Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

13.2%

+660

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Joe Ryan (0.88 HR/9) · park 94

Batting #1Confirmed lineup

2+ RBI

11.2%

+790

RBI 1+

34.6%

+189

Hits 1+

64.8%

-185

Hits 2+

22.7%

+341

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

24.1%

95% CI · 23.7–24.6%

+314

Fair odds

1st AB

6.9%

Through AB2

13.0%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park-6%
Temp+5%
vs SP+1%
Lineup+3%
Contact+26%
SP Contact+5%
Statcast+11%
SP Statcast+3%

🎯 Early-AB cues

·93F game
·Big bats hitting behind
·Elite batted-ball profile (home) — Pull/Hard/FB/HR-FB above league
·Elite Statcast power (barrel%/EV/bat speed above league)

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0423 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)+1% (×1.01) · blended_proj

Park-6% (×0.94)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp+5% (×1.05)

Lineup+3% (×1.03)

Contact (batted-ball)+26% (×1.26)

Statcast (barrel/EV)+11% (×1.11)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)+5% (×1.05)

SP Statcast allowed+3% (×1.03)

Discipline-1% (×0.99)

HR Odds History

Price range · 18 games

Now

+395

High

+960

Low

+260

Med

+658

Avg

+613

+395

Low +260High +960

BUILDING HISTORY

No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.

HR Winners — odds that cashed

No priced HR games in the tracked window yet.

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-07-16 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

9.0

Proj PA

182

HR / PA

.050

ISO

.218

wOBA

.345

wRC+

122

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Home2026-07-16 · FG

Season

HR/FB

20.5

Hard%

44.1

FB%

39.0

Pull%

41.5

Soft%

11.7

GB%

41.2

vs LHP

HR/FB

33.3

Hard%

40.0

FB%

30.0

Pull%

50.0

Soft%

10.0

GB%

40.0

vs RHP

HR/FB

20.0

Hard%

44.4

FB%

39.5

Pull%

41.0

Soft%

11.8

GB%

41.2

🐾Home

HR/FB

21.7

Hard%

49.0

FB%

45.5

Pull%

50.0

Soft%

8.8

GB%

39.6

Away

HR/FB

18.5

Hard%

38.4

FB%

31.4

Pull%

31.4

Soft%

15.1

GB%

43.0

🐾 = split that matches tonight (Home). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

4.0 🐾

STRONG PLAY

Joe Ryan stingy: only 0.88 HR/9
Crushes 1/3 of SP's top pitches (FF)
Historical sweet spot in the order: #3 (72% of career HRs)
94°F — ball flies in warm air
High barrels/PA (6.4%)
Pitcher high contact-quality allowed (10.5% brl)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.212↓ vs season .25735 PA · 15d

OPS

.681

ISO

.212

RBI

K-BB

5-1

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	HR	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-16	vs MIN	4	1	0	0	0	0	.250
06-15	vs MIN	3	2	1	2	0	1	1.667
💣 394ft · 104.3 EV · Cutter
06-14	@ BOS	1	0	0	0	0	0	—
06-13	@ BOS	2	0	0	0	0	1	—
06-12	@ BOS	3	2	0	0	0	0	.667
06-10	@ KC	1	0	0	0	1	0	—
06-09	@ KC	5	1	0	0	0	1	.600
06-07	vs CLE	5	0	0	0	0	1	—

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾FF4-Seam Fastball66PA	.222	.404	13.0	59.5	54	25.6
🐾STSweeper13PA	.300	.335	16.7	50.0	50	37.5
🐾CUCurveball25PA	—	.171	0.0	5.9	64	28.3
🐾SISinker27PA	.278	.478	11.1	64.7	56	23.3

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHP	.254	.394	11.4	61.4	55	24.8	120	70

STSweeper

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHP	—	.353	0.0	33.3	33	40.0	120	8

CUCurveball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHP	—	.189	0.0	7.1	64	30.6	120	21

SISinker

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES	.667	.569	0.0	75.0	75	18.8	—	7
vs RHP	.071	.450	14.3	57.1	50	17.2	120	21

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

🐾vs LHB

vs RHB

vs SHB

Globe Life Field. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Pederson.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Tonight: Batting #1Confirmed1 of 29 HRs · 3%

🐾 Hottest from spot #3 — 21 of 29 career HRs (72%).

🐾

Hot spots:#3

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast. 🐾 jade outline = tonight's spot.

Season Statcast

ISO

.208

Barrel %

9.8

Hard Hit %

47.6

Pull % (HRs)

xwOBA

.353

xBA

.257

Brl / PA %

6.40

Max EV (mph)

110.6

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

109.1

Avg EV on HRs

106.8

Avg HR Distance (ft)

394

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

0/4

Crushed (105+ mph)

3/4

Avg LA on HRs

29.5°

Brl / PA %

6.40

Sampled across 4 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Joe Ryan · top 3 pitches tonight

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

🐾 HIGH EXPLOIT

FF4-Seam Fastball
Use%
44
xwOBA
.404
Whiff%
25.6
HH%
59.5
BRL%
13.0
Pull%
54
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.
STSweeper
Use%
14
xwOBA
.335
Whiff%
37.5
HH%
50.0
BRL%
16.7
Pull%
50
CUCurveball
Use%
12
xwOBA
.171
Whiff%
28.3
HH%
5.9
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
64
⚠ Struggles against this pitch in 25 PA this season.

Career vs Joe Ryan

🐾 Tonight's matchup

—AVG · small sample (3 PA)

OPS

.333

RBI

K-BB

1-1

Joe Ryan arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
FF4-Seam Fastball	44.1	12.6	48.5	56	.310	18.4
STSweeper⚡ PUT-AWAY	14.0	10.0	28.6	77	.234	32.1
CUCurveball	12.2	—	24.0	—	.219	21.3
SISinker	11.8	10.0	50.0	45	.301	17.4

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball44% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	13.3	50.7	57	.308	23.4	105
vs RHB	11.1	47.2	53	.311	13.4	56

STSweeper⚡ PUT-AWAY14% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	16.7	41.7	75	.331	33.3	18
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	5.6	22.2	78	.180	30.2	33

SISinker12% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	0.0	33.3	58	.301	21.1	20
vs RHB	14.3	64.3	39	.304	12.9	32

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 32.1% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #1 (xwOBA .421). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (TEX)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Globe Life Field (329/407/326 ft) · elev 591ft

4 HRs this season

vs RHP 4vs LHP 0

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

FF🐾4-Seam Fastball3

SLSlider1

Bats L · Pull side: RF

HR Drought — when he's due

HR Drought

games since last HR

PAs since last HR

Homers about every 8.0 games · 26 PA (1 HR in 8 G)

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
vs RHP201PA	.183	.432	.785	9.4%	8
vs LHP17PA	.500	.714	1.027	18.2%	1

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Home112PA	.306	.520	.833	13.4%	9
Away106PA	.094	.376	.766	5.9%	0

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Day62PA	.146	.313	.657	12.8%	2
Night156PA	.230	.504	.857	9.0%	7

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty61PA	.212	.462	.812	2
Runners On82PA	.155	.394	.699	2
RISP49PA	.125	.400	.747	1

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs97PA	.200	.438	.789	5
1 Out68PA	.236	.545	.963	2
2 Outs53PA	.187	.375	.639	2

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. Home · Day · Thu.