Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

9.2%

+982

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Trey Yesavage (0.57 HR/9) · park 85

Batting #4Confirmed lineup

2+ RBI

9.1%

+1001

RBI 1+

32.6%

+207

Hits 1+

66.3%

-197

Hits 2+

24.3%

+312

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

19.6%

95% CI · 19.1–20.0%

+411

Fair odds

1st AB

4.5%

Through AB2

9.0%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park-15%
Wind+14%
vs SP-17%
Contact+22%
SP Contact-12%
Statcast+24%
SP Statcast-7%
Discipline-2%

🎯 Early-AB cues

·SP suppresses HRs (blended_proj)
·19 mph wind out to OF
·Elite batted-ball profile (home) — Pull/Hard/FB/HR-FB above league
·Elite Statcast power (barrel%/EV/bat speed above league)

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0437 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)-17% (×0.83) · blended_proj

Park-15% (×0.85)

Wind+14% (×1.14)

Temp0% (×1.00)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)+22% (×1.22)

Statcast (barrel/EV)+24% (×1.24)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)-12% (×0.88)

SP Statcast allowed-7% (×0.93)

Discipline-2% (×0.98)

HR Odds History

Price range · 18 games · 2 HR

Now

+610

High

+2495

Low

+335

Med

+628

Avg

+775

🐾🐾+610

Low +335🐾 HR money zoneHigh +2495

🐾 PRIME+ SPOTspot score 100

Even shorter than his HR range — likelier than when he's gone yard 2× priced here.

⚠ Thin sample (2 HR games) — a hint, not a lock.

HR Winners — odds that cashed

🐾+24952026-07-05vs LAAbook line

AwayBat 4thoff RHPSinker

🐾+7452026-07-04vs LAAbook line

AwayBat 4thoff LHPChangeup

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-07-16 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

14.0

Proj PA

271

HR / PA

.052

ISO

.235

wOBA

.371

wRC+

134

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Home2026-07-16 · FG

Season

HR/FB

21.1

Hard%

36.9

FB%

42.2

Pull%

54.7

Soft%

15.6

GB%

39.1

vs LHP

HR/FB

16.7

Hard%

37.3

FB%

53.7

Pull%

61.2

Soft%

19.4

GB%

29.9

vs RHP

HR/FB

23.7

Hard%

36.7

FB%

37.3

Pull%

51.9

Soft%

13.9

GB%

43.0

🐾Home

HR/FB

22.7

Hard%

38.5

FB%

40.4

Pull%

57.8

Soft%

16.5

GB%

38.5

Away

HR/FB

19.6

Hard%

35.3

FB%

44.0

Pull%

51.7

Soft%

14.7

GB%

39.7

🐾 = split that matches tonight (Home). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

2.0 🐾

DART THROW

Fenway Park suppresses HRs (85)
Trey Yesavage stingy: only 0.57 HR/9
Elite power: .257 ISO
13.9% barrel rate — top-tier loud contact
Crushes 1/3 of SP's top pitches (SL)
Historical sweet spot in the order: #3 (40% of career HRs)
Hot streak: 1.206 OPS over last 15 days
84°F — ball flies in warm air
20 mph wind — check direction relative to spray
Park drag (85)
Elite barrel% (13.9)
High barrels/PA (8.3%)
Pitcher suppresses HR (0.57 HR/9)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.348↑ vs season .26652 PA · 15d

OPS

1.206

ISO

.435

RBI

K-BB

15-3

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	HR	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-17	vs TOR	4	1	0	0	1	2	.250
06-16	vs TOR	4	0	0	0	1	4	—
06-14	vs TEX	4	3	2	2	0	1	2.250
💣 392ft · 101.5 EV · Sinker💣 337ft · 93.5 EV · Splitter
06-13	vs TEX	4	2	0	0	0	0	.750
06-12	vs TEX	4	2	1	2	0	1	1.500
💣 379ft · 104.3 EV · 4-Seamer
06-10	@ TB	3	0	0	0	0	2	—
06-09	@ TB	4	0	0	0	0	1	—
06-08	@ TB	3	0	0	0	0	1	—

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾FF4-Seam Fastball83PA	.119	.339	6.0	33.3	58	28.1
🐾FSSplit-Finger	—	—	—	—	—	—
🐾SLSlider34PA	.267	.450	21.7	47.4	78	42.7

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES	.150	.402	6.2	25.0	69	34.2	181	25
vs RHP	.100	.319	5.9	38.2	53	23.8	149	61

SLSlider

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES	.250	.709	33.3	33.3	100	33.3	181	6
vs RHP	.250	.399	20.0	45.0	75	41.0	149	35

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

vs LHB

102

🐾vs RHB

vs SHB

Fenway Park. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Contreras.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Tonight: Batting #4Confirmed10 of 30 HRs · 33%

🐾 Hottest from spot #3 — 12 of 30 career HRs (40%).

🐾

Hot spots:#3#4#2

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast. 🐾 jade outline = tonight's spot.

Season Statcast

ISO

.257

Barrel %

13.9

Hard Hit %

44.5

Pull % (HRs)

xwOBA

.383

xBA

.266

Brl / PA %

8.30

Max EV (mph)

113.2

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

111.9

Avg EV on HRs

107.4

Avg HR Distance (ft)

413

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

2/10

Crushed (105+ mph)

8/10

Avg LA on HRs

30.3°

Brl / PA %

8.30

Sampled across 10 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Trey Yesavage · top 3 pitches tonight

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

🐾 HIGH EXPLOIT

FF4-Seam Fastball
Use%
47
xwOBA
.339
Whiff%
28.1
HH%
33.3
BRL%
6.0
Pull%
58
FSSplit-Finger
Use%
32
xwOBA
—
Whiff%
—
HH%
—
BRL%
—
Pull%
—
SLSlider
Use%
21
xwOBA
.450
Whiff%
42.7
HH%
47.4
BRL%
21.7
Pull%
78
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.

Career vs Trey Yesavage

🐾 Tonight's matchup

.333AVG · small sample (3 PA)

OPS

1.000

RBI

K-BB

1-0

Trey Yesavage arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
FF4-Seam Fastball	47.0	3.2	35.5	40	.280	21.7
FSSplit-Finger	31.6	5.6	22.2	69	.274	15.2
SLSlider⚡ PUT-AWAY	21.4	7.4	44.4	82	.286	24.4

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball47% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	2.9	42.9	49	.319	30.3	54
vs RHB	3.7	25.9	30	.234	16.9	44

FSSplit-Finger32% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	6.2	21.9	69	.292	16.9	49
vs RHB	0.0	25.0	75	.183	11.8	9

SLSlider⚡ PUT-AWAY21% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	0.0	45.5	73	.262	15.4	14
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	12.5	43.8	88	.299	28.1	28

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 24.4% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #8 (xwOBA .522). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (BOS)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Fenway Park (310/390/302 ft) · elev 21ft

10 HRs this season

vs RHP 6vs LHP 4

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

SI🐾Sinker5

SLSlider2

FF4-Seam Fastball1

EP1

CHChangeup1

Bats R · Pull side: LF

HR Drought — when he's due

HR Drought

games since last HR

PAs since last HR

Homers about every 2.7 games · 12 PA (3 HR in 8 G)

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
vs RHP215PA	.238	.530	.907	11.4%	11
vs LHP73PA	.317	.617	1.042	19.2%	5

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Home148PA	.264	.584	1.003	10.4%	8
Away140PA	.250	.517	.874	17.0%	8

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Day115PA	.298	.638	1.081	18.3%	8
Night173PA	.232	.497	.850	9.8%	8

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty103PA	.259	.553	.970	6
Runners On119PA	.280	.570	.948	7
RISP72PA	.241	.534	.923	3

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs91PA	.195	.488	.851	4
1 Out105PA	.216	.455	.788	4
2 Outs92PA	.373	.733	1.211	8

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. Home · Day · Thu.