·Elite Statcast power (barrel%/EV/bat speed above league)
▸Model inputs
Base HR/PA0.0340 · blended_3sys
TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00
Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant
vs SP (HR/9)-2% (×0.98) · blended_proj
Park+7% (×1.07)
Wind0% (×1.00)
Temp0% (×1.00)
Lineup0% (×1.00)
Contact (batted-ball)-1% (×0.99)
Statcast (barrel/EV)+10% (×1.10)
Pitch match0% (×1.00)
SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)
SP contact (batted-ball)+8% (×1.08)
SP Statcast allowed+1% (×1.01)
Discipline+0% (×1.00)
HR Odds History
Price range · 14 games · 1 HR
Now
+465
High
+1145
Low
+465
Med
+650
Avg
+692
🐾+465
Low +465🐾 HR money zoneHigh +1145
🐾 PRIME+ SPOTspot score 100
Even shorter than his HR range — likelier than when he's gone yard 1× priced here.
⚠ Thin sample (1 HR game) — a hint, not a lock.
Recent — tap a game
🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.
▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)
Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)
2026-06-12 · THE BAT X
Proj HR (RoS)
12.6
Proj PA
336
HR / PA
.037
ISO
.171
wOBA
.326
wRC+
105
2026 Contact Profile
🐾 Tonight: Home2026-06-12 · FG
Season
HR/FB
9.5
Hard%
29.5
FB%
40.4
Pull%
46.4
Soft%
15.8
GB%
39.3
🐾vs LHP
HR/FB
3.8
Hard%
25.8
FB%
39.4
Pull%
47.0
Soft%
15.2
GB%
39.4
vs RHP
HR/FB
12.5
Hard%
31.6
FB%
41.0
Pull%
46.2
Soft%
16.2
GB%
39.3
🐾Home
HR/FB
9.1
Hard%
30.9
FB%
45.4
Pull%
41.2
Soft%
15.5
GB%
34.0
Away
HR/FB
10.0
Hard%
27.9
FB%
34.9
Pull%
52.3
Soft%
16.3
GB%
45.3
🐾 = split that matches tonight (vs LHP, Home). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).
Why this pick
5.0 🐾
ELITE BIG DAWG ENERGY
🏟Target Field mild HR boost (+7)
🔥Crushes 1/3 of SP's top pitches (SL)
📍Historical sweet spot in the order: #3 (58% of career HRs)
📈Hot streak: .796 OPS over last 15 days
·High barrels/PA (6.7%)
Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.
Last 15 Days
🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup
.288↑ vs season .23454 PA · 15d
OPS
.796
ISO
.193
HR
2
RBI
10
K-BB
15-1
Game Log · Last 8
Date
Opp
AB
H
HR
RBI
BB
K
SLG
06-12
vs STL
4
1
0
1
0
1
.500
06-11
@ DET
3
1
0
0
0
1
.333
06-10
@ DET
5
1
0
1
0
0
.200
06-09
@ DET
5
2
1
1
0
1
1.000
💣 375ft · 104.2 EV · 4-Seamer
06-07
vs KC
4
1
1
3
0
2
1.000
💣 442ft · 111.6 EV · Cutter
06-06
vs KC
4
0
0
0
0
2
—
06-05
vs KC
4
1
0
1
0
1
.500
06-04
vs KC
1
0
0
0
0
0
—
vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4
🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB. Metrics are this hitter's vs LHP split.
Pitch
ISO
xwOBA
BRL%
HH%
Pull%
Whiff%
🐾FF4-Seam FastballvL29PA
.154
.287
0.0
30.0
50
19.3
🐾SLSlidervL8PA
—
.158
0.0
33.3
50
16.7
🐾CUCurveballvL10PA
—
.263
0.0
11.1
67
31.2
🐾CHChangeupvL24PA
.091
.310
11.8
29.4
94
22.8
Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP
FF4-Seam Fastball
Split
ISO
xwOBA
BRL%
HH%
Pull%
Whiff%
wRC+
PA
vs LHPTONIGHT
.154
.287
0.0
30.0
50
19.3
72
29
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHES
.160
.355
7.1
52.4
52
19.1
83
59
SLSlider
Split
ISO
xwOBA
BRL%
HH%
Pull%
Whiff%
wRC+
PA
vs LHPTONIGHT
—
.158
0.0
33.3
50
16.7
72
8
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHES
.350
.489
23.5
47.1
65
20.5
83
23
CUCurveball
Split
ISO
xwOBA
BRL%
HH%
Pull%
Whiff%
wRC+
PA
vs LHPTONIGHT
—
.263
0.0
11.1
67
31.2
72
10
vs RHP
—
.223
16.7
66.7
67
53.3
83
14
CHChangeup
Split
ISO
xwOBA
BRL%
HH%
Pull%
Whiff%
wRC+
PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHESTONIGHT
.091
.310
11.8
29.4
94
22.8
72
24
vs RHP
.138
.247
5.3
26.3
84
23.6
83
31
Ballpark — Tonight's Venue
vs LHB
107
vs RHB
94
🐾vs SHB
100
Target Field. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Bell.
HR by Lineup Spot
🐾 Hottest from spot #3 — 15 of 26 career HRs (58%).
1
·
2
2
·
15
3
🐾
6
4
·
3
5
·
6
·
7
·
8
·
9
·
Hot spots:#3
Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast.
Season Statcast
ISO
.134
Barrel %
9.8
Hard Hit %
41.0
xwOBA
.303
xBA
.234
Brl / PA %
6.70
Max EV (mph)
112.3
Exit Velocity Profile
Max EV (mph)
112.3
Avg EV on HRs
106.3
Avg HR Distance (ft)
397
HRs in sample
5
No-doubters (110+ mph)
1/5
Crushed (105+ mph)
2/5
Avg LA on HRs
29.4°
Brl / PA %
6.70
Sampled across 5 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.
Tonight's Pitch Matchup
Matthew Liberatore · top 3 pitches tonightvs LHP split
🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾
Tough matchup
FF4-Seam Fastballvs LHP
Use%
33
xwOBA
.287
Whiff%
19.3
HH%
30.0
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
50
SLSlidervs LHP
Use%
22
xwOBA
.158
Whiff%
16.7
HH%
33.3
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
50
CUCurveballvs LHP
Use%
16
xwOBA
.263
Whiff%
31.2
HH%
11.1
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
67
⚠ Struggles against this pitch in 10 PA this season.
Career vs Matthew Liberatore (LHP)
🐾 Tonight's matchup
—AVG · small sample (3 PA)
OPS
—
HR
0
RBI
0
K-BB
0-0
Matthew Liberatore (LHP) arsenal (Top 3)
Pitch
Use%
BRL%-A
HH%-A
Pull%
xwOBA
Put%
FF4-Seam Fastball
33.1
10.7
47.9
48
.438
9.5
SLSlider⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT
22.3
14.9
43.5
62
.293
28.0
CUCurveball
15.8
7.7
33.3
54
.208
19.2
CHChangeup
15.0
4.8
32.5
67
.386
10.5
Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB
FF4-Seam Fastball33% use
Split
BRL%-A
HH%-A
Pull%
xwOBA
Put%
PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT
16.7
58.3
42
.613
13.6
19
vs RHB
9.5
47.6
49
.405
9.1
82
SLSlider⚡ PUT-AWAY22% use
Split
BRL%-A
HH%-A
Pull%
xwOBA
Put%
PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT
20.0
48.0
60
.332
33.3
40
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY
9.1
40.9
64
.261
26.0
46
CUCurveball16% use
Split
BRL%-A
HH%-A
Pull%
xwOBA
Put%
PA
vs LHB
no sample
vs RHB
9.1
36.4
55
.200
21.4
28
CHChangeup15% use
Split
BRL%-A
HH%-A
Pull%
xwOBA
Put%
PA
vs LHB
no sample
vs RHB
4.8
31.0
67
.386
15.0
49
🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 28.0% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.
Strike Zone Heatmap
🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal
Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches
Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.
🐾 Hottest zone: #8 (xwOBA .435). Hover any cell for detail.
Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.
Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)
🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (MIN)
Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.
Overlay: Target Field (339/411/328 ft) · elev 815ft
5 HRs this season
vs RHP 4vs LHP 1
Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)
SL🐾Slider2
FF🐾4-Seam Fastball2
CHChangeup1
Bats S · Switch hitter
Splits — Today's Matchup
Handedness
Split
ISO
SLG
OPS
BRL%
HR
vs RHP177PA
.161
.383
.665
11.4%
6
🐾vs LHP94PA
.092
.333
.620
5.7%
1
Location
Split
ISO
SLG
OPS
BRL%
HR
🐾Home138PA
.152
.412
.709
11.9%
4
Away133PA
.119
.314
.585
6.5%
3
Time
Split
ISO
SLG
OPS
BRL%
HR
🐾Day121PA
.147
.367
.648
11.1%
3
Night150PA
.128
.364
.651
8.0%
4
Base State
Split
ISO
SLG
OPS
HR
Bases Empty93PA
.112
.258
.441
3
Runners On126PA
.158
.430
.755
3
RISP77PA
.257
.586
.950
3
Outs
Split
ISO
SLG
OPS
HR
0 Outs85PA
.203
.500
.876
3
1 Out87PA
.110
.390
.700
2
2 Outs99PA
.108
.237
.419
2
Count
Split
ISO
SLG
OPS
HR
0-027PA
.186
.519
.852
1
1-018PA
.555
.944
1.333
3
0-125PA
.080
.320
.560
0
2-09PA
—
.500
1.056
0
0-221PA
.048
.238
.429
0
3-06PA
—
—
.833
0
1-231PA
.138
.345
.603
1
2-256PA
—
.091
.180
0
3-236PA
.071
.250
.611
0
🐾 = the split that matches tonight. vs LHP · Home · Day · Sat.
