Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Showing tomorrow's slate. Projections and lineups will refine as the slate locks in.

Home Run

28.0%

+257

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Griffin Jax (RHP) (1.62 HR/9) · park 127

2+ RBI

19.4%

+415

RBI 1+

42.0%

+138

Hits 1+

64.8%

-185

Hits 2+

22.7%

+341

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

32.1%

95% CI · 31.6–32.7%

+211

Fair odds

1st AB

8.3%

Through AB2

15.7%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park+27%
vs SP-16%
Contact+8%
SP Contact+13%
Statcast+25%
SP Statcast+2%
Discipline-1%

🎯 Early-AB cuesvs Griffin Jax (RHP)

·SP suppresses HRs (blended_proj)
·HR-friendly park (factor 127)
·Elite batted-ball profile (home) — Pull/Hard/FB/HR-FB above league
·SP allows hard, pulled fly balls (HR-prone contact)

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0490 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)-16% (×0.84) · blended_proj

Park+27% (×1.27)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp0% (×1.00)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)+8% (×1.08)

Statcast (barrel/EV)+25% (×1.25)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)+13% (×1.13)

SP Statcast allowed+2% (×1.02)

Discipline-1% (×0.99)

HR Odds History

Price range · 16 games · 1 HR

Now

+255

High

+820

Low

+255

Med

+400

Avg

+433

🐾+255

Low +255🐾 HR money zoneHigh +820

🐾 PRIME+ SPOTspot score 100

Even shorter than his HR range — likelier than when he's gone yard 1× priced here.

⚠ Thin sample (1 HR game) — a hint, not a lock.

Recent — tap a game

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-06-12 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

19.2

Proj PA

348

HR / PA

.055

ISO

.260

wOBA

.386

wRC+

146

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Home2026-06-12 · FG

Season

HR/FB

17.6

Hard%

45.8

FB%

51.2

Pull%

41.6

Soft%

14.5

GB%

34.3

vs LHP

HR/FB

13.6

Hard%

43.2

FB%

59.5

Pull%

32.4

Soft%

21.6

GB%

32.4

🐾vs RHP

HR/FB

19.0

Hard%

46.5

FB%

48.8

Pull%

44.2

Soft%

12.4

GB%

34.9

🐾Home

HR/FB

11.6

Hard%

35.8

FB%

53.1

Pull%

37.0

Soft%

18.5

GB%

32.1

Away

HR/FB

23.8

Hard%

55.3

FB%

49.4

Pull%

45.9

Soft%

10.6

GB%

36.5

🐾 = split that matches tonight (vs RHP, Home). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

5.0 🐾

ELITE BIG DAWG ENERGY

Angel Stadium is a hitter's haven (+27 for RHB)
21.1% barrel rate — top-tier loud contact
52.4% hard-hit — punisher
Crushes 2/3 of SP's top pitches (ST, FF)
Historical sweet spot in the order: #3 (65% of career HRs)
Park boost (127)
Elite barrel% (21.1)
High barrels/PA (11.4%)
Pitcher HR-prone (1.62 HR/9)
Pitcher high contact-quality allowed (10.0% brl)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.170↓ vs season .25760 PA · 15d

OPS

.648

ISO

.128

RBI

K-BB

17-13

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	HR	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-12	vs TB	3	1	0	0	2	1	.333
06-10	vs HOU	3	1	1	1	1	1	1.333
💣 404ft · 108.7 EV · 4-Seamer
06-09	vs HOU	4	1	0	0	1	1	.250
06-08	vs HOU	4	0	0	0	1	2	—
06-07	@ LAD	6	0	0	0	0	2	—
06-06	@ LAD	3	0	0	0	0	1	—
06-05	@ LAD	4	0	0	0	0	3	—
06-03	vs COL	3	0	0	0	2	0	—

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB. Metrics are this hitter's vs RHP split.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾STSweepervR18PA	.600	.558	50.0	60.0	70	19.2
🐾FF4-Seam FastballvR96PA	.178	.450	18.5	63.0	54	15.0
🐾CHChangeupvR11PA	.333	.364	33.3	33.3	33	40.9
🐾SISinkervR46PA	.083	.476	13.3	56.7	70	11.4

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

STSweeper

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHPTONIGHT	.600	.558	50.0	60.0	70	19.2	136	18

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	.320	.492	28.6	47.6	67	12.2	133	34
vs RHPTONIGHT	.178	.450	18.5	63.0	54	15.0	136	96

CHChangeup

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	.077	.204	0.0	28.6	43	27.6	133	14
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHESTONIGHT	.333	.364	33.3	33.3	33	40.9	136	11

SISinker

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHPTONIGHT	.083	.476	13.3	56.7	70	11.4	136	46

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

vs LHB

🐾vs RHB

127

vs SHB

106

Angel Stadium. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Trout.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Hottest from spot #3 — 24 of 37 career HRs (65%).

🐾

Hot spots:#3

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast.

Season Statcast

ISO

.228

Barrel %

21.1

Hard Hit %

52.4

Pull % (HRs)

xwOBA

.415

xBA

.257

Brl / PA %

11.40

Max EV (mph)

114.6

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

114.6

Avg EV on HRs

106.9

Avg HR Distance (ft)

407

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

3/12

Crushed (105+ mph)

7/12

Avg LA on HRs

28.1°

Brl / PA %

11.40

Sampled across 12 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Griffin Jax · top 3 pitches tonightvs RHP split

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

🐾 ELITE EXPLOIT

STSweepervs RHP
Use%
25
xwOBA
.558
Whiff%
19.2
HH%
60.0
BRL%
50.0
Pull%
70
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.
FF4-Seam Fastballvs RHP
Use%
21
xwOBA
.450
Whiff%
15.0
HH%
63.0
BRL%
18.5
Pull%
54
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.
CHChangeupvs RHP
Use%
20
xwOBA
.364
Whiff%
40.9
HH%
33.3
BRL%
33.3
Pull%
33

Career vs Griffin Jax (RHP)

🐾 Tonight's matchup

—AVG · small sample (1 PA)

OPS

—

RBI

K-BB

1-0

Griffin Jax (RHP) arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
STSweeper	24.9	9.1	38.1	68	.289	22.4
FF4-Seam Fastball	20.6	23.8	47.6	52	.454	14.3
CHChangeup⚡ PUT-AWAY	20.4	3.3	33.3	53	.296	28.2
SISinker	19.6	4.2	41.7	71	.374	21.4

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

STSweeper25% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	12.5	62.5	75	.520	7.7	12
vs RHB	7.1	28.6	64	.209	27.8	26

FF4-Seam Fastball21% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	15.4	38.5	46	.402	16.7	18
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	37.5	62.5	63	.531	11.8	12

CHChangeup⚡ PUT-AWAY20% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	0.0	26.9	46	.299	27.6	36
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	25.0	75.0	100	.278	30.0	7

SISinker20% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	12.5	37.5	63	.310	37.5	13
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	0.0	43.8	75	.417	0.0	20

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 28.2% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #8 (xwOBA .617). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (LAA)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Angel Stadium (330/400/330 ft) · elev 153ft

12 HRs this season

vs RHP 9vs LHP 3

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

FF🐾4-Seam Fastball4

FCCutter3

STSweeper2

SISinker1

CHChangeup1

SLSlider1

Bats R · Pull side: LF

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾vs RHP236PA	.232	.454	.844	20.3%	12
vs LHP76PA	.204	.441	.849	20.0%	3

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Home150PA	.160	.370	.743	15.3%	5
Away162PA	.288	.528	.942	25.0%	10

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Day105PA	.296	.531	.941	25.9%	6
🐾Night207PA	.190	.411	.797	17.4%	9

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty134PA	.218	.445	.811	6
Runners On133PA	.192	.415	.866	5
RISP76PA	.107	.298	.798	1

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs91PA	.260	.494	.846	6
1 Out130PA	.274	.519	.904	8
2 Outs91PA	.099	.279	.730	1

Count

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0-015PA	.267	.667	1.067	1
1-026PA	.400	.640	.909	3
0-120PA	.473	.789	1.139	3
2-06PA	—	—	—	0
0-219PA	—	.105	.211	0
3-014PA	—	—	1.000	0
1-250PA	.167	.292	.452	2
2-235PA	.114	.257	.400	1
3-277PA	.361	.722	1.424	3

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. vs RHP · Home · Night · Sat.