Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

9.5%

+949

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Dustin May (RHP) (0.62 HR/9) · park 92

2+ RBI

9.2%

+982

RBI 1+

32.8%

+205

Hits 1+

59.8%

-149

Hits 2+

17.8%

+461

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

14.2%

95% CI · 13.8–14.6%

+606

Fair odds

1st AB

3.1%

Through AB2

6.3%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park-8%
vs SP-21%
Contact+18%
SP Contact-12%
Statcast+7%
SP Statcast-4%

🎯 Early-AB cuesvs Dustin May (RHP)

·SP suppresses HRs (blended_proj)
·Elite batted-ball profile (away) — Pull/Hard/FB/HR-FB above league

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0424 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)-21% (×0.79) · blended_proj

Park-8% (×0.92)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp0% (×1.00)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)+18% (×1.18)

Statcast (barrel/EV)+7% (×1.07)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)-12% (×0.88)

SP Statcast allowed-4% (×0.96)

Discipline+0% (×1.00)

HR Odds History

Price range · 16 games · 2 HR

Now

+320

High

+1020

Low

+320

Med

+565

Avg

+586

🐾🐾+320

Low +320🐾 HR money zoneHigh +1020

🐾 PRIME SPOTspot score 100

Tonight's price is in his money zone — he's gone yard 2× priced here.

⚠ Thin sample (2 HR games) — a hint, not a lock.

HR Winners — odds that cashed

🐾+3202026-06-13vs BALbook line

AwayBat 3rdoff RHPCutter

🐾+7902026-05-19vs LADbook line

HomeBat 4thoff RHP4-Seamer

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-06-14 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

16.6

Proj PA

368

HR / PA

.045

ISO

.198

wOBA

.338

wRC+

118

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Away2026-06-14 · FG

Season

HR/FB

15.4

Hard%

31.9

FB%

41.1

Pull%

43.5

Soft%

17.3

GB%

43.7

vs LHP

HR/FB

14.3

Hard%

36.2

FB%

44.7

Pull%

44.7

Soft%

12.8

GB%

38.3

🐾vs RHP

HR/FB

15.8

Hard%

30.6

FB%

39.9

Pull%

43.1

Soft%

18.8

GB%

45.5

Home

HR/FB

13.3

Hard%

28.2

FB%

43.7

Pull%

39.8

Soft%

15.5

GB%

42.7

🐾Away

HR/FB

18.2

Hard%

36.4

FB%

37.9

Pull%

47.7

Soft%

19.3

GB%

44.8

🐾 = split that matches tonight (vs RHP, Away). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

2.0 🐾

DART THROW

Busch Stadium suppresses HRs (92)
Dustin May stingy: only 0.62 HR/9
Crushes 2/3 of SP's top pitches (FF, FC)
Historical sweet spot in the order: #3 (67% of career HRs)
Park drag (92)
High barrels/PA (6.1%)
Pitcher suppresses HR (0.62 HR/9)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.167↓ vs season .22855 PA · 15d

OPS

.534

ISO

.185

RBI

K-BB

10-1

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	HR	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-14	@ BAL	4	0	0	0	1	2	—
06-13	@ BAL	5	1	1	1	0	0	.800
💣 429ft · 106.2 EV · Cutter
06-12	@ BAL	4	2	0	0	0	0	1.000
06-10	vs CIN	4	1	0	1	0	0	.500
06-09	vs CIN	5	2	0	1	0	1	.600
06-08	vs CIN	4	0	0	0	0	0	—
06-07	vs NYM	4	0	0	0	0	1	—
06-06	vs NYM	4	0	0	0	0	1	—

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB. Metrics are this hitter's vs RHP split.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾FF4-Seam FastballvR74PA	.235	.383	11.4	61.4	46	25.0
🐾FCCuttervR8PA	.571	.566	14.3	57.1	71	23.8
🐾STSweepervR30PA	—	.166	0.0	23.5	65	37.3
🐾SISinkervR45PA	.179	.329	5.4	43.2	49	11.4

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	.266	.392	16.7	41.7	42	15.9	122	17
vs RHPTONIGHT	.235	.383	11.4	61.4	46	25.0	59	74

FCCutter

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	.600	.415	33.3	66.7	83	8.3	122	6
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHESTONIGHT	.571	.566	14.3	57.1	71	23.8	59	8

STSweeper

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHPTONIGHT	—	.166	0.0	23.5	65	37.3	59	30

SISinker

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	—	.290	11.1	66.7	22	28.0	122	14
vs RHPTONIGHT	.179	.329	5.4	43.2	49	11.4	59	45

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

vs LHB

🐾vs RHB

vs SHB

Busch Stadium. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Machado.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Hottest from spot #3 — 33 of 49 career HRs (67%).

🐾

Hot spots:#3

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast.

Season Statcast

ISO

.186

Barrel %

8.9

Hard Hit %

41.9

Pull % (HRs)

xwOBA

.306

xBA

.228

Brl / PA %

6.10

Max EV (mph)

109.6

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

108.0

Avg EV on HRs

102.9

Avg HR Distance (ft)

400

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

0/7

Crushed (105+ mph)

2/7

Avg LA on HRs

27.6°

Brl / PA %

6.10

Sampled across 7 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Dustin May · top 3 pitches tonightvs RHP split

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

🐾 ELITE EXPLOIT

FF4-Seam Fastballvs RHP
Use%
26
xwOBA
.383
Whiff%
25.0
HH%
61.4
BRL%
11.4
Pull%
46
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.
FCCuttervs RHP
Use%
22
xwOBA
.566
Whiff%
23.8
HH%
57.1
BRL%
14.3
Pull%
71
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.
STSweepervs RHP
Use%
20
xwOBA
.166
Whiff%
37.3
HH%
23.5
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
65
⚠ Struggles against this pitch in 30 PA this season.

Career vs Dustin May (RHP)

🐾 Tonight's matchup

.167AVG · small sample (6 PA)

OPS

.334

RBI

K-BB

0-0

Dustin May (RHP) arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
FF4-Seam Fastball	25.6	8.3	58.7	35	.306	18.8
FCCutter	22.3	3.5	35.7	72	.292	13.5
STSweeper⚡ PUT-AWAY	20.1	7.3	37.1	56	.284	25.7
SISinker	17.3	5.7	56.3	53	.317	18.8

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball26% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	10.8	64.9	41	.368	15.3	55
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	0.0	36.4	18	.152	23.3	22

FCCutter22% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	2.0	38.8	76	.293	12.1	57
vs RHB	12.5	25.0	50	.294	20.0	9

STSweeper⚡ PUT-AWAY20% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	5.6	22.2	61	.235	28.9	49
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	8.7	47.8	52	.326	14.6	31

SISinker17% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	10.0	60.0	40	.352	20.0	13
vs RHB	4.7	58.1	56	.310	15.6	54

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 25.7% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #5 (xwOBA .448). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (STL)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Busch Stadium (336/400/335 ft) · elev 466ft

7 HRs this season

vs RHP 6vs LHP 1

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

FF🐾4-Seam Fastball3

SLSlider1

CHChangeup1

SISinker1

FCCutter1

Bats R · Pull side: LF

HR Drought — when he's due

HR Drought

games since last HR

PAs since last HR

Homers about every 8.0 games · 35 PA (1 HR in 8 G)

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾vs RHP216PA	.170	.323	.565	6.7%	9
vs LHP68PA	.226	.468	.762	14.3%	3

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Home152PA	.183	.359	.622	9.1%	6
🐾Away132PA	.183	.358	.602	8.0%	6

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Day118PA	.272	.466	.731	12.2%	8
🐾Night166PA	.122	.284	.531	6.0%	4

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty86PA	.115	.256	.477	2
Runners On126PA	.241	.435	.707	8
RISP64PA	.134	.288	.538	2

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs94PA	.171	.366	.646	3
1 Out87PA	.171	.342	.583	3
2 Outs103PA	.205	.366	.609	6

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. vs RHP · Away · Night · Mon.