Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

17.8%

+461

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Drew Rasmussen (RHP) (1.03 HR/9) · park 120

Batting #5Confirmed lineup

2+ RBI

13.8%

+624

RBI 1+

36.9%

+171

Hits 1+

67.1%

-204

Hits 2+

25.1%

+298

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

36.1%

95% CI · 35.6–36.6%

+177

Fair odds

1st AB

9.8%

Through AB2

18.6%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park+20%
vs SP-13%
Contact+28%
SP Contact+8%
Statcast+24%
SP Statcast-3%

🎯 Early-AB cuesvs Drew Rasmussen (RHP)

·HR-friendly park (factor 120)
·Elite batted-ball profile (home) — Pull/Hard/FB/HR-FB above league
·SP allows hard, pulled fly balls (HR-prone contact)
·Elite Statcast power (barrel%/EV/bat speed above league)

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0522 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)-13% (×0.87) · blended_proj

Park+20% (×1.20)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp0% (×1.00)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)+28% (×1.28)

Statcast (barrel/EV)+24% (×1.24)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)+8% (×1.08)

SP Statcast allowed-3% (×0.97)

Discipline-0% (×1.00)

HR Odds History

Price range · 18 games · 1 HR

Now

+290

High

+855

Low

+235

Med

+410

Avg

+419

🐾+290

Low +235🐾 HR money zoneHigh +855

🐾 PRIME+ SPOTspot score 100

Even shorter than his HR range — likelier than when he's gone yard 1× priced here.

⚠ Thin sample (1 HR game) — a hint, not a lock.

HR Winners — odds that cashed

🐾+6402026-05-29vs PHIbook line

HomeBat 6thoff RHP4-Seamer

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-06-16 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

14.0

Proj PA

263

HR / PA

.053

ISO

.242

wOBA

.361

wRC+

130

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Home2026-06-16 · FG

Season

HR/FB

25.8

Hard%

44.3

FB%

39.2

Pull%

56.3

Soft%

13.3

GB%

43.0

vs LHP

HR/FB

33.3

Hard%

37.8

FB%

32.4

Pull%

62.2

Soft%

13.5

GB%

54.1

🐾vs RHP

HR/FB

24.0

Hard%

46.3

FB%

41.3

Pull%

54.5

Soft%

13.2

GB%

39.7

🐾Home

HR/FB

30.0

Hard%

48.6

FB%

42.9

Pull%

58.6

Soft%

12.9

GB%

38.6

Away

HR/FB

21.9

Hard%

40.9

FB%

36.4

Pull%

54.5

Soft%

13.6

GB%

46.6

🐾 = split that matches tonight (vs RHP, Home). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

5.0 🐾

ELITE BIG DAWG ENERGY

UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium is a hitter's haven (+20 for LHB)
Elite power: .261 ISO
16.5% barrel rate — top-tier loud contact
Crushes 3/3 of SP's top pitches (FC, FF, SI)
Historical sweet spot in the order: #5 (46% of career HRs)
Park boost (120)
Elite barrel% (16.5)
High barrels/PA (10.2%)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.298↑ vs season .27156 PA · 15d

OPS

.900

ISO

.191

RBI

K-BB

10-7

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	HR	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-16	vs TB	3	0	0	0	0	0	—
06-15	vs TB	3	1	0	0	1	1	.333
06-14	@ CHW	3	0	0	0	1	1	—
06-13	@ CHW	3	3	2	4	2	0	3.000
💣 409ft · 101.4 EV · Slider💣 415ft · 100.4 EV · 4-Seamer
06-12	@ CHW	3	0	0	0	0	1	—
06-11	@ PIT	3	0	0	0	1	0	—
06-10	@ PIT	3	1	0	1	1	1	.667
06-09	@ PIT	3	3	0	1	1	0	1.333

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB. Metrics are this hitter's vs RHP split.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾FCCuttervR13PA	.750	.640	30.0	50.0	50	11.1
🐾FF4-Seam FastballvR67PA	.418	.516	20.5	65.9	64	15.1
🐾SISinkervR22PA	.263	.402	20.0	60.0	53	12.1
🐾CHChangeupvR37PA	.156	.406	11.1	37.0	85	31.3

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

FCCutter

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHPTONIGHT	.750	.640	30.0	50.0	50	11.1	154	13

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	.100	.403	28.6	57.1	57	16.7	143	15
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHESTONIGHT	.418	.516	20.5	65.9	64	15.1	154	67

SISinker

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES	.300	.484	11.1	11.1	100	9.5	143	13
vs RHPTONIGHT	.263	.402	20.0	60.0	53	12.1	154	22

CHChangeup

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	—	.273	20.0	60.0	80	41.2	143	8
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHESTONIGHT	.156	.406	11.1	37.0	85	31.3	154	37

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

🐾vs LHB

120

vs RHB

119

vs SHB

119

UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Muncy.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Tonight: Batting #5Confirmed6 of 13 HRs · 46%

🐾 Hottest from spot #5 — 6 of 13 career HRs (46%).

🐾

Hot spots:#5#4

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast. 🐾 jade outline = tonight's spot.

Season Statcast

ISO

.261

Barrel %

16.5

Hard Hit %

48.1

Pull % (HRs)

xwOBA

.393

xBA

.271

Brl / PA %

10.20

Max EV (mph)

110.1

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

110.3

Avg EV on HRs

106.0

Avg HR Distance (ft)

410

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

2/13

Crushed (105+ mph)

9/13

Avg LA on HRs

30.6°

Brl / PA %

10.20

Sampled across 13 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Drew Rasmussen · top 3 pitches tonightvs RHP split

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

🐾 ELITE EXPLOIT

FCCuttervs RHP
Use%
33
xwOBA
.640
Whiff%
11.1
HH%
50.0
BRL%
30.0
Pull%
50
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.
FF4-Seam Fastballvs RHP
Use%
27
xwOBA
.516
Whiff%
15.1
HH%
65.9
BRL%
20.5
Pull%
64
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.
SISinkervs RHP
Use%
22
xwOBA
.402
Whiff%
12.1
HH%
60.0
BRL%
20.0
Pull%
53
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.

Drew Rasmussen (RHP) arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
FCCutter	33.3	6.1	26.0	65	.281	21.2
FF4-Seam Fastball⚡ PUT-AWAY	26.6	10.9	42.5	59	.322	23.4
SISinker	21.8	7.5	31.3	71	.218	23.3
CHChangeup	10.7	6.7	26.7	73	.227	17.5

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FCCutter33% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	3.6	23.2	75	.288	19.5	75
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	11.5	26.9	42	.264	23.4	38

FF4-Seam Fastball⚡ PUT-AWAY27% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	11.1	41.7	58	.349	22.4	54
vs RHB	10.0	50.0	60	.246	22.5	21

SISinker22% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	18.2	63.6	40	.192	25.0	21
vs RHB	4.8	28.6	79	.230	22.0	55

CHChangeup11% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	7.1	28.6	79	.249	17.4	22
vs RHB	no sample

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 23.4% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #4 (xwOBA .473). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (LAD)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Dodger Stadium (330/395/330 ft) · elev 512ft

13 HRs this season

vs RHP 10vs LHP 3

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

FF🐾4-Seam Fastball4

FCCutter3

SISinker2

SLSlider2

SVSlurve1

CHChangeup1

Bats L · Pull side: RF

HR Drought — when he's due

HR Drought

games since last HR

PAs since last HR

Homers about every 4.0 games · 17 PA (2 HR in 8 G)

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾vs RHP196PA	.262	.536	.914	16.9%	12
vs LHP59PA	.255	.510	.866	18.4%	4

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Home106PA	.302	.542	.853	21.5%	9
Away149PA	.227	.520	.936	13.5%	7

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Day68PA	.293	.586	.983	18.4%	5
🐾Night187PA	.248	.509	.873	16.8%	11

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty79PA	.391	.681	1.061	8
Runners On118PA	.166	.406	.787	4
RISP66PA	.115	.346	.740	1

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs85PA	.240	.547	.935	5
1 Out82PA	.353	.691	1.142	7
2 Outs88PA	.197	.368	.652	4

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. vs RHP · Home · Night · Tue.