Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

13.2%

+655

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Shane Drohan (0.64 HR/9) · park 108

Batting #9Confirmed lineup

2+ RBI

11.3%

+786

RBI 1+

34.6%

+189

Hits 1+

63.7%

-175

Hits 2+

21.5%

+365

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

6.3%

95% CI · 6.0–6.5%

+1499

Fair odds

1st AB

1.6%

Through AB2

3.1%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park+8%
vs SP-5%
Contact-6%
SP Contact+2%
Statcast-16%
Discipline-1%

🎯 Early-AB cues

·Weak Statcast contact (barrel%/EV below league)

⚠ Thin blended HR rate

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0189 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)-5% (×0.95) · blended_proj

Park+8% (×1.08)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp0% (×1.00)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)-6% (×0.94)

Statcast (barrel/EV)-16% (×0.84)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)+2% (×1.02)

SP Statcast allowed+0% (×1.00)

Discipline-1% (×0.99)

HR Odds History

Price range · 18 games

Now

+1040

High

+1140

Low

+600

Med

+785

Avg

+818

+1040

Low +600High +1140

BUILDING HISTORY

No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.

HR Winners — odds that cashed

No priced HR games in the tracked window yet.

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-07-16 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

2.2

Proj PA

HR / PA

.026

ISO

.125

wOBA

.276

wRC+

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Away2026-07-16 · FG

Season

HR/FB

9.4

Hard%

28.7

FB%

30.8

Pull%

51.9

Soft%

20.4

GB%

45.2

vs LHP

HR/FB

6.3

Hard%

30.0

FB%

28.6

Pull%

56.7

Soft%

18.3

GB%

48.2

vs RHP

HR/FB

12.5

Hard%

27.1

FB%

33.3

Pull%

45.8

Soft%

22.9

GB%

41.7

Home

HR/FB

12.5

Hard%

26.8

FB%

29.6

Pull%

60.7

Soft%

19.6

GB%

50.0

🐾Away

HR/FB

6.3

Hard%

30.8

FB%

32.0

Pull%

42.3

Soft%

21.2

GB%

40.0

🐾 = split that matches tonight (Away). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

4.0 🐾

STRONG PLAY

American Family Field mild HR boost (+8)
Shane Drohan stingy: only 0.64 HR/9
High barrels/PA (6.2%)
Pitcher suppresses HR (0.64 HR/9)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.389↑ vs season .25020 PA · 15d

OPS

.921

ISO

.111

RBI

K-BB

1-1

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-16	@ MIL	3	1	0	0	0	.333
06-13	vs DET	2	1	0	0	0	.500
06-10	vs NYY	4	2	2	0	0	1.000
06-09	vs NYY	3	1	0	0	0	.333
06-05	@ TEX	4	2	1	0	1	.500
06-04	@ NYY	2	0	0	1	0	—
05-31	vs BOS	4	1	2	0	2	.250
05-30	vs BOS	3	1	0	1	0	.333

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾FF4-Seam Fastball36PA	.104	.359	3.4	32.1	72	18.8
🐾SISinker25PA	—	.286	0.0	18.8	50	9.7
🐾SLSlider17PA	.062	.238	0.0	25.0	62	33.3
🐾FCCutter10PA	.334	.097	0.0	28.6	86	32.1

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	.063	.240	0.0	29.4	77	14.7	136	19
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHES	.142	.485	8.3	41.7	67	21.2	62	20

SISinker

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES	—	.364	0.0	37.5	63	8.3	136	13
vs RHP	—	.201	0.0	0.0	38	9.5	62	12

SLSlider

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES	.143	.312	0.0	20.0	40	28.6	136	7
vs RHP	—	.186	0.0	25.0	75	31.6	62	11

FCCutter

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHP	—	.053	0.0	25.0	75	31.8	62	8

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

vs LHB

🐾vs RHB

108

vs SHB

American Family Field. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Hedges.

Season Statcast

Barrel %

7.5

Pull % (HRs)

100

xBA

.250

Brl / PA %

6.18

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

96.8

Avg EV on HRs

96.8

Avg HR Distance (ft)

381

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

0/1

Crushed (105+ mph)

0/1

Avg LA on HRs

33.0°

Brl / PA %

6.18

Sampled across 1 home run. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Shane Drohan · top 3 pitches tonight

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Neutral matchup

FF4-Seam Fastball
Use%
28
xwOBA
.359
Whiff%
18.8
HH%
32.1
BRL%
3.4
Pull%
72
SISinker
Use%
22
xwOBA
.286
Whiff%
9.7
HH%
18.8
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
50
SLSlider
Use%
20
xwOBA
.238
Whiff%
33.3
HH%
25.0
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
62
⚠ Struggles against this pitch in 17 PA this season.

Shane Drohan arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
FF4-Seam Fastball	27.8	12.0	50.0	44	.252	22.7
SISinker⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	21.6	13.9	47.2	58	.344	25.0
SLSlider	19.6	3.0	25.8	70	.218	24.6
FCCutter	14.3	10.3	28.0	66	.352	8.3

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball28% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	15.4	38.5	54	.344	19.2	21
vs RHB	8.3	50.0	33	.183	23.5	28

SISinker⚡ PUT-AWAY22% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	7.1	42.9	79	.302	14.3	15
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	18.2	50.0	46	.370	33.3	25

SLSlider20% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	4.5	27.3	64	.213	31.4	33
vs RHB	0.0	27.3	82	.230	12.5	16

FCCutter14% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	16.7	16.7	83	.349	0.0	7
vs RHB	8.7	34.8	61	.353	9.1	25

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 25.0% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #4 (xwOBA .340). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (MIL)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: American Family Field (344/400/345 ft) · elev 635ft

1 HRs this season

vs RHP 0vs LHP 1

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

FCCutter1

Bats R · Pull side: LF

HR Drought — when he's due

HR Drought

games since last HR

PAs since last HR

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
vs RHP54PA	.041	.265	.561	2.6%	0
vs LHP56PA	.149	.468	.845	2.2%	1

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Home61PA	.054	.309	.626	4.7%	0
🐾Away49PA	.146	.439	.801	—	1

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Day53PA	.160	.440	.748	2.4%	1
Night57PA	.022	.283	.647	2.4%	0

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS
Bases Empty26PA	.046	.273	.619
Runners On55PA	.062	.327	.615
RISP36PA	.033	.200	.412

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs41PA	.176	.529	.950	1
1 Out37PA	.057	.314	.584	0
2 Outs32PA	.037	.222	.535	0

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. Away · Day · Thu.