball Park mild HR boost (+10)
  • Rhett Lowder stingy: only 0.44 HR/9
  • Crushes 1/3 of SP's top pitches (SI)
  • 89°F — ball flies in warm air
  • Park boost (110)
  • Pitcher suppresses HR (0.44 HR/9)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days
🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup
.091↓ vs season .28137 PA · 15d
OPS
.280
ISO
—
HR
0
RBI
2
K-BB
1-3
Game Log · Last 8
DateOppABHHRRBIBBKSLG
06-12@ CIN300020—
06-10@ MIA400001—
06-07vs WSH100000—
06-06vs WSH100000—
06-05vs WSH000000—
06-04vs LAD200000—
06-03vs LAD300000—
06-02vs LAD410010.250
vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB. Metrics are this hitter's vs RHP split.

PitchISOxwOBABRL%HH%Pull%Whiff%
🐾SIvR22PA.350.3195.050.0703.8
🐾SLvR19PA.111.1740.038.59228.2
🐾FFvR65PA.051.3121.837.5734.0
🐾CHvR28PA.115.2970.028.06014.9
Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP
SISinker
SplitISOxwOBABRL%HH%Pull%Whiff%wRC+PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES.334.55922.244.4566.21589
vs RHPTONIGHT.350.3195.050.0703.87722
SLSlider
SplitISOxwOBABRL%HH%Pull%Whiff%wRC+PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES.100.3040.033.35617.415810
vs RHPTONIGHT.111.1740.038.59228.27719
FF4-Seam Fastball
SplitISOxwOBABRL%HH%Pull%Whiff%wRC+PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES.150.3765.611.1619.715820
vs RHPTONIGHT.051.3121.837.5734.07765
CHChangeup
SplitISOxwOBABRL%HH%Pull%Whiff%wRC+PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES.307.3648.350.08311.815813
vs RHPTONIGHT.115.2970.028.06014.97728
Ballpark — Tonight's Venue
vs LHB
98
vs RHB
110
🐾vs SHB
104

Great American Ball Park. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Vargas.

HR by Lineup Spot
🐾 Hottest from spot #6 — 1 of 1 career HRs (100%).
1
·
2
·
3
·
4
·
5
·
1
6
🐾
7
·
8
·
9
·
Hot spots:#6

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast.

Season Statcast
ISO
.154
Barrel %
4.0
Hard Hit %
31.8
xwOBA
.309
xBA
.281
Brl / PA %
3.50
Max EV (mph)
109.0
Exit Velocity Profile
Max EV (mph)
108.9
Avg EV on HRs
101.0
Avg HR Distance (ft)
394
HRs in sample
8
No-doubters (110+ mph)
0/8
Crushed (105+ mph)
2/8
Avg LA on HRs
27.4°
Brl / PA %
3.50

Sampled across 8 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup
Rhett Lowder · top 3 pitches tonightvs RHP split
🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾
Tough matchup
  • SISinkervs RHP
    Use%
    30
    xwOBA
    .319
    Whiff%
    3.8
    HH%
    50.0
    BRL%
    5.0
    Pull%
    70
  • SLSlidervs RHP
    Use%
    25
    xwOBA
    .174
    Whiff%
    28.2
    HH%
    38.5
    BRL%
    0.0
    Pull%
    92

    ⚠ Struggles against this pitch in 19 PA this season.

  • FF4-Seam Fastballvs RHP
    Use%
    24
    xwOBA
    .312
    Whiff%
    4.0
    HH%
    37.5
    BRL%
    1.8
    Pull%
    73
Rhett Lowder (RHP) arsenal (Top 3)
PitchUse%BRL%-AHH%-APull%xwOBAPut%
SI30.29.651.158.42020.0
SL⚡ PUT-AWAY24.86.536.774.25723.1
FF23.77.434.644.38110.9
CH21.23.430.872.28916.3
Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB
SISinker30% use
SplitBRL%-AHH%-APull%xwOBAPut%PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT23.876.252.46522.733
vs RHB0.035.561.37715.838
SLSlider⚡ PUT-AWAY25% use
SplitBRL%-AHH%-APull%xwOBAPut%PA
vs LHB18.236.482.26620.014
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY0.035.070.25324.330
FF4-Seam Fastball24% use
SplitBRL%-AHH%-APull%xwOBAPut%PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT10.045.045.42517.934
vs RHB0.014.343.2144.38
CHChangeup21% use
SplitBRL%-AHH%-APull%xwOBAPut%PA
vs LHB4.028.072.29517.133
vs RHB0.050.075.25218.26

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 23.1% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap
🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal
Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

.38.45🐾.33.38.30.41.38.35.27
🐾 Hottest zone: #2 (xwOBA .446). Hover any cell for detail.
Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.
Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)
🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (CIN)
CFLFRF328ft404ft325ftSIKCSICHFFSISTFC
Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.
Overlay: Great American Ball Park (328/404/325 ft) · elev 482ft
8 HRs this season
vs RHP 3vs LHP 5
Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)
SI🐾Sinker3
KCKnuckle-Curve1
CHChangeup1
FF4-Seam Fastball1
STSweeper1
FCCutter1
Bats S · Switch hitter
Splits — Today's Matchup
Handedness
SplitISOSLGOPSBRL%HR
🐾vs RHP162PA.100.347.6391.4%2
vs LHP74PA.268.592.9349.1%5
Location
SplitISOSLGOPSBRL%HR
Home115PA.206.449.7383.6%5
🐾Away121PA.106.404.7293.9%2
Time
SplitISOSLGOPSBRL%HR
🐾Day100PA.105.389.6993.1%1
Night136PA.190.452.7584.3%6
Base State
SplitISOSLGOPSHR
Bases Empty77PA.122.419.7352
Runners On95PA.227.511.8304
RISP65PA.241.534.8783
Outs
SplitISOSLGOPSHR
0 Outs90PA.129.376.6653
1 Out74PA.197.507.8223
2 Outs72PA.138.400.7241
Count
SplitISOSLGOPSHR
0-024PA.044.261.4690
1-022PA.6191.1431.6433
0-134PA.117.382.6471
2-07PA.500.8331.2621
0-230PA.138.379.6461
3-06PA——1.0000
1-237PA—.135.2700
2-225PA.120.240.3600
3-28PA.6251.0001.3751

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. vs RHP · Away · Day · Sat.