Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Showing tomorrow's slate. Projections and lineups will refine as the slate locks in.

Home Run

12.4%

+708

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Nick Martinez (RHP) (0.70 HR/9) · park 119

2+ RBI

10.8%

+826

RBI 1+

34.2%

+193

Hits 1+

65.8%

-193

Hits 2+

23.7%

+321

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

15.6%

95% CI · 15.2–16.0%

+542

Fair odds

1st AB

3.9%

Through AB2

7.3%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park+19%
vs SP-16%
Contact+10%
SP Contact-6%
Statcast+3%
SP Statcast-4%
Discipline+2%

🎯 Early-AB cuesvs Nick Martinez (RHP)

·SP suppresses HRs (blended_proj)
·HR-friendly park (factor 119)
·Elite batted-ball profile (home) — Pull/Hard/FB/HR-FB above league

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0365 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)-16% (×0.84) · blended_proj

Park+19% (×1.19)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp0% (×1.00)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)+10% (×1.10)

Statcast (barrel/EV)+3% (×1.03)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)-6% (×0.94)

SP Statcast allowed-4% (×0.96)

Discipline+2% (×1.02)

HR Odds History

Price range · 6 games

Now

+1000

High

+585

Low

+475

Med

+558

Avg

+539

+1000

Low +475High +585

BUILDING HISTORY

No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.

HR Winners — odds that cashed

No priced HR games in the tracked window yet.

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-06-14 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

13.6

Proj PA

366

HR / PA

.037

ISO

.191

wOBA

.354

wRC+

126

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Home2026-06-14 · FG

Season

HR/FB

9.4

Hard%

37.9

FB%

51.6

Pull%

37.9

Soft%

7.3

GB%

28.2

vs LHP

HR/FB

10.0

Hard%

42.9

FB%

57.1

Pull%

40.0

Soft%

5.7

GB%

17.1

🐾vs RHP

HR/FB

9.1

Hard%

36.0

FB%

49.4

Pull%

37.1

Soft%

7.9

GB%

32.6

🐾Home

HR/FB

13.8

Hard%

29.6

FB%

53.7

Pull%

35.2

Soft%

9.3

GB%

25.9

Away

HR/FB

5.7

Hard%

44.3

FB%

50.0

Pull%

40.0

Soft%

5.7

GB%

30.0

🐾 = split that matches tonight (vs RHP, Home). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

3.0 🐾

LEAN

UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium is a hitter's haven (+19 for RHB)
Nick Martinez stingy: only 0.70 HR/9
Historical sweet spot in the order: #2 (77% of career HRs)
Already has 1 HR / 2 RBI off this SP in 31 PA
Park boost (119)
High barrels/PA (6.4%)
Pitcher suppresses HR (0.70 HR/9)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.188↓ vs season .26354 PA · 15d

OPS

.486

ISO

.020

RBI

K-BB

7-6

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	BB	K	SLG
06-13	@ CHW	5	3	0	2	.600
06-12	@ CHW	3	0	0	1	—
06-11	@ PIT	5	1	1	0	.200
06-10	@ PIT	4	0	0	0	—
06-09	@ PIT	6	2	0	1	.500
06-06	vs LAA	3	1	1	0	.333
06-05	vs LAA	2	0	1	0	—
06-04	@ ARI	4	0	0	0	—

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB. Metrics are this hitter's vs RHP split.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾SISinkervR35PA	.104	.384	3.7	40.7	56	4.3
🐾CHChangeupvR6PA	.600	.389	33.3	33.3	100	44.4
🐾FCCuttervR16PA	.200	.316	14.3	50.0	64	4.5
🐾FF4-Seam FastballvR32PA	.276	.315	14.8	44.4	48	2.1

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

SISinker

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	—	.258	20.0	20.0	20	0.0	82	6
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHESTONIGHT	.104	.384	3.7	40.7	56	4.3	65	35

CHChangeup

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	—	.362	0.0	33.3	50	18.5	82	14
vs RHPTONIGHT	.600	.389	33.3	33.3	100	44.4	65	6

FCCutter

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHPTONIGHT	.200	.316	14.3	50.0	64	4.5	65	16

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES	.467	.380	15.4	30.8	46	8.3	82	17
vs RHPTONIGHT	.276	.315	14.8	44.4	48	2.1	65	32

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

vs LHB

120

🐾vs RHB

119

vs SHB

119

UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Betts.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Hottest from spot #2 — 33 of 43 career HRs (77%).

🐾

Hot spots:#2

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast.

Season Statcast

ISO

.154

Barrel %

8.1

Hard Hit %

37.1

Pull % (HRs)

xwOBA

.325

xBA

.263

Brl / PA %

6.40

Max EV (mph)

108.1

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

104.1

Avg EV on HRs

101.4

Avg HR Distance (ft)

392

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

0/5

Crushed (105+ mph)

0/5

Avg LA on HRs

27.6°

Brl / PA %

6.40

Sampled across 5 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Nick Martinez · top 3 pitches tonightvs RHP split

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

🐾 HIGH EXPLOIT

SISinkervs RHP
Use%
31
xwOBA
.384
Whiff%
4.3
HH%
40.7
BRL%
3.7
Pull%
56
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.
CHChangeupvs RHP
Use%
28
xwOBA
.389
Whiff%
44.4
HH%
33.3
BRL%
33.3
Pull%
100
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.
FCCuttervs RHP
Use%
20
xwOBA
.316
Whiff%
4.5
HH%
50.0
BRL%
14.3
Pull%
64

Career vs Nick Martinez (RHP)

🐾 Tonight's matchup

.207AVG · meaningful (31 PA)

OPS

.568

RBI

K-BB

2-2

Nick Martinez (RHP) arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
SISinker⚡ PUT-AWAY	31.4	6.5	40.7	59	.337	21.9
CHChangeup	28.0	1.4	15.0	61	.204	19.6
FCCutter	19.5	8.1	25.4	61	.364	19.0
FF4-Seam Fastball	10.5	10.8	57.1	60	.440	9.1

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

SISinker⚡ PUT-AWAY31% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	9.1	63.6	52	.299	25.0	47
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	5.0	31.7	63	.366	15.8	68

CHChangeup28% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	1.8	19.6	61	.221	18.8	72
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	0.0	6.2	63	.157	16.4	27

FCCutter20% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	6.7	22.2	67	.340	20.0	50
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	10.3	37.9	52	.402	12.5	31

FF4-Seam Fastball11% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	13.0	52.2	74	.410	12.5	27
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	7.1	50.0	36	.504	4.2	17

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 21.9% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #5 (xwOBA .412). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (LAD)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Dodger Stadium (330/395/330 ft) · elev 512ft

5 HRs this season

vs RHP 4vs LHP 1

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

FF🐾4-Seam Fastball2

FCCutter1

SISinker1

CHChangeup1

Bats R · Pull side: LF

HR Drought — when he's due

HR Drought

games since last HR

PAs since last HR

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾vs RHP112PA	.136	.330	.589	8.2%	4
vs LHP45PA	.200	.400	.667	10.3%	2

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Home70PA	.225	.419	.690	6.5%	4
Away87PA	.098	.296	.549	10.7%	2

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Day22PA	.158	.474	.883	9.1%	1
🐾Night135PA	.154	.331	.568	8.7%	5

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty41PA	.228	.514	.904	2
Runners On81PA	.176	.365	.612	4
RISP42PA	.184	.342	.556	2

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs61PA	.136	.322	.535	2
1 Out48PA	.200	.425	.758	2
2 Outs48PA	.136	.318	.568	2

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. vs RHP · Home · Night · Mon.