Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Showing tomorrow's slate. Projections and lineups will refine as the slate locks in.

Home Run

12.3%

+713

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs TBD (1.20 HR/9) · park 110

2+ RBI

10.8%

+829

RBI 1+

34.2%

+193

Hits 1+

57.0%

-132

Hits 2+

15.4%

+548

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

24.6%

95% CI · 24.1–25.1%

+307

Fair odds

1st AB

6.4%

Through AB2

12.7%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park+10%
Contact+14%
Statcast-3%

🎯 Early-AB cues

·HR-friendly park (factor 110)
·Elite batted-ball profile (home) — Pull/Hard/FB/HR-FB above league

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0552 · blended_3sys

TTO rampconstant

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)0% (×1.00) · no_pitcher

Park+10% (×1.10)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp0% (×1.00)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)+14% (×1.14)

Statcast (barrel/EV)-3% (×0.97)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)0% (×1.00)

SP Statcast allowed0% (×1.00)

Discipline-1% (×0.99)

HR Odds History

Price range · 12 games

Now

+535

High

+3300

Low

+340

Med

+520

Avg

+952

+535

Low +340High +3300

BUILDING HISTORY

No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.

HR Winners — odds that cashed

No priced HR games in the tracked window yet.

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-06-14 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

18.6

Proj PA

334

HR / PA

.056

ISO

.234

wOBA

.337

wRC+

109

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Home2026-06-14 · FG

Season

HR/FB

13.2

Hard%

30.1

FB%

36.9

Pull%

42.7

Soft%

20.4

GB%

39.8

vs LHP

HR/FB

16.7

Hard%

36.4

FB%

54.5

Pull%

18.2

Soft%

13.6

GB%

27.3

vs RHP

HR/FB

11.5

Hard%

28.4

FB%

32.1

Pull%

49.4

Soft%

22.2

GB%

43.2

🐾Home

HR/FB

19.0

Hard%

29.8

FB%

44.7

Pull%

36.2

Soft%

23.4

GB%

40.4

Away

HR/FB

5.9

Hard%

30.4

FB%

30.4

Pull%

48.2

Soft%

17.9

GB%

39.3

🐾 = split that matches tonight (Home). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

3.0 🐾

LEAN

Great American Ball Park mild HR boost (+10)
Historical sweet spot in the order: #4 (42% of career HRs)
Park boost (110)
High barrels/PA (4.1%)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.195↓ vs season .21344 PA · 15d

OPS

.593

ISO

.171

RBI

K-BB

14-2

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	HR	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-13	vs ARI	3	0	0	0	0	1	—
06-12	vs ARI	4	2	0	0	0	0	.500
06-10	@ SD	4	2	1	1	0	0	1.250
💣 365ft · 104.8 EV · Cutter
06-09	@ SD	5	1	0	1	0	3	.400
06-08	@ SD	4	0	0	0	0	1	—
06-06	@ STL	4	0	0	0	0	2	—
06-05	@ STL	4	1	0	1	0	2	.250
06-03	vs KC	4	0	0	0	0	1	—

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
FCCutter12PA	.750	.323	22.2	55.6	33	12.5
FF4-Seam Fastball49PA	.093	.284	10.3	25.0	52	34.8
SLSlider24PA	—	.271	0.0	25.0	100	53.3
SISinker44PA	—	.268	2.7	22.2	57	16.5

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

FCCutter

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	.500	.318	25.0	50.0	25	11.1	83	6
vs RHP	1.000	.327	20.0	60.0	40	25.0	69	6

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES	—	.338	8.3	33.3	58	24.2	83	18
vs RHP	.138	.259	11.8	23.5	47	36.1	69	35

SLSlider

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHP	—	.277	0.0	25.0	100	47.5	69	22

SISinker

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	—	.189	0.0	100.0	50	37.5	83	6
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHES	—	.279	2.9	17.1	57	13.3	69	40

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

vs LHB

🐾vs RHB

110

vs SHB

104

Great American Ball Park. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Suárez.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Hottest from spot #4 — 11 of 26 career HRs (42%).

🐾

Hot spots:#4#5

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast.

Season Statcast

ISO

.137

Barrel %

6.8

Hard Hit %

27.2

Pull % (HRs)

xwOBA

.278

xBA

.213

Brl / PA %

4.10

Max EV (mph)

109.6

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

109.6

Avg EV on HRs

105.0

Avg HR Distance (ft)

397

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

0/3

Crushed (105+ mph)

2/3

Avg LA on HRs

30.3°

Brl / PA %

4.10

Sampled across 3 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

🐾 Hottest zone: #3 (xwOBA .434). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (CIN)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Great American Ball Park (328/404/325 ft) · elev 482ft

3 HRs this season

vs RHP 2vs LHP 1

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

FF4-Seam Fastball1

FCCutter1

CUCurveball1

Bats R · Pull side: LF

HR Drought — when he's due

HR Drought

games since last HR

PAs since last HR

Homers about every 8.0 games · 32 PA (1 HR in 8 G)

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
vs RHP130PA	.119	.333	.618	4.8%	3
vs LHP40PA	.189	.405	.680	12.5%	2

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Home81PA	.167	.375	.659	10.2%	4
Away89PA	.109	.329	.610	3.4%	1

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Day73PA	.222	.444	.759	11.1%	4
🐾Night97PA	.077	.286	.544	3.2%	1

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty59PA	.182	.418	.706	3
Runners On81PA	.139	.333	.605	2
RISP49PA	.167	.357	.643	1

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs44PA	.049	.293	.588	0
1 Out64PA	.242	.466	.747	4
2 Outs62PA	.091	.273	.547	1

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. Home · Night · Mon.