Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Showing tomorrow's slate. Projections and lineups will refine as the slate locks in.

Home Run

18.5%

+442

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Ryan Gusto (RHP) (1.20 HR/9) · park 131

2+ RBI

14.1%

+607

RBI 1+

37.2%

+169

Hits 1+

69.6%

-229

Hits 2+

28.0%

+257

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

34.2%

95% CI · 33.7–34.8%

+192

Fair odds

1st AB

9.5%

Through AB2

18.7%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park+31%
Contact+18%
Statcast+25%
SP Statcast+3%

🎯 Early-AB cuesvs Ryan Gusto (RHP)

·HR-friendly park (factor 131)
·Elite batted-ball profile (home) — Pull/Hard/FB/HR-FB above league
·Elite Statcast power (barrel%/EV/bat speed above league)

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0453 · blended_3sys

TTO rampconstant

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)+0% (×1.00) · blended_proj

Park+31% (×1.31)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp0% (×1.00)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)+18% (×1.18)

Statcast (barrel/EV)+25% (×1.25)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)0% (×1.00)

SP Statcast allowed+3% (×1.03)

Discipline+1% (×1.01)

HR Odds History

Price range · 14 games · 1 HR

Now

+760

High

+5485

Low

+355

Med

+518

Avg

+856

🐾+760

Low +355🐾 HR money zoneHigh +5485

WARMspot score 80

Just below his HR money zone (+505 to +505). Close, not prime.

⚠ Thin sample (1 HR game) — a hint, not a lock.

HR Winners — odds that cashed

🐾+5052026-06-02vs SDbook line

HomeBat 3rdoff RHPSweeper

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-06-14 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

18.0

Proj PA

393

HR / PA

.046

ISO

.227

wOBA

.386

wRC+

146

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Home2026-06-14 · FG

Season

HR/FB

21.4

Hard%

42.4

FB%

36.6

Pull%

39.8

Soft%

11.5

GB%

43.5

vs LHP

HR/FB

10.7

Hard%

44.3

FB%

40.0

Pull%

40.0

Soft%

14.3

GB%

41.4

🐾vs RHP

HR/FB

28.6

Hard%

41.3

FB%

34.7

Pull%

39.7

Soft%

9.9

GB%

44.6

🐾Home

HR/FB

17.1

Hard%

40.8

FB%

39.8

Pull%

35.9

Soft%

7.8

GB%

43.7

Away

HR/FB

27.6

Hard%

44.3

FB%

33.0

Pull%

44.3

Soft%

15.9

GB%

43.2

🐾 = split that matches tonight (vs RHP, Home). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

5.0 🐾

ELITE BIG DAWG ENERGY

Citizens Bank Park is a hitter's haven (+31 for LHB)
13.1% barrel rate — top-tier loud contact
Crushes 1/1 of SP's top pitches (FF)
Historical sweet spot in the order: #3 (93% of career HRs)
Park boost (131)
Elite barrel% (13.1)
High barrels/PA (8.6%)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.243↓ vs season .28749 PA · 15d

OPS

.867

ISO

.216

RBI

K-BB

10-11

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	HR	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-13	@ MIL	3	0	0	1	1	2	—
06-12	@ MIL	3	0	0	0	0	1	—
06-10	@ TOR	4	2	1	1	1	0	1.500
💣 339ft · 99.8 EV · 4-Seamer
06-09	@ TOR	2	1	0	0	2	1	.500
06-08	@ TOR	3	0	0	0	1	1	—
06-07	vs CHW	4	2	0	1	1	0	.750
06-06	vs CHW	4	0	0	0	0	2	—
06-05	vs CHW	3	2	0	0	1	0	.667

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB. Metrics are this hitter's vs RHP split.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾FF4-Seam FastballvR43PA	.530	.573	18.5	51.9	70	13.0

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	.116	.329	7.1	57.1	43	28.6	92	33
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHESTONIGHT	.530	.573	18.5	51.9	70	13.0	169	43

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

🐾vs LHB

131

vs RHB

vs SHB

111

Citizens Bank Park. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Harper.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Hottest from spot #3 — 54 of 58 career HRs (93%).

🐾

Hot spots:#3

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast.

Season Statcast

ISO

.244

Barrel %

13.1

Hard Hit %

45.5

Pull % (HRs)

xwOBA

.409

xBA

.287

Brl / PA %

8.60

Max EV (mph)

113.5

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

111.5

Avg EV on HRs

105.9

Avg HR Distance (ft)

411

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

2/12

Crushed (105+ mph)

7/12

Avg LA on HRs

27.8°

Brl / PA %

8.60

Sampled across 12 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Ryan Gusto · top 3 pitches tonightvs RHP split

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

🐾 ELITE EXPLOIT

FF4-Seamervs RHP
Use%
31
xwOBA
.573
Whiff%
13.0
HH%
51.9
BRL%
18.5
Pull%
70
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.

Ryan Gusto (RHP) arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
FF4-Seamer	31.1	20.0	60.0	0	.410	—

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seamer31% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	no sample
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	25.0	50.0	0	.453	14.3	6

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #5 (xwOBA .490). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (PHI)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Citizens Bank Park (329/401/330 ft) · elev 39ft

12 HRs this season

vs RHP 9vs LHP 3

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

FF🐾4-Seam Fastball6

STSweeper3

SLSlider1

SVSlurve1

SISinker1

Bats L · Pull side: RF

HR Drought — when he's due

HR Drought

games since last HR

PAs since last HR

Homers about every 8.0 games · 34 PA (1 HR in 8 G)

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾vs RHP179PA	.306	.593	.990	13.7%	12
vs LHP111PA	.142	.359	.683	12.3%	3

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Home146PA	.226	.492	.855	12.1%	7
Away144PA	.263	.517	.892	14.4%	8

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Day108PA	.242	.462	.786	17.3%	6
Night182PA	.245	.530	.926	10.7%	9

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty129PA	.225	.459	.800	6
Runners On113PA	.194	.441	.786	4
RISP60PA	.174	.478	.878	1

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs83PA	.391	.750	1.232	7
1 Out100PA	.197	.430	.750	4
2 Outs107PA	.185	.402	.729	4

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. vs RHP · Home · Day · Mon.