Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Showing tomorrow's slate. Projections and lineups will refine as the slate locks in.

Home Run

9.6%

+942

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Ryan Gusto (RHP) (1.20 HR/9) · park 92

2+ RBI

9.3%

+978

RBI 1+

32.8%

+205

Hits 1+

63.8%

-177

Hits 2+

21.7%

+362

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

9.3%

95% CI · 8.9–9.6%

+980

Fair odds

1st AB

2.2%

Through AB2

4.6%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park-8%
Contact-1%
Statcast-10%
SP Statcast+3%
Discipline+1%

🎯 Early-AB cuesvs Ryan Gusto (RHP)

·Weak Statcast contact (barrel%/EV below league)

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0272 · blended_3sys

TTO rampconstant

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)+0% (×1.00) · blended_proj

Park-8% (×0.92)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp0% (×1.00)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)-1% (×0.99)

Statcast (barrel/EV)-10% (×0.90)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)0% (×1.00)

SP Statcast allowed+3% (×1.03)

Discipline+1% (×1.01)

HR Odds History

Price range · 13 games

Now

+750

High

+1260

Low

+560

Med

+695

Avg

+735

+750

Low +560High +1260

BUILDING HISTORY

No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.

HR Winners — odds that cashed

No priced HR games in the tracked window yet.

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-06-14 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

8.6

Proj PA

281

HR / PA

.030

ISO

.166

wOBA

.332

wRC+

109

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Home2026-06-14 · FG

Season

HR/FB

8.9

Hard%

31.5

FB%

36.3

Pull%

44.4

Soft%

13.7

GB%

44.4

vs LHP

HR/FB

0.0

Hard%

38.9

FB%

44.4

Pull%

44.4

Soft%

8.3

GB%

33.3

🐾vs RHP

HR/FB

13.8

Hard%

28.4

FB%

33.0

Pull%

44.3

Soft%

15.9

GB%

48.9

🐾Home

HR/FB

7.7

Hard%

42.3

FB%

36.6

Pull%

43.7

Soft%

9.9

GB%

43.7

Away

HR/FB

10.5

Hard%

17.0

FB%

35.8

Pull%

45.3

Soft%

18.9

GB%

45.3

🐾 = split that matches tonight (vs RHP, Home). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

2.0 🐾

DART THROW

Citizens Bank Park suppresses HRs (92)
Historical sweet spot in the order: #4 (47% of career HRs)
Park drag (92)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.167↓ vs season .25136 PA · 15d

OPS

.673

ISO

.200

RBI

K-BB

9-5

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	HR	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-13	@ MIL	4	3	1	4	1	0	1.500
💣 416ft · 101.6 EV · Sinker
06-12	@ MIL	3	0	0	0	0	1	—
06-10	@ TOR	4	0	0	0	0	1	—
06-09	@ TOR	4	0	0	0	0	3	—
06-08	@ TOR	4	1	0	1	0	1	.250
06-06	vs CHW	2	0	0	0	2	1	—
06-05	vs CHW	2	0	0	0	2	0	—
06-04	vs SD	4	0	0	0	0	2	—

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB. Metrics are this hitter's vs RHP split.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾FF4-Seam FastballvR43PA	.158	.346	6.7	43.3	40	14.7

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	—	.268	0.0	25.0	67	17.8	41	18
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHESTONIGHT	.158	.346	6.7	43.3	40	14.7	83	43

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

vs LHB

131

🐾vs RHB

vs SHB

111

Citizens Bank Park. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Realmuto.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Hottest from spot #4 — 8 of 17 career HRs (47%).

🐾

Hot spots:#4#5

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast.

Season Statcast

ISO

.102

Barrel %

4.8

Hard Hit %

38.7

Pull % (HRs)

100

xwOBA

.320

xBA

.251

Brl / PA %

3.40

Max EV (mph)

109.3

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

98.8

Avg EV on HRs

98.8

Avg HR Distance (ft)

401

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

0/1

Crushed (105+ mph)

0/1

Avg LA on HRs

28.0°

Brl / PA %

3.40

Sampled across 1 home run. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Ryan Gusto · top 3 pitches tonightvs RHP split

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

🐾 LEAN EXPLOIT

FF4-Seamervs RHP
Use%
31
xwOBA
.346
Whiff%
14.7
HH%
43.3
BRL%
6.7
Pull%
40

Ryan Gusto (RHP) arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
FF4-Seamer	31.1	20.0	60.0	0	.410	—

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seamer31% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	no sample
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	25.0	50.0	0	.453	14.3	6

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #8 (xwOBA .410). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (PHI)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Citizens Bank Park (329/401/330 ft) · elev 39ft

1 HRs this season

vs RHP 1vs LHP 0

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

SLSlider1

Bats R · Pull side: LF

HR Drought — when he's due

HR Drought

games since last HR

PAs since last HR

Homers about every 8.0 games · 32 PA (1 HR in 8 G)

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾vs RHP131PA	.137	.353	.651	5.4%	4
vs LHP46PA	—	.195	.478	2.6%	0

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Home100PA	.103	.330	.650	5.1%	2
Away77PA	.102	.290	.550	3.7%	2

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Day68PA	.070	.228	.507	2.0%	1
Night109PA	.120	.360	.663	6.2%	3

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty60PA	.089	.321	.604	1
Runners On78PA	.075	.299	.620	1
RISP47PA	.103	.308	.627	1

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs57PA	.180	.340	.586	3
1 Out55PA	.018	.226	.462	0
2 Outs65PA	.111	.370	.755	1

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. vs RHP · Home · Day · Mon.