Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

8.2%

+1123

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Sam Aldegheri (LHP) (0.53 HR/9) · park 106

Batting #4Projected lineup

2+ RBI

8.5%

+1077

RBI 1+

32.1%

+212

Hits 1+

61.9%

-163

Hits 2+

19.8%

+405

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

13.3%

95% CI · 12.9–13.7%

+651

Fair odds

1st AB

3.7%

Through AB2

7.3%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park+6%
Temp+5%
vs SP+14%
Contact+12%
SP Contact-6%
Statcast-4%
SP Statcast-5%

🎯 Early-AB cuesvs Sam Aldegheri (LHP)

·105F game
·Elite batted-ball profile (home) — Pull/Hard/FB/HR-FB above league

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0296 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)+14% (×1.14) · blended_proj

Park+6% (×1.06)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp+5% (×1.05)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)+12% (×1.12)

Statcast (barrel/EV)-4% (×0.96)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)-6% (×0.94)

SP Statcast allowed-5% (×0.95)

Discipline+0% (×1.00)

HR Odds History

Price range · 18 games

Now

+1125

High

+1220

Low

+390

Med

+720

Avg

+702

+1125

Low +390High +1220

BUILDING HISTORY

No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.

HR Winners — odds that cashed

No priced HR games in the tracked window yet.

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-06-16 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

10.5

Proj PA

336

HR / PA

.031

ISO

.153

wOBA

.313

wRC+

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Home2026-06-16 · FG

Season

HR/FB

10.5

Hard%

29.1

FB%

43.4

Pull%

45.7

Soft%

20.0

GB%

37.7

🐾vs LHP

HR/FB

11.1

Hard%

22.4

FB%

36.7

Pull%

51.0

Soft%

14.3

GB%

38.8

vs RHP

HR/FB

10.3

Hard%

31.7

FB%

46.0

Pull%

43.7

Soft%

22.2

GB%

37.3

🐾Home

HR/FB

13.5

Hard%

34.1

FB%

40.7

Pull%

50.5

Soft%

16.5

GB%

39.6

Away

HR/FB

7.7

Hard%

23.8

FB%

46.4

Pull%

40.5

Soft%

23.8

GB%

35.7

🐾 = split that matches tonight (vs LHP, Home). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

2.0 🐾

DART THROW

Chase Field mild HR boost (+6)
Sam Aldegheri stingy: only 0.53 HR/9
Crushes 2/3 of SP's top pitches (FF, FC)
Historical sweet spot in the order: #4 (65% of career HRs)
106°F — ball flies in warm air
High barrels/PA (4.3%)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.135↓ vs season .24058 PA · 15d

OPS

.361

ISO

.019

RBI

K-BB

16-4

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-16	vs LAA	4	0	0	0	1	—
06-15	vs LAA	4	1	0	0	1	.250
06-14	@ CIN	4	1	0	0	1	.250
06-13	@ CIN	4	0	0	1	2	—
06-12	@ CIN	4	0	1	0	0	—
06-11	@ MIA	4	0	0	0	3	—
06-10	@ MIA	3	1	0	1	2	.333
06-09	@ MIA	4	1	0	0	0	.250

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB. Metrics are this hitter's vs LHP split.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾FF4-Seam FastballvL20PA	.611	.622	17.6	58.8	71	7.0
🐾CHChangeupvL13PA	.077	.343	0.0	40.0	90	36.0
🐾FCCuttervL6PA	—	.303	0.0	—	33	11.1

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHESTONIGHT	.611	.622	17.6	58.8	71	7.0	89	20
vs RHP	.174	.310	10.3	33.3	64	15.1	106	53

CHChangeup

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHESTONIGHT	.077	.343	0.0	40.0	90	36.0	89	13
vs RHP	.200	.253	0.0	14.3	57	26.7	106	14

FCCutter

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHPTONIGHT	—	.303	0.0	0.0	33	11.1	89	6
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHES	.750	.539	14.3	57.1	86	37.5	106	9

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

vs LHB

🐾vs RHB

106

vs SHB

Chase Field. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Arenado.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Tonight: Batting #4Projected11 of 17 HRs · 65%

🐾 Hottest from spot #4 — 11 of 17 career HRs (65%).

🐾

Hot spots:#4

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast. 🐾 jade outline = tonight's spot.

Season Statcast

ISO

.160

Barrel %

6.3

Hard Hit %

29.9

Pull % (HRs)

100

xwOBA

.304

xBA

.240

Brl / PA %

4.30

Max EV (mph)

107.5

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

107.5

Avg EV on HRs

104.1

Avg HR Distance (ft)

401

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

0/8

Crushed (105+ mph)

2/8

Avg LA on HRs

29.5°

Brl / PA %

4.30

Sampled across 8 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Sam Aldegheri · top 3 pitches tonightvs LHP split

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

🐾 ELITE EXPLOIT

FF4-Seam Fastballvs LHP
Use%
42
xwOBA
.622
Whiff%
7.0
HH%
58.8
BRL%
17.6
Pull%
71
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.
CHChangeupvs LHP
Use%
33
xwOBA
.343
Whiff%
36.0
HH%
40.0
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
90
FCCuttervs LHP
Use%
17
xwOBA
.303
Whiff%
11.1
HH%
0.0
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
33

Sam Aldegheri (LHP) arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
FF4-Seam Fastball	41.8	4.2	29.2	50	.333	10.0
CHChangeup⚡ PUT-AWAY	33.0	6.7	40.0	67	.236	21.4
FCCutter	16.5	0.0	36.4	55	.336	12.5

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball42% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	0.0	28.6	71	.442	8.3	11
vs RHB	5.9	29.4	41	.274	11.1	20

CHChangeup⚡ PUT-AWAY33% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	no sample
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	7.7	46.2	69	.214	30.0	21

FCCutter17% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	0.0	33.3	44	.349	0.0	11
vs RHB	no sample

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 21.4% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #5 (xwOBA .415). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (ARI)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Chase Field (330/407/335 ft) · elev 1086ft

8 HRs this season

vs RHP 5vs LHP 3

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

FF🐾4-Seam Fastball5

SISinker2

FCCutter1

Bats R · Pull side: LF

HR Drought — when he's due

HR Drought

games since last HR

PAs since last HR

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
vs RHP191PA	.159	.408	.733	6.8%	6
🐾vs LHP70PA	.148	.361	.661	5.5%	2

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Home128PA	.183	.461	.813	7.7%	5
Away133PA	.130	.330	.616	4.8%	3

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Day112PA	.019	.225	.493	2.5%	0
Night149PA	.265	.531	.887	9.2%	8

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty74PA	.145	.362	.632	2
Runners On133PA	.171	.432	.793	5
RISP80PA	.250	.484	.834	4

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs84PA	.148	.405	.738	2
1 Out87PA	.200	.440	.762	4
2 Outs90PA	.124	.346	.646	2

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. vs LHP · Home · Day · Wed.