Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Showing tomorrow's slate. Projections and lineups will refine as the slate locks in.

Home Run

14.1%

+608

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Noah Cameron (LHP) (0.83 HR/9) · park 97

2+ RBI

11.8%

+750

RBI 1+

35.1%

+185

Hits 1+

61.8%

-162

Hits 2+

19.6%

+409

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

23.7%

95% CI · 23.2–24.2%

+322

Fair odds

1st AB

6.6%

Through AB2

12.7%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park-3%
Wind+3%
Temp+5%
vs SP-1%
Contact+18%
SP Contact-10%
Statcast+18%

🎯 Early-AB cuesvs Noah Cameron (LHP)

·10 mph wind out to OF
·94F game
·Elite batted-ball profile (away) — Pull/Hard/FB/HR-FB above league
·Elite Statcast power (barrel%/EV/bat speed above league)

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0492 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)-1% (×0.99) · blended_proj

Park-3% (×0.97)

Wind+3% (×1.03)

Temp+5% (×1.05)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)+18% (×1.18)

Statcast (barrel/EV)+18% (×1.18)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)-10% (×0.90)

SP Statcast allowed+1% (×1.01)

Discipline-0% (×1.00)

HR Odds History

Price range · 13 games · 1 HR

Now

+610

High

+900

Low

+320

Med

+480

Avg

+528

🐾+610

Low +320🐾 HR money zoneHigh +900

🐾 PRIME SPOTspot score 100

Tonight's price is in his money zone — he's gone yard 1× priced here.

⚠ Thin sample (1 HR game) — a hint, not a lock.

Recent — tap a game

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-06-12 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

20.9

Proj PA

390

HR / PA

.054

ISO

.227

wOBA

.341

wRC+

117

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Away2026-06-12 · FG

Season

HR/FB

18.4

Hard%

37.1

FB%

44.2

Pull%

43.7

Soft%

15.2

GB%

43.7

🐾vs LHP

HR/FB

13.6

Hard%

34.1

FB%

53.7

Pull%

48.8

Soft%

22.0

GB%

41.5

vs RHP

HR/FB

20.0

Hard%

37.8

FB%

41.7

Pull%

42.3

Soft%

13.5

GB%

44.2

Home

HR/FB

20.6

Hard%

43.2

FB%

38.6

Pull%

44.3

Soft%

11.4

GB%

51.1

🐾Away

HR/FB

17.0

Hard%

32.1

FB%

48.6

Pull%

43.1

Soft%

18.3

GB%

37.6

🐾 = split that matches tonight (vs LHP, Away). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

4.0 🐾

STRONG PLAY

Noah Cameron stingy: only 0.83 HR/9
Historical sweet spot in the order: #4 (80% of career HRs)
95°F — ball flies in warm air
High barrels/PA (8.1%)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.222↓ vs season .23957 PA · 15d

OPS

.689

ISO

.204

RBI

K-BB

18-2

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	HR	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-12	@ KC	5	1	1	1	0	2	.800
06-10	@ LAA	4	1	0	0	0	1	.500
06-09	@ LAA	3	0	0	0	0	1	—
06-08	@ LAA	4	2	0	2	1	1	.750
06-07	vs ATH	4	0	0	0	0	1	—
06-06	vs ATH	4	2	0	0	0	2	.750
06-05	vs ATH	3	1	0	1	1	1	1.000
06-04	vs PIT	4	1	0	0	0	1	.250

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB. Metrics are this hitter's vs LHP split.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾FF4-Seam FastballvL21PA	.312	.232	9.1	27.3	46	23.7
🐾CHChangeupvL14PA	—	.253	9.1	45.5	46	30.8
🐾FCCutter19PA	.055	.372	5.6	41.2	61	26.1
🐾CUCurveballvL6PA	—	.149	0.0	33.3	67	54.5

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHPTONIGHT	.312	.232	9.1	27.3	46	23.7	88	21
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHES	.265	.356	10.3	56.4	39	20.1	134	62

CHChangeup

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHPTONIGHT	—	.253	9.1	45.5	46	30.8	88	14
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHES	1.000	.623	50.0	50.0	75	33.3	134	7

FCCutter

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHP	.062	.359	6.2	31.2	56	20.0	134	16

CUCurveball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHPTONIGHT	—	.149	0.0	33.3	67	54.5	88	6
vs RHP	—	.189	9.1	27.3	73	37.9	134	18

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

vs LHB

🐾vs RHB

vs SHB

Kauffman Stadium. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Walker.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Hottest from spot #4 — 28 of 35 career HRs (80%).

🐾

Hot spots:#4

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast.

Season Statcast

ISO

.245

Barrel %

11.7

Hard Hit %

44.7

Pull % (HRs)

xwOBA

.318

xBA

.239

Brl / PA %

8.10

Max EV (mph)

112.5

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

111.1

Avg EV on HRs

105.1

Avg HR Distance (ft)

395

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

1/12

Crushed (105+ mph)

8/12

Avg LA on HRs

28.0°

Brl / PA %

8.10

Sampled across 12 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Noah Cameron · top 3 pitches tonightvs LHP split

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Tough matchup

FF4-Seam Fastballvs LHP
Use%
29
xwOBA
.232
Whiff%
23.7
HH%
27.3
BRL%
9.1
Pull%
46
⚠ Struggles against this pitch in 21 PA this season.
CHChangeupvs LHP
Use%
22
xwOBA
.253
Whiff%
30.8
HH%
45.5
BRL%
9.1
Pull%
46
⚠ Struggles against this pitch in 14 PA this season.
FCCutter
Use%
19
xwOBA
.372
Whiff%
26.1
HH%
41.2
BRL%
5.6
Pull%
61

Noah Cameron (LHP) arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
FF4-Seam Fastball	29.4	12.1	53.7	52	.369	10.6
CHChangeup	21.5	4.5	24.4	64	.275	21.4
FCCutter	19.1	5.9	40.0	77	.360	19.4
CUCurveball⚡ PUT-AWAY	17.0	9.1	26.3	86	.159	28.7

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball29% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	21.4	64.3	57	.480	8.3	16
vs RHB	9.1	54.5	50	.340	10.6	56

CHChangeup22% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	0.0	0.0	67	.136	33.3	8
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	4.9	24.4	63	.290	19.4	58

FCCutter19% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	6.2	37.5	81	.281	25.0	21
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	5.7	40.0	74	.381	17.2	43

CUCurveball⚡ PUT-AWAY17% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	0.0	20.0	100	.153	25.0	8
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	11.8	23.5	82	.160	27.5	41

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 28.7% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #5 (xwOBA .498). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (KC)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Kauffman Stadium (330/410/330 ft) · elev 750ft

12 HRs this season

vs RHP 10vs LHP 2

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

SL🐾Slider5

FF🐾4-Seam Fastball5

CHChangeup1

STSweeper1

Bats R · Pull side: LF

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
vs RHP226PA	.265	.529	.852	12.1%	14
🐾vs LHP64PA	.204	.389	.686	9.8%	3

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Home142PA	.244	.480	.790	13.0%	7
🐾Away148PA	.260	.519	.843	10.5%	10

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Day117PA	.279	.558	.917	16.9%	8
🐾Night173PA	.234	.462	.751	7.7%	9

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty75PA	.174	.362	.615	4
Runners On144PA	.240	.488	.807	7
RISP84PA	.174	.427	.748	3

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs109PA	.275	.551	.890	7
1 Out85PA	.208	.429	.723	4
2 Outs96PA	.265	.506	.819	6

Count

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0-035PA	.559	.971	1.399	4
1-023PA	.305	.522	.739	2
0-128PA	.250	.607	.964	1
2-04PA	.750	1.000	1.250	1
0-216PA	.200	.400	.650	1
3-09PA	1.500	2.000	2.889	1
1-239PA	—	.077	.154	0
2-253PA	.116	.308	.515	2
3-242PA	.333	.500	.905	3

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. vs LHP · Away · Night · Sat.