Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

9.5%

+950

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs TBD (1.20 HR/9) · park 99

2+ RBI

9.2%

+982

RBI 1+

32.8%

+205

Hits 1+

60.3%

-152

Hits 2+

18.3%

+446

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

10.4%

95% CI · 10.0–10.7%

+863

Fair odds

1st AB

2.5%

Through AB2

5.2%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park-1%
Temp+5%
Contact-13%
Statcast-15%

🎯 Early-AB cues

·90F game
·Soft contact profile (away) — below league
·Weak Statcast contact (barrel%/EV below league)

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0326 · blended_3sys

TTO rampconstant

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)0% (×1.00) · no_pitcher

Park-1% (×0.99)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp+5% (×1.05)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)-13% (×0.87)

Statcast (barrel/EV)-15% (×0.85)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)0% (×1.00)

SP Statcast allowed0% (×1.00)

Discipline+0% (×1.00)

HR Odds History

Price range · 13 games · 1 HR

Now

+950

High

+1005

Low

+425

Med

+700

Avg

+698

🐾+950

Low +425🐾 HR money zoneHigh +1005

🐾 PRIME SPOTspot score 100

Tonight's price is in his money zone — he's gone yard 1× priced here.

⚠ Thin sample (1 HR game) — a hint, not a lock.

Recent — tap a game

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-06-12 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

8.0

Proj PA

246

HR / PA

.032

ISO

.173

wOBA

.324

wRC+

105

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Away2026-06-12 · FG

Season

HR/FB

5.9

Hard%

37.0

FB%

40.5

Pull%

48.8

Soft%

7.9

GB%

41.3

vs LHP

HR/FB

0.0

Hard%

25.0

FB%

50.0

Pull%

50.0

Soft%

0.0

GB%

41.7

vs RHP

HR/FB

6.7

Hard%

38.3

FB%

39.5

Pull%

48.7

Soft%

8.7

GB%

41.2

Home

HR/FB

7.7

Hard%

36.7

FB%

44.1

Pull%

55.0

Soft%

3.3

GB%

35.6

🐾Away

HR/FB

4.0

Hard%

37.3

FB%

37.3

Pull%

43.3

Soft%

11.9

GB%

46.3

🐾 = split that matches tonight (Away). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

2.0 🐾

DART THROW

Historical sweet spot in the order: #1 (83% of career HRs)
91°F — ball flies in warm air

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.242↑ vs season .23139 PA · 15d

OPS

.662

ISO

.061

RBI

K-BB

8-5

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-12	@ NYM	3	1	1	0	2	.333
06-10	@ CHW	4	1	0	0	1	.250
06-09	@ CHW	5	1	0	0	2	.200
06-07	vs PIT	2	0	0	1	0	—
06-06	vs PIT	3	0	0	0	1	—
06-05	vs PIT	2	0	0	1	0	—
06-04	vs TOR	2	0	0	1	0	—
06-03	vs TOR	2	0	0	0	0	—

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
FCCutter14PA	—	.355	0.0	50.0	67	32.0
FF4-Seam Fastball73PA	.092	.312	3.9	44.0	63	23.0
SLSlider23PA	.238	.311	12.5	50.0	75	24.1
SISinker27PA	—	.300	0.0	42.1	60	20.0

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

FCCutter

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHP	—	.355	0.0	50.0	67	21.7	97	14

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	.125	.321	0.0	60.0	60	23.1	—	10
vs RHP	.138	.311	4.3	43.5	63	20.8	97	65

SLSlider

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	—	.143	0.0	25.0	50	14.3	—	4
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHES	.295	.346	16.7	58.3	83	22.7	97	19

SISinker

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	—	.327	0.0	50.0	50	22.2	—	6
vs RHP	.048	.293	0.0	44.4	61	12.2	97	22

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

🐾vs LHB

vs RHB

111

vs SHB

105

Citi Field. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Yastrzemski.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Hottest from spot #1 — 19 of 23 career HRs (83%).

🐾

Hot spots:#1

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast.

Season Statcast

ISO

.117

Barrel %

3.9

Hard Hit %

40.9

Pull % (HRs)

100

xwOBA

.293

xBA

.231

Brl / PA %

2.60

Max EV (mph)

106.2

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

102.8

Avg EV on HRs

98.8

Avg HR Distance (ft)

357

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

0/4

Crushed (105+ mph)

0/4

Avg LA on HRs

31.5°

Brl / PA %

2.60

Sampled across 4 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

🐾 Hottest zone: #8 (xwOBA .442). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (NYM)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Citi Field (335/408/330 ft) · elev 33ft

4 HRs this season

vs RHP 4vs LHP 0

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

CHChangeup1

FF4-Seam Fastball1

CUCurveball1

SLSlider1

Bats L · Pull side: RF

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
vs RHP172PA	.123	.370	.696	5.0%	3
vs LHP24PA	.050	.200	.492	—	0

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Home90PA	.165	.418	.762	4.7%	2
🐾Away106PA	.074	.295	.597	4.3%	1

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Day51PA	.093	.302	.635	2.8%	1
Night145PA	.122	.366	.683	5.2%	2

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty66PA	.066	.283	.571	1
Runners On80PA	.132	.397	.772	1
RISP47PA	.095	.405	.788	0

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs66PA	.153	.407	.740	1
1 Out75PA	.134	.433	.806	2
2 Outs55PA	.042	.167	.403	0

Count

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0-013PA	.384	.692	1.000	1
1-09PA	.111	.444	.778	0
0-116PA	.250	.562	.875	1
2-05PA	—	.400	.800	0
0-224PA	—	.043	.127	0
3-03PA	—	—	1.000	0
1-235PA	.213	.455	.740	1
2-232PA	.063	.219	.375	0
3-239PA	.269	.577	1.115	2

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. Away · Day · Sat.