Showing tomorrow's slate. Projections and lineups will refine as the slate locks in.
Home Run
11.8%
+746
🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾
vs TBD (1.20 HR/9) · park 91
2+ RBI
10.5%
+853
RBI 1+
33.9%
+195
Hits 1+
63.7%
-175
Hits 2+
21.5%
+365
FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo
30k iter14.0%
95% CI · 13.6–14.4%
+616
Fair odds
1st AB
3.2%
Through AB2
6.8%
Best window
Early
What shifted the projection
- Park-9%
- Temp+5%
- Contact+15%
🎯 Early-AB cues
- ·85F game
- ·Elite batted-ball profile (home) — Pull/Hard/FB/HR-FB above league
▸Model inputs
Base HR/PA0.0304 · blended_3sys
TTO rampconstant
Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant
vs SP (HR/9)0% (×1.00) · no_pitcher
Park-9% (×0.91)
Wind0% (×1.00)
Temp+5% (×1.05)
Lineup0% (×1.00)
Contact (batted-ball)+15% (×1.15)
Statcast (barrel/EV)0% (×1.00)
Pitch match0% (×1.00)
SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)
SP contact (batted-ball)0% (×1.00)
SP Statcast allowed0% (×1.00)
Discipline-0% (×1.00)
HR Odds History
Price range · 6 games
Now
+745
High
+1260
Low
+450
Med
+740
Avg
+778
+745
Low +450High +1260
BUILDING HISTORY
No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.
HR Winners — odds that cashed
No priced HR games in the tracked window yet.
🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.
▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)
Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)
2026-06-14 · THE BAT XProj HR (RoS)
0.9
Proj PA
29
HR / PA
.030
ISO
.137
wOBA
.279
wRC+
75
2026 Contact Profile
🐾 Tonight: Home2026-06-14 · FG
Season
HR/FB
18.2
Hard%
35.7
FB%
40.7
Pull%
42.9
Soft%
21.4
GB%
37.0
vs LHP
HR/FB
25.0
Hard%
23.5
FB%
47.1
Pull%
35.3
Soft%
35.3
GB%
41.2
vs RHP
HR/FB
0.0
Hard%
54.5
FB%
30.0
Pull%
54.5
Soft%
0.0
GB%
30.0
🐾Home
HR/FB
20.0
Hard%
27.3
FB%
45.5
Pull%
45.5
Soft%
27.3
GB%
45.5
Away
HR/FB
16.7
Hard%
41.2
FB%
37.5
Pull%
41.2
Soft%
17.6
GB%
31.3
🐾 = split that matches tonight (Home). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).
Why this pick
3.0 🐾LEAN
- Globe Life Field suppresses HRs (91)
- Historical sweet spot in the order: #4 (60% of career HRs)
- 85°F — ball flies in warm air
- Park drag (91)
- High barrels/PA (6.2%)
Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.
Last 15 Days
🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup
.385↑ vs season .25013 PA · 15d
OPS
.847
ISO
.077
HR
0
RBI
2
K-BB
2-0
Game Log · Last 8
| Date | Opp | AB | H | HR | RBI | BB | K | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-13 | @ BOS | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .333 |
| 06-12 | @ BOS | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 06-11 | @ KC | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | .500 |
| 06-10 | @ KC | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2.000 |
| 06-07 | vs CLE | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | .250 |
| 05-20 | vs BOS | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1.333 |
| 💣 405ft · 102.5 EV · Sinker | ||||||||
| 05-16 | @ STL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 05-13 | @ CHW | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4
| Pitch | ISO | xwOBA | BRL% | HH% | Pull% | Whiff% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CH10PA | .300 | .166 | 11.1 | 33.3 | 22 | 33.3 |
Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP
CHChangeup
| Split | ISO | xwOBA | BRL% | HH% | Pull% | Whiff% | wRC+ | PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs LHP | .333 | .139 | 12.5 | 25.0 | 13 | 31.2 | — | 9 |
| vs RHP | no sample | |||||||
Ballpark — Tonight's Venue
vs LHB
94
🐾vs RHB
91
vs SHB
92
Globe Life Field. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Díaz.
HR by Lineup Spot
🐾 Hottest from spot #4 — 3 of 5 career HRs (60%).
1
·
2
·
3
·
3
4
🐾
5
·
1
6
·
7
·
8
·
1
9
·
Hot spots:#4
Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast.
Season Statcast
Barrel %
7.5
Pull % (HRs)
0
xBA
.250
Brl / PA %
6.18
Exit Velocity Profile
Max EV (mph)
97.7
Avg EV on HRs
97.7
Avg HR Distance (ft)
373
HRs in sample
1
No-doubters (110+ mph)
0/1
Crushed (105+ mph)
0/1
Avg LA on HRs
29.0°
Brl / PA %
6.18
Sampled across 1 home run. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.
Strike Zone Heatmap
🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal
🐾 Hottest zone: #9 (xwOBA .350). Hover any cell for detail.
Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.
Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)
🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (TEX)
Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.
Overlay: Globe Life Field (329/407/326 ft) · elev 591ft
1 HRs this season
vs RHP 0vs LHP 1
Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)
CHChangeup1
Bats R · Pull side: LF
HR Drought — when he's due
HR Drought
5
games since last HR
13
PAs since last HR
Homers about every 8.0 games · 18 PA (1 HR in 8 G)
Splits — Today's Matchup
Handedness
| Split | ISO | SLG | OPS | BRL% | HR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs RHP13PA | .153 | .615 | 1.077 | — | 0 |
| vs LHP23PA | .318 | .500 | .717 | 17.6% | 2 |
Location
| Split | ISO | SLG | OPS | BRL% | HR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🐾Home18PA | .236 | .412 | .634 | 16.7% | 1 |
| Away18PA | .278 | .667 | 1.056 | 5.9% | 1 |
Time
| Split | ISO | SLG | OPS | BRL% | HR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Day18PA | .222 | .611 | 1.000 | 6.2% | 1 |
| 🐾Night18PA | .295 | .471 | .693 | 15.4% | 1 |
Base State
| Split | ISO | SLG | OPS | HR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bases Empty13PA | .307 | .692 | 1.077 | 1 |
| Runners On16PA | .333 | .600 | .913 | 1 |
| RISP8PA | .250 | .625 | 1.000 | 0 |
Outs
| Split | ISO | SLG | OPS | HR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 Outs13PA | .231 | .385 | .539 | 1 |
| 1 Out12PA | .416 | .833 | 1.250 | 1 |
| 2 Outs11PA | .100 | .400 | .764 | 0 |
🐾 = the split that matches tonight. Home · Night · Mon.