Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

11.0%

+810

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Parker Messick (0.90 HR/9) · park 108

Batting #6Confirmed lineup

2+ RBI

10.0%

+896

RBI 1+

33.5%

+199

Hits 1+

63.7%

-175

Hits 2+

21.5%

+365

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

26.5%

95% CI · 26.0–27.0%

+277

Fair odds

1st AB

7.3%

Through AB2

13.8%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park+8%
vs SP-5%
Contact+20%
SP Contact+1%
Statcast+15%
SP Statcast-4%

🎯 Early-AB cues

·Elite batted-ball profile (home) — Pull/Hard/FB/HR-FB above league
·Elite Statcast power (barrel%/EV/bat speed above league)

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0498 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)-5% (×0.95) · blended_proj

Park+8% (×1.08)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp0% (×1.00)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)+20% (×1.20)

Statcast (barrel/EV)+15% (×1.15)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)+1% (×1.01)

SP Statcast allowed-4% (×0.96)

Discipline-1% (×0.99)

HR Odds History

Price range · 5 games

Now

+485

High

+785

Low

+420

Med

+480

Avg

+572

+485

Low +420High +785

BUILDING HISTORY

No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.

HR Winners — odds that cashed

No priced HR games in the tracked window yet.

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-07-16 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

3.7

Proj PA

HR / PA

.051

ISO

.213

wOBA

.331

wRC+

109

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Home2026-07-16 · FG

Season

HR/FB

16.0

Hard%

36.9

FB%

45.0

Pull%

45.9

Soft%

20.7

GB%

39.6

vs LHP

HR/FB

15.0

Hard%

41.3

FB%

43.5

Pull%

43.5

Soft%

21.7

GB%

37.0

vs RHP

HR/FB

16.7

Hard%

33.8

FB%

46.2

Pull%

47.7

Soft%

20.0

GB%

41.5

🐾Home

HR/FB

22.7

Hard%

38.0

FB%

44.0

Pull%

42.0

Soft%

22.0

GB%

36.0

Away

HR/FB

10.7

Hard%

36.1

FB%

45.9

Pull%

49.2

Soft%

19.7

GB%

42.6

🐾 = split that matches tonight (Home). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

3.0 🐾

LEAN

American Family Field mild HR boost (+8)
Parker Messick stingy: only 0.90 HR/9
Crushes 2/3 of SP's top pitches (FF, SI)
Historical sweet spot in the order: #4 (40% of career HRs)
High barrels/PA (6.2%)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.412↑ vs season .25019 PA · 15d

OPS

1.298

ISO

.412

RBI

K-BB

1-2

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	HR	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-17	vs CLE	1	0	0	0	0	0	—
06-14	vs PHI	4	1	0	0	0	0	.250
06-13	vs PHI	1	1	0	0	0	0	1.000
06-10	@ ATH	3	2	1	1	1	0	1.667
💣 — · Sweeper
06-07	@ COL	5	2	1	3	0	0	1.200
💣 447ft · 104.6 EV · Sinker
06-05	@ COL	0	0	0	0	1	0	—
06-04	vs SF	2	1	0	0	0	1	.500
06-03	vs SF	1	0	0	0	0	0	—

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾FF4-Seam Fastball43PA	.334	.453	13.8	32.1	41	18.3
🐾CHChangeup10PA	—	.253	11.1	33.3	89	50.0
🐾SISinker23PA	.166	.405	5.3	43.8	53	6.7
🐾CUCurveball11PA	.400	.384	14.3	28.6	71	35.3

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES	.539	.555	16.7	33.3	50	9.5	175	17
vs RHP	.182	.398	11.8	29.4	35	23.3	116	29

CHChangeup

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	.300	.281	12.5	50.0	88	42.9	175	11
vs RHP	no sample

SISinker

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	—	.417	0.0	50.0	25	11.1	175	6
vs RHP	.187	.406	6.7	33.3	60	0.0	116	20

CUCurveball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHP	.800	.549	25.0	25.0	75	12.5	116	6

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

vs LHB

🐾vs RHB

108

vs SHB

American Family Field. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Sánchez.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Tonight: Batting #6Confirmed0 of 5 HRs · 0%

🐾 Hottest from spot #4 — 2 of 5 career HRs (40%).

🐾

Hot spots:#4#2#3#5

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast. 🐾 jade outline = tonight's spot.

Season Statcast

Barrel %

7.5

Pull % (HRs)

100

xBA

.250

Brl / PA %

6.18

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

109.0

Avg EV on HRs

106.3

Avg HR Distance (ft)

405

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

0/6

Crushed (105+ mph)

4/6

Avg LA on HRs

31.3°

Brl / PA %

6.18

Sampled across 6 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Parker Messick · top 3 pitches tonight

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

🐾 HIGH EXPLOIT

FF4-Seam Fastball
Use%
31
xwOBA
.453
Whiff%
18.3
HH%
32.1
BRL%
13.8
Pull%
41
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.
CHChangeup
Use%
25
xwOBA
.253
Whiff%
50.0
HH%
33.3
BRL%
11.1
Pull%
89
SISinker
Use%
17
xwOBA
.405
Whiff%
6.7
HH%
43.8
BRL%
5.3
Pull%
53
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.

Parker Messick arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
FF4-Seam Fastball⚡ PUT-AWAY	31.3	8.2	36.2	43	.230	25.0
CHChangeup	24.7	7.7	23.9	60	.234	24.8
SISinker	16.9	5.0	49.1	62	.415	7.1
CUCurveball	11.1	4.2	9.5	63	.252	—

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball⚡ PUT-AWAY31% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	11.1	38.9	44	.214	25.8	29
vs RHB	7.3	41.8	42	.236	22.8	91

CHChangeup25% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	0.0	60.0	80	.256	29.4	15
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	8.5	25.5	57	.231	25.5	87

SISinker17% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	0.0	28.0	60	.328	8.3	30
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	8.6	60.0	63	.475	0.0	37

CUCurveball11% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	0.0	11.1	67	.159	0.0	10
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	6.7	26.7	60	.312	0.0	16

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 25.0% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #6 (xwOBA .456). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (MIL)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: American Family Field (344/400/345 ft) · elev 635ft

6 HRs this season

vs RHP 3vs LHP 3

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

FF🐾4-Seam Fastball3

CHChangeup1

CUCurveball1

FCCutter1

Bats R · Pull side: LF

HR Drought — when he's due

HR Drought

games since last HR

PAs since last HR

Homers about every 4.0 games · 10 PA (2 HR in 8 G)

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
vs RHP88PA	.250	.431	.761	8.1%	5
vs LHP48PA	.230	.538	.976	12.1%	2

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Home62PA	.274	.549	.952	10.9%	4
Away74PA	.217	.400	.738	8.2%	3

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Day68PA	.266	.533	.886	9.3%	4
Night68PA	.216	.392	.774	9.8%	3

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty36PA	.241	.448	.809	2
Runners On67PA	.278	.500	.873	4
RISP38PA	.484	.774	1.195	4

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs49PA	.219	.512	.920	2
1 Out42PA	—	.061	.323	0
2 Outs45PA	.487	.784	1.206	5

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. Home · Day · Thu.