Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

18.3%

+446

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Brandon Sproat (RHP) (1.80 HR/9) · park 108

2+ RBI

14.1%

+610

RBI 1+

37.2%

+169

Hits 1+

63.7%

-175

Hits 2+

21.5%

+365

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

7.3%

95% CI · 7.0–7.6%

+1265

Fair odds

1st AB

1.8%

Through AB2

3.7%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park+8%
Wind+3%
vs SP+1%
Contact-6%
SP Contact+12%
Statcast-16%

🎯 Early-AB cuesvs Brandon Sproat (RHP)

·10 mph wind out to OF
·SP allows hard, pulled fly balls (HR-prone contact)
·Weak Statcast contact (barrel%/EV below league)

⚠ Thin blended HR rate

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0186 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)+1% (×1.01) · blended_proj

Park+8% (×1.08)

Wind+3% (×1.03)

Temp0% (×1.00)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)-6% (×0.94)

Statcast (barrel/EV)-16% (×0.84)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)+12% (×1.12)

SP Statcast allowed+0% (×1.00)

Discipline+0% (×1.00)

HR Odds History

Price range · 6 games

Now

+445

High

+1245

Low

+445

Med

+945

Avg

+876

+445

Low +445High +1245

BUILDING HISTORY

No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.

HR Winners — odds that cashed

No priced HR games in the tracked window yet.

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-06-16 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

2.0

Proj PA

105

HR / PA

.019

ISO

.102

wOBA

.263

wRC+

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Away2026-06-16 · FG

Season

HR/FB

5.0

Hard%

26.6

FB%

26.3

Pull%

53.2

Soft%

24.1

GB%

50.0

vs LHP

HR/FB

11.1

Hard%

32.6

FB%

22.5

Pull%

58.1

Soft%

23.3

GB%

50.0

🐾vs RHP

HR/FB

0.0

Hard%

19.4

FB%

30.6

Pull%

47.2

Soft%

25.0

GB%

50.0

Home

HR/FB

0.0

Hard%

26.2

FB%

22.0

Pull%

59.5

Soft%

23.8

GB%

56.1

🐾Away

HR/FB

9.1

Hard%

27.0

FB%

31.4

Pull%

45.9

Soft%

24.3

GB%

42.9

🐾 = split that matches tonight (vs RHP, Away). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

5.0 🐾

ELITE BIG DAWG ENERGY

American Family Field mild HR boost (+8)
Brandon Sproat is leaky — 1.80 HR/9 allowed
High barrels/PA (6.2%)
Pitcher HR-prone (1.80 HR/9)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.389↑ vs season .25020 PA · 15d

OPS

.921

ISO

.111

RBI

K-BB

1-1

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-16	@ MIL	3	1	0	0	0	.333
06-13	vs DET	2	1	0	0	0	.500
06-10	vs NYY	4	2	2	0	0	1.000
06-09	vs NYY	3	1	0	0	0	.333
06-05	@ TEX	4	2	1	0	1	.500
06-04	@ NYY	2	0	0	1	0	—
05-31	vs BOS	4	1	2	0	2	.250
05-30	vs BOS	3	1	0	1	0	.333

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB. Metrics are this hitter's vs RHP split.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾SISinkervR12PA	—	.201	0.0	—	38	9.5
🐾FCCuttervR8PA	—	.053	0.0	25.0	75	31.8
🐾FF4-Seam FastballvR20PA	.142	.485	8.3	41.7	67	21.2
🐾CUCurveball	—	—	—	—	—	—

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

SISinker

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES	—	.389	0.0	42.9	57	9.1	139	12
vs RHPTONIGHT	—	.201	0.0	0.0	38	9.5	62	12

FCCutter

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHPTONIGHT	—	.053	0.0	25.0	75	31.8	62	8

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	.063	.240	0.0	29.4	77	16.1	139	19
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHESTONIGHT	.142	.485	8.3	41.7	67	21.2	62	20

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

vs LHB

🐾vs RHB

108

vs SHB

American Family Field. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Hedges.

Season Statcast

Barrel %

7.5

Pull % (HRs)

100

xBA

.250

Brl / PA %

6.18

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

96.8

Avg EV on HRs

96.8

Avg HR Distance (ft)

381

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

0/1

Crushed (105+ mph)

0/1

Avg LA on HRs

33.0°

Brl / PA %

6.18

Sampled across 1 home run. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Brandon Sproat · top 3 pitches tonightvs RHP split

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Tough matchup

SISinkervs RHP
Use%
27
xwOBA
.201
Whiff%
9.5
HH%
0.0
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
38
⚠ Struggles against this pitch in 12 PA this season.
FCCuttervs RHP
Use%
26
xwOBA
.053
Whiff%
31.8
HH%
25.0
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
75
FF4-Seam Fastballvs RHP
Use%
20
xwOBA
.485
Whiff%
21.2
HH%
41.7
BRL%
8.3
Pull%
67
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.

Brandon Sproat (RHP) arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
SISinker	27.4	5.7	41.2	55	.341	17.4
FCCutter	26.4	4.9	38.5	63	.371	14.7
FF4-Seam Fastball⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	19.5	11.5	57.7	42	.374	22.9
CUCurveball	11.5	27.8	58.8	61	.406	20.3

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

SISinker27% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	9.1	50.0	46	.368	20.7	36
vs RHB	3.2	32.3	61	.320	15.9	43

FCCutter26% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	5.9	47.1	71	.466	10.5	21
vs RHB	4.2	33.3	58	.314	17.6	31

FF4-Seam Fastball⚡ PUT-AWAY20% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	7.1	57.1	36	.316	19.6	28
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	16.7	58.3	50	.446	30.8	24

CUCurveball12% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	9.1	36.4	36	.283	24.5	27
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	57.1	85.7	100	.866	13.3	9

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 22.9% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #4 (xwOBA .340). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (MIL)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: American Family Field (344/400/345 ft) · elev 635ft

1 HRs this season

vs RHP 0vs LHP 1

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

FCCutter1

Bats R · Pull side: LF

HR Drought — when he's due

HR Drought

games since last HR

PAs since last HR

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾vs RHP54PA	.041	.265	.561	2.6%	0
vs LHP56PA	.149	.468	.845	2.3%	1

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Home61PA	.054	.309	.626	4.7%	0
🐾Away49PA	.146	.439	.801	—	1

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Day53PA	.160	.440	.748	2.4%	1
🐾Night57PA	.022	.283	.647	2.6%	0

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS
Bases Empty26PA	.046	.273	.619
Runners On55PA	.062	.327	.615
RISP36PA	.033	.200	.412

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs41PA	.176	.529	.950	1
1 Out37PA	.057	.314	.584	0
2 Outs32PA	.037	.222	.535	0

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. vs RHP · Away · Night · Wed.