Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

19.6%

+409

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Sean Manaea (1.10 HR/9) · park 131

Batting #3Projected lineup

2+ RBI

14.8%

+576

RBI 1+

37.8%

+164

Hits 1+

69.2%

-224

Hits 2+

27.5%

+264

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

35.1%

95% CI · 34.6–35.7%

+185

Fair odds

1st AB

10.4%

Through AB2

20.2%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park+31%
Temp+5%
vs SP+11%
Contact+15%
SP Contact+5%
Statcast+25%

🎯 Early-AB cues

·HR-friendly park (factor 131)
·88F game
·Elite batted-ball profile (home) — Pull/Hard/FB/HR-FB above league
·Elite Statcast power (barrel%/EV/bat speed above league)

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0445 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)+11% (×1.11) · blended_proj

Park+31% (×1.31)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp+5% (×1.05)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)+15% (×1.15)

Statcast (barrel/EV)+25% (×1.25)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)+5% (×1.05)

SP Statcast allowed+1% (×1.01)

Discipline-0% (×1.00)

HR Odds History

Price range · 18 games

Now

+415

High

+3950

Low

+235

Med

+395

Avg

+671

+415

Low +235High +3950

BUILDING HISTORY

No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.

HR Winners — odds that cashed

No priced HR games in the tracked window yet.

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-07-16 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

13.2

Proj PA

284

HR / PA

.047

ISO

.227

wOBA

.381

wRC+

140

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Home2026-07-16 · FG

Season

HR/FB

20.6

Hard%

42.5

FB%

36.5

Pull%

40.6

Soft%

11.7

GB%

45.1

vs LHP

HR/FB

7.9

Hard%

40.8

FB%

38.8

Pull%

39.8

Soft%

13.3

GB%

43.9

vs RHP

HR/FB

28.8

Hard%

43.5

FB%

35.1

Pull%

41.1

Soft%

10.7

GB%

45.8

🐾Home

HR/FB

20.0

Hard%

41.2

FB%

38.2

Pull%

39.7

Soft%

7.6

GB%

44.3

Away

HR/FB

21.3

Hard%

43.7

FB%

34.8

Pull%

41.5

Soft%

15.6

GB%

45.9

🐾 = split that matches tonight (Home). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

5.0 🐾

ELITE BIG DAWG ENERGY

Citizens Bank Park is a hitter's haven (+31 for LHB)
Crushes 2/3 of SP's top pitches (FF, ST)
Historical sweet spot in the order: #3 (93% of career HRs)
89°F — ball flies in warm air
19 mph wind — check direction relative to spray
Park boost (131)
Elite barrel% (12.9)
High barrels/PA (8.5%)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.200↓ vs season .28459 PA · 15d

OPS

.667

ISO

.111

RBI

K-BB

12-12

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	HR	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-17	vs MIA	3	1	0	0	1	2	.333
06-16	vs MIA	3	0	0	0	1	0	—
06-15	vs MIA	3	0	0	1	1	0	—
06-14	@ MIL	4	0	0	0	0	1	—
06-13	@ MIL	3	0	0	1	1	2	—
06-12	@ MIL	3	0	0	0	0	1	—
06-10	@ TOR	4	2	1	1	1	0	1.500
💣 339ft · 99.8 EV · 4-Seamer
06-09	@ TOR	2	1	0	0	2	1	.500

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾FF4-Seam Fastball77PA	.350	.464	14.0	52.4	58	23.7
🐾STSweeper26PA	.440	.410	20.0	50.0	75	34.5
🐾SISinker44PA	.135	.350	2.9	36.4	54	14.3

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	.116	.329	7.1	57.1	43	28.6	80	33
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHES	.500	.560	17.2	48.3	66	12.2	162	46

STSweeper

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	.154	.262	9.1	45.5	73	38.2	80	14
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHES	.750	.584	33.3	55.6	78	30.4	162	12

SISinker

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	.105	.327	0.0	31.6	58	10.5	80	21
vs RHP	.150	.367	6.2	50.0	50	18.2	162	25

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

🐾vs LHB

131

vs RHB

vs SHB

111

Citizens Bank Park. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Harper.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Tonight: Batting #3Projected54 of 58 HRs · 93%

🐾 Hottest from spot #3 — 54 of 58 career HRs (93%).

🐾

Hot spots:#3

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast. 🐾 jade outline = tonight's spot.

Season Statcast

ISO

.231

Barrel %

12.9

Hard Hit %

44.6

Pull % (HRs)

xwOBA

.405

xBA

.284

Brl / PA %

8.50

Max EV (mph)

113.5

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

111.5

Avg EV on HRs

105.9

Avg HR Distance (ft)

411

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

2/12

Crushed (105+ mph)

7/12

Avg LA on HRs

27.8°

Brl / PA %

8.50

Sampled across 12 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Sean Manaea · top 3 pitches tonight

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

🐾 ELITE EXPLOIT

FF4-Seam Fastball
Use%
37
xwOBA
.464
Whiff%
23.7
HH%
52.4
BRL%
14.0
Pull%
58
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.
STSweeper
Use%
32
xwOBA
.410
Whiff%
34.5
HH%
50.0
BRL%
20.0
Pull%
75
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.
SISinker
Use%
19
xwOBA
.350
Whiff%
14.3
HH%
36.4
BRL%
2.9
Pull%
54

Career vs Sean Manaea

🐾 Tonight's matchup

—AVG · small sample (2 PA)

OPS

—

RBI

K-BB

0-0

Sean Manaea arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
FF4-Seam Fastball	37.2	11.5	51.0	40	.330	18.8
STSweeper	32.2	9.5	28.9	86	.279	20.2
SISinker⚡ PUT-AWAY	18.7	2.5	32.5	55	.326	28.6

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball37% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	8.3	50.0	50	.376	23.1	20
vs RHB	12.5	52.5	38	.316	18.0	64

STSweeper32% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	15.4	38.5	85	.202	26.5	27
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	6.9	24.1	86	.334	15.0	43

SISinker⚡ PUT-AWAY19% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	0.0	25.0	50	.264	27.3	23
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	5.0	40.0	60	.376	23.1	30

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 28.6% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #5 (xwOBA .490). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (PHI)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Citizens Bank Park (329/401/330 ft) · elev 39ft

12 HRs this season

vs RHP 9vs LHP 3

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

FF🐾4-Seam Fastball6

STSweeper3

SLSlider1

SVSlurve1

SISinker1

Bats L · Pull side: RF

HR Drought — when he's due

HR Drought

games since last HR

PAs since last HR

Homers about every 8.0 games · 34 PA (1 HR in 8 G)

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
vs RHP190PA	.292	.570	.965	13.8%	12
vs LHP117PA	.134	.340	.648	11.5%	3

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Home159PA	.210	.466	.824	12.2%	7
Away148PA	.254	.500	.865	14.0%	8

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Day116PA	.225	.439	.758	16.5%	6
Night191PA	.236	.510	.897	10.9%	9

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty136PA	.214	.436	.767	6
Runners On121PA	.184	.429	.776	4
RISP64PA	.170	.489	.911	1

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs85PA	.379	.727	1.198	7
1 Out109PA	.185	.413	.734	4
2 Outs113PA	.175	.381	.700	4

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. Home · Day · Thu.