Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

17.8%

+461

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Gage Jump (1.20 HR/9) · park 114

Batting #2Projected lineup

2+ RBI

13.8%

+624

RBI 1+

36.9%

+171

Hits 1+

65.2%

-187

Hits 2+

23.0%

+334

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

29.2%

95% CI · 28.7–29.7%

+242

Fair odds

1st AB

7.4%

Through AB2

14.3%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park+14%
vs SP-10%
Lineup+3%
Contact+27%
SP Contact-9%
Statcast+25%
SP Statcast-7%

🎯 Early-AB cues

·HR-friendly park (factor 114)
·Big bats hitting behind
·Elite batted-ball profile (away) — Pull/Hard/FB/HR-FB above league
·Elite Statcast power (barrel%/EV/bat speed above league)

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0488 · blended_3sys

TTO rampconstant

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)-10% (×0.90) · blended_proj

Park+14% (×1.14)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp0% (×1.00)

Lineup+3% (×1.03)

Contact (batted-ball)+27% (×1.27)

Statcast (barrel/EV)+25% (×1.25)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)-9% (×0.91)

SP Statcast allowed-7% (×0.93)

Discipline-0% (×1.00)

HR Odds History

Price range · 18 games · 3 HR

Now

+300

High

+640

Low

+305

Med

+398

Avg

+410

🐾🐾🐾+300

Low +305🐾 HR money zoneHigh +640

🐾 PRIME SPOTspot score 100

Tonight's price is in his money zone — he's gone yard 3× priced here.

HR Winners — odds that cashed

🐾+3352026-06-16vs ARIbook line

AwayBat 2ndoff RHP4-Seamer

🐾+4952026-06-15vs ARIbook line

AwayBat 2ndoff RHP4-Seamer

🐾+4652026-06-10vs HOUbook line

HomeBat 2ndoff RHP4-Seamer

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-07-16 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

13.6

Proj PA

232

HR / PA

.059

ISO

.267

wOBA

.383

wRC+

146

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Away2026-07-16 · FG

Season

HR/FB

19.1

Hard%

43.4

FB%

48.0

Pull%

42.9

Soft%

15.3

GB%

35.7

vs LHP

HR/FB

15.4

Hard%

39.1

FB%

56.5

Pull%

34.8

Soft%

21.7

GB%

34.8

vs RHP

HR/FB

20.6

Hard%

44.7

FB%

45.3

Pull%

45.3

Soft%

13.3

GB%

36.0

Home

HR/FB

11.1

Hard%

34.8

FB%

50.6

Pull%

38.2

Soft%

19.1

GB%

32.6

🐾Away

HR/FB

26.5

Hard%

50.5

FB%

45.8

Pull%

46.7

Soft%

12.2

GB%

38.3

🐾 = split that matches tonight (Away). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

5.0 🐾

ELITE BIG DAWG ENERGY

Sutter Health Park mild HR boost (+14)
20.9% barrel rate — top-tier loud contact
51.1% hard-hit — punisher
Crushes 1/3 of SP's top pitches (FF)
Historical sweet spot in the order: #3 (65% of career HRs)
14 mph wind — check direction relative to spray
Park boost (114)
Elite barrel% (20.9)
High barrels/PA (11.3%)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.196↓ vs season .25960 PA · 15d

OPS

.729

ISO

.216

RBI

K-BB

18-8

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	HR	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-17	@ ARI	3	1	0	0	1	0	.333
06-16	@ ARI	5	2	1	3	0	2	1.200
💣 436ft · 104.0 EV · 4-Seamer
06-15	@ ARI	3	2	1	1	0	1	1.667
💣 371ft · 100.4 EV · 4-Seamer
06-14	vs TB	5	1	0	0	0	2	.400
06-13	vs TB	5	1	0	0	0	2	.200
06-12	vs TB	3	1	0	0	2	1	.333
06-10	vs HOU	3	1	1	1	1	1	1.333
💣 404ft · 108.7 EV · 4-Seamer
06-09	vs HOU	4	1	0	0	1	1	.250

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾FF4-Seam Fastball129PA	.265	.470	22.2	57.3	53	17.2
🐾SLSlider34PA	.133	.313	33.3	50.0	67	46.4
🐾CUCurveball21PA	.105	.185	14.3	22.2	86	37.9
🐾STSweeper20PA	.589	.506	45.5	63.6	73	21.4

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	.286	.496	25.0	41.7	58	11.7	131	39
vs RHP	.244	.456	21.1	63.2	51	14.7	142	102

SLSlider

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHP	.133	.323	33.3	50.0	67	46.8	142	34

CUCurveball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	—	.115	0.0	0.0	100	36.4	131	9
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHES	.143	.305	25.0	25.0	75	41.7	142	8

STSweeper

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHP	.600	.558	50.0	60.0	70	19.2	142	18

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

vs LHB

🐾vs RHB

114

vs SHB

104

Sutter Health Park. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Trout.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Tonight: Batting #2Projected9 of 37 HRs · 24%

🐾 Hottest from spot #3 — 24 of 37 career HRs (65%).

🐾

Hot spots:#3

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast. 🐾 jade outline = tonight's spot.

Season Statcast

ISO

.238

Barrel %

20.9

Hard Hit %

51.1

Pull % (HRs)

xwOBA

.412

xBA

.259

Brl / PA %

11.30

Max EV (mph)

114.6

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

114.6

Avg EV on HRs

106.9

Avg HR Distance (ft)

407

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

3/12

Crushed (105+ mph)

7/12

Avg LA on HRs

28.1°

Brl / PA %

11.30

Sampled across 12 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Gage Jump · top 3 pitches tonight

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

🐾 ELITE EXPLOIT

FF4-Seam Fastball
Use%
50
xwOBA
.470
Whiff%
17.2
HH%
57.3
BRL%
22.2
Pull%
53
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.
SLSlider
Use%
25
xwOBA
.313
Whiff%
46.4
HH%
50.0
BRL%
33.3
Pull%
67
CUCurveball
Use%
9
xwOBA
.185
Whiff%
37.9
HH%
22.2
BRL%
14.3
Pull%
86
⚠ Struggles against this pitch in 21 PA this season.

Gage Jump arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
FF4-Seam Fastball	49.7	3.2	29.0	55	.290	18.2
SLSlider	24.7	5.0	35.0	65	.353	12.5
CUCurveball	9.0	0.0	33.3	50	.216	21.1
STSweeper⚡ PUT-AWAY	7.0	0.0	28.6	86	.212	35.7

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball50% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	0.0	0.0	0	.316	25.0	7
vs RHB	3.7	33.3	63	.285	17.5	36

SLSlider25% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	14.3	57.1	57	.503	—	8
vs RHB	0.0	23.1	69	.282	14.3	17

CUCurveball9% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	no sample
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	0.0	33.3	67	.230	21.4	8

STSweeper⚡ PUT-AWAY7% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	0.0	0.0	80	.133	42.9	8
vs RHB	no sample

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 35.7% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #8 (xwOBA .617). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (ATH)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Sutter Health Park (325/403/325 ft) · elev 27ft

12 HRs this season

vs RHP 9vs LHP 3

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

FF🐾4-Seam Fastball4

FCCutter3

STSweeper2

SISinker1

CHChangeup1

SLSlider1

Bats R · Pull side: LF

HR Drought — when he's due

HR Drought

games since last HR

PAs since last HR

Homers about every 2.7 games · 12 PA (3 HR in 8 G)

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
vs RHP253PA	.254	.488	.879	21.0%	14
vs LHP82PA	.188	.422	.824	17.4%	3

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Home160PA	.155	.364	.727	15.1%	5
🐾Away175PA	.317	.574	.997	25.0%	12

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Day114PA	.281	.517	.921	25.0%	6
🐾Night221PA	.216	.449	.838	17.6%	11

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty148PA	.228	.472	.844	7
Runners On141PA	.218	.446	.893	6
RISP81PA	.173	.385	.879	2

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs96PA	.284	.531	.896	7
1 Out141PA	.250	.491	.867	8
2 Outs98PA	.162	.368	.817	2

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. Away · Night · Thu.