Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

10.6%

+845

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Sean Manaea (1.10 HR/9) · park 92

Batting #6Projected lineup

2+ RBI

9.8%

+918

RBI 1+

33.3%

+200

Hits 1+

63.8%

-177

Hits 2+

21.7%

+362

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

10.1%

95% CI · 9.8–10.4%

+891

Fair odds

1st AB

2.7%

Through AB2

5.5%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park-8%
Temp+5%
vs SP+11%
Contact+6%
SP Contact-3%
Statcast-8%

🎯 Early-AB cues

·88F game
·Weak Statcast contact (barrel%/EV below league)

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0284 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)+11% (×1.11) · blended_proj

Park-8% (×0.92)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp+5% (×1.05)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)+6% (×1.06)

Statcast (barrel/EV)-8% (×0.92)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)-3% (×0.97)

SP Statcast allowed+1% (×1.01)

Discipline+0% (×1.00)

HR Odds History

Price range · 18 games

Now

+535

High

+1190

Low

+435

Med

+628

Avg

+718

+535

Low +435High +1190

BUILDING HISTORY

No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.

HR Winners — odds that cashed

No priced HR games in the tracked window yet.

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-07-16 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

6.5

Proj PA

201

HR / PA

.033

ISO

.171

wOBA

.329

wRC+

106

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Home2026-07-16 · FG

Season

HR/FB

10.9

Hard%

32.8

FB%

36.2

Pull%

42.4

Soft%

14.1

GB%

42.4

vs LHP

HR/FB

4.5

Hard%

38.8

FB%

44.9

Pull%

38.8

Soft%

8.2

GB%

30.6

vs RHP

HR/FB

14.3

Hard%

30.5

FB%

32.8

Pull%

43.8

Soft%

16.4

GB%

46.9

🐾Home

HR/FB

9.1

Hard%

40.0

FB%

36.7

Pull%

43.3

Soft%

12.2

GB%

41.1

Away

HR/FB

12.9

Hard%

25.3

FB%

35.6

Pull%

41.4

Soft%

16.1

GB%

43.7

🐾 = split that matches tonight (Home). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

3.0 🐾

LEAN

Citizens Bank Park suppresses HRs (92)
Historical sweet spot in the order: #4 (47% of career HRs)
89°F — ball flies in warm air
19 mph wind — check direction relative to spray
Park drag (92)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.158↓ vs season .25143 PA · 15d

OPS

.651

ISO

.237

RBI

K-BB

12-5

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	HR	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-16	vs MIA	4	0	0	0	0	3	—
06-15	vs MIA	4	1	1	2	0	0	1.000
💣 412ft · 107.4 EV · Slider
06-13	@ MIL	4	3	1	4	1	0	1.500
💣 416ft · 101.6 EV · Sinker
06-12	@ MIL	3	0	0	0	0	1	—
06-10	@ TOR	4	0	0	0	0	1	—
06-09	@ TOR	4	0	0	0	0	3	—
06-08	@ TOR	4	1	0	1	0	1	.250
06-06	vs CHW	2	0	0	0	2	1	—

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾FF4-Seam Fastball61PA	.094	.316	4.8	36.6	48	17.3
🐾STSweeper20PA	—	.194	0.0	15.4	85	29.6
🐾SISinker44PA	.075	.346	2.5	38.9	75	12.8

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	—	.268	0.0	25.0	67	17.8	37	18
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHES	.154	.338	6.7	43.3	40	15.5	82	44

STSweeper

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHP	—	.214	0.0	16.7	83	24.0	82	18

SISinker

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	—	.333	0.0	30.0	60	0.0	37	11
vs RHP	.086	.351	3.3	43.3	80	13.2	82	39

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

vs LHB

131

🐾vs RHB

vs SHB

111

Citizens Bank Park. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Realmuto.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Tonight: Batting #6Projected2 of 17 HRs · 12%

🐾 Hottest from spot #4 — 8 of 17 career HRs (47%).

🐾

Hot spots:#4#5

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast. 🐾 jade outline = tonight's spot.

Season Statcast

ISO

.115

Barrel %

5.4

Hard Hit %

39.5

Pull % (HRs)

100

xwOBA

.321

xBA

.251

Brl / PA %

3.80

Max EV (mph)

109.3

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

98.8

Avg EV on HRs

98.8

Avg HR Distance (ft)

401

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

0/1

Crushed (105+ mph)

0/1

Avg LA on HRs

28.0°

Brl / PA %

3.80

Sampled across 1 home run. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Sean Manaea · top 3 pitches tonight

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Tough matchup

FF4-Seam Fastball
Use%
37
xwOBA
.316
Whiff%
17.3
HH%
36.6
BRL%
4.8
Pull%
48
STSweeper
Use%
32
xwOBA
.194
Whiff%
29.6
HH%
15.4
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
85
⚠ Struggles against this pitch in 20 PA this season.
SISinker
Use%
19
xwOBA
.346
Whiff%
12.8
HH%
38.9
BRL%
2.5
Pull%
75

Career vs Sean Manaea

🐾 Tonight's matchup

.100AVG · limited (11 PA)

OPS

.282

RBI

K-BB

6-0

Sean Manaea arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
FF4-Seam Fastball	37.2	11.5	51.0	40	.330	18.8
STSweeper	32.2	9.5	28.9	86	.279	20.2
SISinker⚡ PUT-AWAY	18.7	2.5	32.5	55	.326	28.6

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball37% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	8.3	50.0	50	.376	23.1	20
vs RHB	12.5	52.5	38	.316	18.0	64

STSweeper32% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	15.4	38.5	85	.202	26.5	27
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	6.9	24.1	86	.334	15.0	43

SISinker⚡ PUT-AWAY19% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	0.0	25.0	50	.264	27.3	23
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	5.0	40.0	60	.376	23.1	30

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 28.6% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #8 (xwOBA .410). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (PHI)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Citizens Bank Park (329/401/330 ft) · elev 39ft

1 HRs this season

vs RHP 1vs LHP 0

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

SLSlider1

Bats R · Pull side: LF

HR Drought — when he's due

HR Drought

games since last HR

PAs since last HR

Homers about every 4.0 games · 16 PA (2 HR in 8 G)

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
vs RHP138PA	.155	.366	.656	6.1%	5
vs LHP47PA	—	.190	.467	2.6%	0

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Home108PA	.125	.344	.650	6.0%	3
Away77PA	.102	.290	.550	3.7%	2

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Day68PA	.070	.228	.507	2.0%	1
Night117PA	.139	.370	.661	7.0%	4

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty63PA	.085	.305	.575	1
Runners On81PA	.114	.343	.664	2
RISP49PA	.098	.293	.599	1

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs59PA	.173	.327	.564	3
1 Out60PA	.069	.276	.509	1
2 Outs66PA	.109	.364	.743	1

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. Home · Day · Thu.