Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

7.6%

+1216

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Parker Messick (0.90 HR/9) · park 84

Batting #1Confirmed lineup

2+ RBI

8.2%

+1123

RBI 1+

31.8%

+214

Hits 1+

60.3%

-152

Hits 2+

18.3%

+446

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

9.3%

95% CI · 9.0–9.7%

+971

Fair odds

1st AB

2.4%

Through AB2

4.7%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park-16%
vs SP-5%
Lineup+3%
Contact+9%
SP Contact-9%
Statcast-1%
SP Statcast-4%
Discipline-1%

🎯 Early-AB cues

·Big bats hitting behind
·Elite batted-ball profile (home) — Pull/Hard/FB/HR-FB above league

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0297 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)-5% (×0.95) · blended_proj

Park-16% (×0.84)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp0% (×1.00)

Lineup+3% (×1.03)

Contact (batted-ball)+9% (×1.09)

Statcast (barrel/EV)-1% (×0.99)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)-9% (×0.91)

SP Statcast allowed-4% (×0.96)

Discipline-1% (×0.99)

HR Odds History

Price range · 18 games · 1 HR

Now

+635

High

+2605

Low

+400

Med

+850

Avg

+1019

🐾+635

Low +400🐾 HR money zoneHigh +2605

🐾 PRIME SPOTspot score 100

Tonight's price is in his money zone — he's gone yard 1× priced here.

⚠ Thin sample (1 HR game) — a hint, not a lock.

HR Winners — odds that cashed

🐾+6602026-07-04vs ARIbook line

AwayBat 2ndoff RHP4-Seamer

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-07-16 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

6.5

Proj PA

228

HR / PA

.029

ISO

.148

wOBA

.323

wRC+

104

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Home2026-07-16 · FG

Season

HR/FB

13.3

Hard%

34.3

FB%

27.6

Pull%

34.9

Soft%

13.3

GB%

55.2

vs LHP

HR/FB

13.3

Hard%

30.8

FB%

30.0

Pull%

34.6

Soft%

21.2

GB%

56.0

vs RHP

HR/FB

13.3

Hard%

36.0

FB%

26.5

Pull%

35.1

Soft%

9.6

GB%

54.9

🐾Home

HR/FB

14.3

Hard%

37.5

FB%

29.6

Pull%

37.5

Soft%

15.3

GB%

53.5

Away

HR/FB

12.5

Hard%

31.9

FB%

26.1

Pull%

33.0

Soft%

11.7

GB%

56.5

🐾 = split that matches tonight (Home). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

2.0 🐾

DART THROW

American Family Field suppresses HRs (84)
Parker Messick stingy: only 0.90 HR/9
Historical sweet spot in the order: #3 (69% of career HRs)
Park drag (84)
High barrels/PA (4.4%)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.255↑ vs season .23157 PA · 15d

OPS

.689

ISO

.118

RBI

K-BB

17-4

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	HR	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-17	vs CLE	5	2	1	2	0	3	1.000
💣 387ft · 103.8 EV · Curveball
06-16	vs CLE	4	0	0	0	0	1	—
06-13	vs PHI	3	1	0	1	1	1	.333
06-12	vs PHI	4	0	0	0	1	1	—
06-10	@ ATH	4	1	0	0	1	2	.500
06-09	@ ATH	5	2	0	1	0	1	.400
06-08	@ ATH	7	2	0	0	0	2	.286
06-06	@ COL	5	2	0	0	1	2	.400

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾FF4-Seam Fastball42PA	.131	.304	6.5	48.1	71	24.0
🐾CHChangeup11PA	.445	.358	33.3	60.0	100	33.3
🐾SISinker35PA	.034	.353	3.8	40.0	58	14.5
🐾CUCurveball13PA	.231	.252	20.0	33.3	0	47.6

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES	.334	.363	0.0	50.0	75	18.5	123	9
vs RHP	.079	.290	7.4	40.7	70	23.4	112	39

CHChangeup

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHP	.778	.394	33.3	66.7	100	36.4	112	12

SISinker

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	—	.279	0.0	29.4	71	13.2	123	21
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHES	.077	.452	11.1	55.6	33	16.7	112	17

CUCurveball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHP	.334	.255	25.0	50.0	0	50.0	112	9

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

🐾vs LHB

vs RHB

108

vs SHB

American Family Field. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Yelich.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Tonight: Batting #1Confirmed0 of 36 HRs · 0%

🐾 Hottest from spot #3 — 25 of 36 career HRs (69%).

🐾

Hot spots:#3

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast. 🐾 jade outline = tonight's spot.

Season Statcast

ISO

.153

Barrel %

7.2

Hard Hit %

38.7

Pull % (HRs)

100

xwOBA

.298

xBA

.231

Brl / PA %

4.40

Max EV (mph)

111.1

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

111.1

Avg EV on HRs

107.3

Avg HR Distance (ft)

407

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

1/4

Crushed (105+ mph)

3/4

Avg LA on HRs

32.8°

Brl / PA %

4.40

Sampled across 4 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Parker Messick · top 3 pitches tonight

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

🐾 LEAN EXPLOIT

FF4-Seam Fastball
Use%
31
xwOBA
.304
Whiff%
24.0
HH%
48.1
BRL%
6.5
Pull%
71
CHChangeup
Use%
25
xwOBA
.358
Whiff%
33.3
HH%
60.0
BRL%
33.3
Pull%
100
SISinker
Use%
17
xwOBA
.353
Whiff%
14.5
HH%
40.0
BRL%
3.8
Pull%
58

Parker Messick arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
FF4-Seam Fastball⚡ PUT-AWAY	31.3	8.2	36.2	43	.230	25.0
CHChangeup	24.7	7.7	23.9	60	.234	24.8
SISinker	16.9	5.0	49.1	62	.415	7.1
CUCurveball	11.1	4.2	9.5	63	.252	—

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball⚡ PUT-AWAY31% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	11.1	38.9	44	.214	25.8	29
vs RHB	7.3	41.8	42	.236	22.8	91

CHChangeup25% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	0.0	60.0	80	.256	29.4	15
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	8.5	25.5	57	.231	25.5	87

SISinker17% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	0.0	28.0	60	.328	8.3	30
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	8.6	60.0	63	.475	0.0	37

CUCurveball11% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	0.0	11.1	67	.159	0.0	10
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	6.7	26.7	60	.312	0.0	16

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 25.0% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #5 (xwOBA .506). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (MIL)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: American Family Field (344/400/345 ft) · elev 635ft

4 HRs this season

vs RHP 3vs LHP 1

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

CH🐾Changeup2

FSSplitter1

STSweeper1

Bats L · Pull side: RF

HR Drought — when he's due

HR Drought

games since last HR

PAs since last HR

Homers about every 8.0 games · 42 PA (1 HR in 8 G)

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
vs RHP128PA	.148	.426	.770	8.0%	3
vs LHP54PA	.167	.438	.790	5.6%	2

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Home97PA	.141	.435	.806	10.3%	3
Away85PA	.167	.423	.741	3.6%	2

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Day52PA	.260	.600	.965	9.5%	3
Night130PA	.106	.354	.692	6.1%	2

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty43PA	.158	.316	.572	1
Runners On87PA	.127	.443	.811	2
RISP50PA	.089	.422	.802	1

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs67PA	.150	.450	.808	2
1 Out52PA	.127	.404	.750	1
2 Outs63PA	.179	.429	.762	2

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. Home · Day · Thu.