Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

8.9%

+1017

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Trey Gibson (RHP) (1.06 HR/9) · park 88

2+ RBI

8.9%

+1021

RBI 1+

32.5%

+208

Hits 1+

64.3%

-181

Hits 2+

22.2%

+351

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

11.3%

95% CI · 10.9–11.7%

+785

Fair odds

1st AB

3.0%

Through AB2

5.9%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park-12%
Temp+5%
vs SP-3%
Contact+18%
SP Contact+5%
Statcast-3%
SP Statcast+4%
Discipline+2%

🎯 Early-AB cuesvs Trey Gibson (RHP)

·90F game
·Elite batted-ball profile (away) — Pull/Hard/FB/HR-FB above league

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0256 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)-3% (×0.97) · blended_proj

Park-12% (×0.88)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp+5% (×1.05)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)+18% (×1.18)

Statcast (barrel/EV)-3% (×0.97)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)+5% (×1.05)

SP Statcast allowed+4% (×1.04)

Discipline+2% (×1.02)

HR Odds History

Price range · 13 games

Now

+1015

High

+1190

Low

+620

Med

+780

Avg

+826

+1015

Low +620High +1190

BUILDING HISTORY

No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.

Recent — tap a game

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-06-13 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

10.4

Proj PA

368

HR / PA

.028

ISO

.151

wOBA

.332

wRC+

114

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Away2026-06-13 · FG

Season

HR/FB

13.1

Hard%

35.4

FB%

33.7

Pull%

51.4

Soft%

16.0

GB%

51.4

vs LHP

HR/FB

5.6

Hard%

36.0

FB%

36.0

Pull%

44.0

Soft%

14.0

GB%

54.0

🐾vs RHP

HR/FB

16.3

Hard%

35.1

FB%

32.8

Pull%

54.2

Soft%

16.8

GB%

50.4

Home

HR/FB

8.8

Hard%

35.3

FB%

33.3

Pull%

50.0

Soft%

18.6

GB%

51.0

🐾Away

HR/FB

17.9

Hard%

35.4

FB%

34.1

Pull%

53.7

Soft%

13.4

GB%

51.2

🐾 = split that matches tonight (vs RHP, Away). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

2.0 🐾

DART THROW

Oriole Park at Camden Yards suppresses HRs (88)
Crushes 1/3 of SP's top pitches (FC)
Historical sweet spot in the order: #5 (55% of career HRs)
90°F — ball flies in warm air
Park drag (88)
High barrels/PA (4.8%)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.167↓ vs season .25443 PA · 15d

OPS

.557

ISO

.111

RBI

K-BB

9-5

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-12	@ BAL	3	1	0	1	0	.333
06-08	vs CIN	4	2	0	0	0	.750
06-07	vs NYM	4	1	0	0	1	.250
06-06	vs NYM	2	0	0	1	1	—
06-05	vs NYM	3	0	0	0	1	—
06-04	@ PHI	4	0	0	0	1	—
06-03	@ PHI	3	0	1	0	1	—
06-02	@ PHI	3	0	0	1	3	—

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB. Metrics are this hitter's vs RHP split.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾SISinkervR64PA	.147	.332	5.7	43.4	76	15.8
🐾FCCuttervR13PA	—	.285	0.0	33.3	56	13.3
🐾SLSlidervR21PA	—	.346	0.0	45.5	64	36.1
🐾CUCurveballvR9PA	—	.285	0.0	50.0	50	35.7

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

SISinker

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	—	.245	0.0	31.2	63	0.0	81	18
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHESTONIGHT	.147	.332	5.7	43.4	76	15.8	92	64

FCCutter

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHPTONIGHT	—	.285	0.0	33.3	56	13.3	92	13

SLSlider

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHPTONIGHT	—	.346	0.0	45.5	64	36.1	92	21

CUCurveball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHPTONIGHT	—	.285	0.0	50.0	50	35.7	92	9

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

vs LHB

136

🐾vs RHB

vs SHB

112

Oriole Park at Camden Yards. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Bogaerts.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Hottest from spot #5 — 6 of 11 career HRs (55%).

🐾

Hot spots:#5

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast.

Season Statcast

ISO

.123

Barrel %

6.6

Hard Hit %

37.6

Pull % (HRs)

100

xwOBA

.322

xBA

.254

Brl / PA %

4.80

Max EV (mph)

110.4

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

108.3

Avg EV on HRs

104.8

Avg HR Distance (ft)

397

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

0/8

Crushed (105+ mph)

3/8

Avg LA on HRs

27.9°

Brl / PA %

4.80

Sampled across 8 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Trey Gibson · top 3 pitches tonightvs RHP split

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Neutral matchup

SISinkervs RHP
Use%
28
xwOBA
.332
Whiff%
15.8
HH%
43.4
BRL%
5.7
Pull%
76
FCCuttervs RHP
Use%
24
xwOBA
.285
Whiff%
13.3
HH%
33.3
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
56
SLSlidervs RHP
Use%
19
xwOBA
.346
Whiff%
36.1
HH%
45.5
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
64

Trey Gibson (RHP) arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
SISinker	28.4	10.0	40.0	55	.370	5.9
FCCutter	24.2	14.3	42.9	71	.425	7.1
SLSlider	18.9	0.0	50.0	75	.341	7.7
CUCurveball⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	16.1	25.0	50.0	63	.580	16.7

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

SISinker28% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	0.0	57.1	57	.436	—	7
vs RHB	15.4	30.8	54	.342	7.1	16

FCCutter24% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	22.2	44.4	67	.541	0.0	9
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	0.0	40.0	80	.276	12.5	7

SLSlider19% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	0.0	33.3	100	.267	13.3	8
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	0.0	66.7	50	.425	0.0	7

CUCurveball⚡ PUT-AWAY16% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	14.3	42.9	57	.447	20.0	9
vs RHB	no sample

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 16.7% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #2 (xwOBA .491). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (BAL)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Camden Yards (333/410/318 ft) · elev 36ft

8 HRs this season

vs RHP 8vs LHP 0

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

FF🐾4-Seam Fastball4

SISinker3

STSweeper1

Bats R · Pull side: LF

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾vs RHP193PA	.136	.365	.676	8.5%	7
vs LHP62PA	.087	.328	.618	4.0%	1

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Home136PA	.095	.317	.589	6.4%	3
🐾Away119PA	.157	.402	.747	8.5%	5

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Day103PA	.135	.393	.752	7.9%	3
Night152PA	.115	.331	.601	7.0%	5

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty97PA	.140	.409	.708	4
Runners On103PA	.130	.365	.715	3
RISP63PA	.117	.333	.666	2

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs77PA	.060	.224	.484	1
1 Out100PA	.224	.511	.831	6
2 Outs78PA	.045	.269	.602	1

Count

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0-028PA	.214	.571	.929	2
1-015PA	.400	.800	1.200	2
0-129PA	.103	.310	.517	1
2-02PA	—	—	—	0
0-220PA	.100	.250	.400	0
3-06PA	—	—	1.000	0
1-238PA	.108	.297	.508	1
2-238PA	.105	.342	.579	1
3-245PA	.097	.323	.767	1

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. vs RHP · Away · Day · Sat.