Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

16.2%

+517

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Jack Leiter (1.42 HR/9) · park 94

Batting #5Confirmed lineup

2+ RBI

12.9%

+674

RBI 1+

36.1%

+177

Hits 1+

62.8%

-169

Hits 2+

20.6%

+385

Switch Hitter — Batting Side

As LHB(vs RHP)

87wRC+

🐾As RHB(vs LHP)

89wRC+

🐾 Stronger from the RIGHT side (higher season wRC+).

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

15.9%

95% CI · 15.5–16.3%

+528

Fair odds

1st AB

4.1%

Through AB2

8.4%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park-6%
Temp+5%
vs SP+1%
Contact+5%
SP Contact+5%
Statcast+11%
SP Statcast+2%

🎯 Early-AB cues

·93F game
·Elite Statcast power (barrel%/EV/bat speed above league)

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0350 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)+1% (×1.01) · blended_proj

Park-6% (×0.94)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp+5% (×1.05)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)+5% (×1.05)

Statcast (barrel/EV)+11% (×1.11)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)+5% (×1.05)

SP Statcast allowed+2% (×1.02)

Discipline-1% (×0.99)

HR Odds History

Price range · 18 games

Now

+690

High

+910

Low

+335

Med

+448

Avg

+528

+690

Low +335High +910

BUILDING HISTORY

No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.

HR Winners — odds that cashed

No priced HR games in the tracked window yet.

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-07-16 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

9.6

Proj PA

225

HR / PA

.042

ISO

.189

wOBA

.334

wRC+

112

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Away2026-07-16 · FG

Season

HR/FB

11.9

Hard%

34.1

FB%

41.3

Pull%

42.4

Soft%

14.8

GB%

39.0

vs LHP

HR/FB

8.3

Hard%

31.4

FB%

41.9

Pull%

40.7

Soft%

11.6

GB%

37.2

vs RHP

HR/FB

13.7

Hard%

35.4

FB%

41.0

Pull%

43.3

Soft%

16.3

GB%

39.9

Home

HR/FB

6.5

Hard%

34.3

FB%

44.3

Pull%

38.6

Soft%

15.7

GB%

35.0

🐾Away

HR/FB

19.1

Hard%

33.9

FB%

37.9

Pull%

46.8

Soft%

13.7

GB%

43.5

🐾 = split that matches tonight (Away). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

5.0 🐾

ELITE BIG DAWG ENERGY

Crushes 1/3 of SP's top pitches (SL)
Historical sweet spot in the order: #3 (58% of career HRs)
Hot streak: .866 OPS over last 15 days
94°F — ball flies in warm air
High barrels/PA (7.0%)
Pitcher high contact-quality allowed (10.0% brl)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.298↑ vs season .24548 PA · 15d

OPS

.866

ISO

.255

RBI

K-BB

12-1

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	HR	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-16	@ TEX	4	2	0	2	1	0	.750
06-15	@ TEX	4	2	1	3	0	1	1.250
💣 376ft · 100.0 EV · Curveball
06-14	vs STL	4	2	0	0	0	1	.500
06-13	vs STL	1	0	0	1	0	0	—
06-12	vs STL	4	1	0	1	0	1	.500
06-11	@ DET	3	1	0	0	0	1	.333
06-10	@ DET	5	1	0	1	0	0	.200
06-09	@ DET	5	2	1	1	0	1	1.000
💣 375ft · 104.2 EV · 4-Seamer

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾FF4-Seam Fastball88PA	.154	.328	4.6	45.3	49	23.1
🐾SLSlider28PA	.280	.406	17.4	45.5	61	21.5
🐾CHChangeup58PA	.132	.298	10.0	30.8	90	22.7
🐾FCCutter24PA	.218	.416	11.5	50.0	65	17.0

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	.148	.310	0.0	33.3	48	19.4	89	30
vs RHP	.151	.338	6.8	50.0	50	19.7	87	62

SLSlider

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	—	.158	0.0	33.3	50	16.7	89	8
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHES	.350	.489	23.5	47.1	65	18.4	87	23

CHChangeup

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	.087	.313	11.8	29.4	94	24.1	89	26
vs RHP	.152	.287	8.7	30.4	87	22.0	87	35

FCCutter

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	—	.187	0.0	14.3	86	20.0	89	9
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHES	.250	.510	15.8	47.4	58	12.1	87	21

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

vs LHB

vs RHB

🐾vs SHB

Globe Life Field. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Bell.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Tonight: Batting #5Confirmed3 of 26 HRs · 12%

🐾 Hottest from spot #3 — 15 of 26 career HRs (58%).

🐾

Hot spots:#3

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast. 🐾 jade outline = tonight's spot.

Season Statcast

ISO

.145

Barrel %

10.2

Hard Hit %

42.1

xwOBA

.312

xBA

.245

Brl / PA %

7.00

Max EV (mph)

112.3

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

112.3

Avg EV on HRs

106.3

Avg HR Distance (ft)

397

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

1/5

Crushed (105+ mph)

2/5

Avg LA on HRs

29.4°

Brl / PA %

7.00

Sampled across 5 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Jack Leiter · top 3 pitches tonight

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

🐾 LEAN EXPLOIT

FF4-Seam Fastball
Use%
39
xwOBA
.328
Whiff%
23.1
HH%
45.3
BRL%
4.6
Pull%
49
SLSlider
Use%
18
xwOBA
.406
Whiff%
21.5
HH%
45.5
BRL%
17.4
Pull%
61
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.
CHChangeup
Use%
18
xwOBA
.298
Whiff%
22.7
HH%
30.8
BRL%
10.0
Pull%
90

Jack Leiter arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
FF4-Seam Fastball	38.5	12.7	42.1	52	.319	16.9
SLSlider	18.2	13.5	51.4	62	.354	26.0
CHChangeup	17.5	11.8	34.7	69	.317	18.4
FCCutter⚡ PUT-AWAY	10.1	3.7	34.6	52	.359	34.8

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball39% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	16.7	41.7	48	.338	21.1	72
vs RHB	6.5	48.4	58	.291	15.3	47

SLSlider18% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	19.0	52.4	67	.368	23.7	34
vs RHB	6.2	50.0	56	.317	30.2	33

CHChangeup18% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	11.4	37.1	74	.383	12.1	49
vs RHB	12.5	37.5	56	.205	26.1	28

FCCutter⚡ PUT-AWAY10% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	5.0	35.0	65	.399	35.3	29
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	0.0	28.6	14	.259	33.3	11

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 34.8% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #8 (xwOBA .435). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (TEX)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Globe Life Field (329/407/326 ft) · elev 591ft

5 HRs this season

vs RHP 4vs LHP 1

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

SL🐾Slider2

FF🐾4-Seam Fastball2

CHChangeup1

Bats S · Switch hitter

HR Drought — when he's due

HR Drought

games since last HR

PAs since last HR

Homers about every 4.0 games · 16 PA (2 HR in 8 G)

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
vs RHP187PA	.157	.390	.679	11.1%	6
vs LHP98PA	.122	.378	.684	6.9%	2

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Home143PA	.147	.412	.713	12.0%	4
🐾Away142PA	.143	.357	.646	7.1%	4

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Day126PA	.140	.368	.654	10.6%	3
Night159PA	.149	.399	.701	9.0%	5

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty99PA	.106	.266	.468	3
Runners On133PA	.182	.463	.794	4
RISP84PA	.285	.623	.992	4

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs86PA	.200	.507	.891	3
1 Out96PA	.111	.389	.702	2
2 Outs103PA	.134	.289	.493	3

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. Away · Day · Thu.