Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

6.6%

+1412

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Landen Roupp (RHP) (0.49 HR/9) · park 100

Batting #9Projected lineup

2+ RBI

7.6%

+1209

RBI 1+

31.3%

+219

Hits 1+

59.2%

-145

Hits 2+

17.3%

+477

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

9.0%

95% CI · 8.6–9.3%

+1016

Fair odds

1st AB

1.8%

Through AB2

3.4%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Wind+15%
vs SP-33%
Contact-1%
SP Contact-11%
Statcast-15%
SP Statcast-7%

🎯 Early-AB cuesvs Landen Roupp (RHP)

·SP suppresses HRs (blended_proj)
·20 mph wind out to OF
·Weak Statcast contact (barrel%/EV below league)

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0325 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)-33% (×0.67) · blended_proj

Park0% (×1.00)

Wind+15% (×1.15)

Temp0% (×1.00)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)-1% (×0.99)

Statcast (barrel/EV)-15% (×0.85)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)-11% (×0.89)

SP Statcast allowed-7% (×0.93)

Discipline+0% (×1.00)

HR Odds History

Price range · 18 games

Now

+950

High

+8030

Low

+555

Med

+635

Avg

+1123

+950

Low +555High +8030

BUILDING HISTORY

No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.

HR Winners — odds that cashed

No priced HR games in the tracked window yet.

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-07-16 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

5.7

Proj PA

142

HR / PA

.040

ISO

.196

wOBA

.332

wRC+

109

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Home2026-07-16 · FG

Season

HR/FB

8.2

Hard%

40.0

FB%

43.5

Pull%

48.8

Soft%

8.8

GB%

39.3

vs LHP

HR/FB

0.0

Hard%

17.6

FB%

50.0

Pull%

41.2

Soft%

5.9

GB%

43.8

🐾vs RHP

HR/FB

9.2

Hard%

42.5

FB%

42.8

Pull%

49.7

Soft%

9.2

GB%

38.8

🐾Home

HR/FB

10.5

Hard%

38.3

FB%

48.1

Pull%

51.9

Soft%

4.9

GB%

35.4

Away

HR/FB

5.7

Hard%

41.6

FB%

39.3

Pull%

46.1

Soft%

12.4

GB%

42.7

🐾 = split that matches tonight (vs RHP, Home). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

1.0 🐾

DART THROW

Landen Roupp stingy: only 0.49 HR/9
Historical sweet spot in the order: #1 (83% of career HRs)
20 mph wind — check direction relative to spray
78% rain — delay/cancel risk
Pitcher suppresses HR (0.49 HR/9)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.121↓ vs season .22539 PA · 15d

OPS

.377

ISO

—

RBI

K-BB

11-5

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-17	vs SF	3	0	0	1	1	—
06-16	vs SF	4	1	0	0	3	.250
06-14	@ NYM	2	0	0	1	0	—
06-13	@ NYM	1	0	0	0	1	—
06-12	@ NYM	3	1	1	0	2	.333
06-10	@ CHW	4	1	0	0	1	.250
06-09	@ CHW	5	1	0	0	2	.200
06-07	vs PIT	2	0	0	1	0	—

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB. Metrics are this hitter's vs RHP split.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾SISinkervR23PA	.046	.280	0.0	44.4	61	11.9
🐾CUCurveballvR15PA	.307	.264	0.0	9.1	82	25.0
🐾CHChangeupvR25PA	.305	.274	10.5	42.1	79	18.2
🐾FCCuttervR16PA	—	.373	0.0	57.1	71	20.8

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

SISinker

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES	—	.327	0.0	50.0	50	22.2	34	6
vs RHPTONIGHT	.046	.280	0.0	44.4	61	11.9	96	23

CUCurveball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHPTONIGHT	.307	.264	0.0	9.1	82	25.0	96	15

CHChangeup

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHPTONIGHT	.305	.274	10.5	42.1	79	18.2	96	25

FCCutter

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHPTONIGHT	—	.373	0.0	57.1	71	20.8	96	16

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

🐾vs LHB

100

vs RHB

vs SHB

Truist Park. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Yastrzemski.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Tonight: Batting #9Projected0 of 23 HRs · 0%

🐾 Hottest from spot #1 — 19 of 23 career HRs (83%).

🐾

Hot spots:#1

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast. 🐾 jade outline = tonight's spot.

Season Statcast

ISO

.109

Barrel %

3.8

Hard Hit %

41.4

Pull % (HRs)

100

xwOBA

.287

xBA

.225

Brl / PA %

2.40

Max EV (mph)

106.2

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

102.8

Avg EV on HRs

98.8

Avg HR Distance (ft)

357

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

0/4

Crushed (105+ mph)

0/4

Avg LA on HRs

31.5°

Brl / PA %

2.40

Sampled across 4 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Landen Roupp · top 3 pitches tonightvs RHP split

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Tough matchup

SISinkervs RHP
Use%
37
xwOBA
.280
Whiff%
11.9
HH%
44.4
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
61
⚠ Struggles against this pitch in 23 PA this season.
CUCurveballvs RHP
Use%
28
xwOBA
.264
Whiff%
25.0
HH%
9.1
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
82
⚠ Struggles against this pitch in 15 PA this season.
CHChangeupvs RHP
Use%
19
xwOBA
.274
Whiff%
18.2
HH%
42.1
BRL%
10.5
Pull%
79
⚠ Struggles against this pitch in 25 PA this season.

Landen Roupp (RHP) arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
SISinker	36.5	7.7	36.9	58	.355	19.3
CUCurveball⚡ PUT-AWAY	27.6	2.3	16.3	80	.217	29.6
CHChangeup	19.2	0.0	26.2	71	.291	14.3
FCCutter	13.1	4.5	33.3	50	.295	21.9

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

SISinker37% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	4.8	35.7	60	.373	25.0	70
vs RHB	10.2	36.7	57	.332	11.6	57

CUCurveball⚡ PUT-AWAY28% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	5.6	33.3	100	.238	33.3	44
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	0.0	7.7	65	.202	27.7	54

CHChangeup19% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	0.0	33.3	78	.304	14.3	52
vs RHB	0.0	0.0	38	.242	12.9	13

FCCutter13% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	10.0	40.0	70	.341	29.4	16
vs RHB	0.0	33.3	33	.245	17.6	15

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 29.6% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #8 (xwOBA .442). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (ATL)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Truist Park (335/400/325 ft) · elev 1057ft

4 HRs this season

vs RHP 4vs LHP 0

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

CHChangeup1

FF4-Seam Fastball1

CUCurveball1

SLSlider1

Bats L · Pull side: RF

HR Drought — when he's due

HR Drought

games since last HR

PAs since last HR

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾vs RHP178PA	.120	.365	.691	4.8%	3
vs LHP30PA	.040	.160	.427	—	0

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Home98PA	.151	.395	.732	4.5%	2
Away110PA	.072	.286	.586	4.2%	1

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Day55PA	.087	.283	.610	2.6%	1
🐾Night153PA	.116	.355	.669	5.0%	2

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty70PA	.062	.281	.567	1
Runners On85PA	.125	.375	.740	1
RISP49PA	.091	.386	.753	0

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs70PA	.145	.387	.716	1
1 Out79PA	.129	.429	.809	2
2 Outs59PA	.039	.154	.374	0

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. vs RHP · Home · Night · Thu.