Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Showing tomorrow's slate. Projections and lineups will refine as the slate locks in.

Home Run

12.2%

+720

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs TBD (1.20 HR/9) · park 94

2+ RBI

10.7%

+834

RBI 1+

34.1%

+193

Hits 1+

64.2%

-179

Hits 2+

22.0%

+355

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

21.9%

95% CI · 21.4–22.4%

+357

Fair odds

1st AB

5.7%

Through AB2

11.4%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park-6%
Temp+5%
Contact+26%
Statcast+10%

🎯 Early-AB cues

·85F game
·Elite batted-ball profile (home) — Pull/Hard/FB/HR-FB above league
·Elite Statcast power (barrel%/EV/bat speed above league)

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0411 · blended_3sys

TTO rampconstant

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)0% (×1.00) · no_pitcher

Park-6% (×0.94)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp+5% (×1.05)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)+26% (×1.26)

Statcast (barrel/EV)+10% (×1.10)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)0% (×1.00)

SP Statcast allowed0% (×1.00)

Discipline-0% (×1.00)

HR Odds History

Price range · 18 games · 1 HR

Now

+720

High

+3395

Low

+435

Med

+642

Avg

+813

🐾+720

Low +435🐾 HR money zoneHigh +3395

WARMspot score 87

Just below his HR money zone (+525 to +525). Close, not prime.

⚠ Thin sample (1 HR game) — a hint, not a lock.

HR Winners — odds that cashed

🐾+5252026-05-29vs KCbook line

HomeBat 1stoff RHPSlider

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-06-14 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

10.5

Proj PA

251

HR / PA

.042

ISO

.194

wOBA

.338

wRC+

115

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Home2026-06-14 · FG

Season

HR/FB

15.1

Hard%

42.6

FB%

39.3

Pull%

39.7

Soft%

11.8

GB%

38.5

vs LHP

HR/FB

33.3

Hard%

40.0

FB%

30.0

Pull%

50.0

Soft%

10.0

GB%

40.0

vs RHP

HR/FB

14.0

Hard%

42.9

FB%

40.0

Pull%

38.9

Soft%

11.9

GB%

38.4

🐾Home

HR/FB

23.5

Hard%

48.6

FB%

47.9

Pull%

45.8

Soft%

11.1

GB%

33.8

Away

HR/FB

0.0

Hard%

35.9

FB%

29.7

Pull%

32.8

Soft%

12.5

GB%

43.8

🐾 = split that matches tonight (Home). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

3.0 🐾

LEAN

Historical sweet spot in the order: #3 (72% of career HRs)
85°F — ball flies in warm air
High barrels/PA (6.2%)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.229↓ vs season .25340 PA · 15d

OPS

.725

ISO

.171

RBI

K-BB

4-4

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-13	@ BOS	2	0	0	0	1	—
06-12	@ BOS	3	2	0	0	0	.667
06-10	@ KC	1	0	0	1	0	—
06-09	@ KC	5	1	0	0	1	.600
06-07	vs CLE	5	0	0	0	1	—
06-06	vs CLE	3	0	0	0	0	—
06-05	vs CLE	1	0	0	0	0	—
06-03	@ STL	5	1	2	0	1	.600

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
SISinker27PA	.278	.478	11.1	64.7	56	23.3
FF4-Seam Fastball64PA	.226	.402	13.3	61.0	53	26.1
STSweeper12PA	.334	.363	16.7	50.0	50	33.3
SLSlider26PA	.272	.341	21.4	57.1	43	36.2

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

SISinker

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES	.667	.569	0.0	75.0	75	18.8	—	7
vs RHP	.071	.450	14.3	57.1	50	17.2	114	21

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHP	.259	.392	11.6	62.8	54	25.2	114	68

STSweeper

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHP	—	.353	0.0	33.3	33	40.0	114	8

SLSlider

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHP	.240	.342	21.4	57.1	43	38.0	114	29

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

🐾vs LHB

vs RHB

vs SHB

Globe Life Field. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Pederson.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Hottest from spot #3 — 21 of 29 career HRs (72%).

🐾

Hot spots:#3

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast.

Season Statcast

ISO

.200

Barrel %

9.6

Hard Hit %

47.8

Pull % (HRs)

xwOBA

.349

xBA

.253

Brl / PA %

6.20

Max EV (mph)

110.6

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

109.1

Avg EV on HRs

106.8

Avg HR Distance (ft)

394

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

0/4

Crushed (105+ mph)

3/4

Avg LA on HRs

29.5°

Brl / PA %

6.20

Sampled across 4 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

🐾 Hottest zone: #1 (xwOBA .421). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (TEX)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Globe Life Field (329/407/326 ft) · elev 591ft

4 HRs this season

vs RHP 4vs LHP 0

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

FF🐾4-Seam Fastball3

SLSlider1

Bats L · Pull side: RF

HR Drought — when he's due

HR Drought

games since last HR

PAs since last HR

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
vs RHP193PA	.173	.414	.761	9.1%	7
vs LHP16PA	.538	.769	1.102	18.2%	1

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Home104PA	.297	.495	.793	13.2%	8
Away105PA	.095	.381	.775	6.0%	0

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Day62PA	.146	.313	.657	12.8%	2
🐾Night147PA	.220	.488	.835	8.7%	6

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty59PA	.220	.460	.805	2
Runners On77PA	.122	.364	.676	1
RISP46PA	.135	.432	.802	1

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs95PA	.202	.430	.767	5
1 Out66PA	.189	.491	.906	1
2 Outs48PA	.209	.395	.666	2

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. Home · Night · Mon.