Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

13.4%

+645

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Jack Leiter (1.42 HR/9) · park 94

Batting #7Confirmed lineup

2+ RBI

11.4%

+778

RBI 1+

34.7%

+188

Hits 1+

63.8%

-177

Hits 2+

21.7%

+362

Switch Hitter — Batting Side

As LHB(vs RHP)

70wRC+

🐾As RHB(vs LHP)

94wRC+

🐾 Stronger from the RIGHT side (higher season wRC+).

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

7.9%

95% CI · 7.6–8.2%

+1170

Fair odds

1st AB

2.0%

Through AB2

4.1%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park-6%
Temp+5%
vs SP+1%
Contact-18%
SP Contact+5%
Statcast-1%
SP Statcast+2%

🎯 Early-AB cues

·93F game
·Soft contact profile (away) — below league

⚠ Thin blended HR rate

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0248 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)+1% (×1.01) · blended_proj

Park-6% (×0.94)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp+5% (×1.05)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)-18% (×0.82)

Statcast (barrel/EV)-1% (×0.99)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)+5% (×1.05)

SP Statcast allowed+2% (×1.02)

Discipline-0% (×1.00)

HR Odds History

Price range · 18 games

Now

+1145

High

+1115

Low

+415

Med

+592

Avg

+701

+1145

Low +415High +1115

BUILDING HISTORY

No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.

HR Winners — odds that cashed

No priced HR games in the tracked window yet.

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-07-16 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

4.4

Proj PA

137

HR / PA

.032

ISO

.151

wOBA

.320

wRC+

103

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Away2026-07-16 · FG

Season

HR/FB

10.9

Hard%

33.0

FB%

35.8

Pull%

40.2

Soft%

10.6

GB%

44.1

vs LHP

HR/FB

11.1

Hard%

30.4

FB%

39.1

Pull%

45.7

Soft%

8.7

GB%

32.6

vs RHP

HR/FB

10.9

Hard%

33.8

FB%

34.6

Pull%

38.3

Soft%

11.3

GB%

48.1

Home

HR/FB

12.5

Hard%

35.1

FB%

41.2

Pull%

39.2

Soft%

10.3

GB%

40.2

🐾Away

HR/FB

8.3

Hard%

30.5

FB%

29.3

Pull%

41.5

Soft%

11.0

GB%

48.8

🐾 = split that matches tonight (Away). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

4.0 🐾

STRONG PLAY

Historical sweet spot in the order: #6 (43% of career HRs)
Hot streak: 1.125 OPS over last 15 days
94°F — ball flies in warm air
High barrels/PA (4.6%)
Pitcher high contact-quality allowed (10.0% brl)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.346↑ vs season .25130 PA · 15d

OPS

1.125

ISO

.346

RBI

K-BB

4-3

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	HR	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-14	vs STL	3	1	1	2	1	0	1.333
💣 411ft · 103.6 EV · Cutter
06-13	vs STL	1	0	0	0	0	0	—
06-12	vs STL	4	1	0	0	0	1	.500
06-11	@ DET	2	1	0	0	1	0	.500
06-09	@ DET	5	0	0	0	0	1	—
06-07	vs KC	1	1	0	1	0	0	1.000
06-06	vs KC	2	1	0	0	1	1	1.000
06-04	vs KC	4	3	1	2	0	0	1.750
💣 364ft · 102.2 EV · 4-Seamer

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾FF4-Seam Fastball69PA	.115	.311	3.8	36.7	56	17.0
🐾SLSlider22PA	.053	.352	7.1	35.7	64	41.0
🐾CHChangeup30PA	.080	.297	10.0	36.8	85	35.6
🐾FCCutter23PA	.500	.540	11.8	26.7	59	13.3

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	—	.312	0.0	0.0	60	28.2	94	19
vs RHP	.143	.311	4.8	42.9	55	12.0	70	55

SLSlider

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	—	.304	0.0	0.0	60	33.3	94	8
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHES	.077	.385	11.1	55.6	67	50.0	70	15

CHChangeup

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	.066	.172	12.5	37.5	75	27.3	94	15
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHES	.077	.409	8.3	33.3	92	37.0	70	18

FCCutter

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES	.429	.740	14.3	42.9	86	8.3	94	14
vs RHP	.445	.293	10.0	10.0	40	12.5	70	11

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

vs LHB

vs RHB

🐾vs SHB

Globe Life Field. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Caratini.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Tonight: Batting #7Confirmed0 of 7 HRs · 0%

🐾 Hottest from spot #6 — 3 of 7 career HRs (43%).

🐾

Hot spots:#6#5

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast. 🐾 jade outline = tonight's spot.

Season Statcast

ISO

.104

Barrel %

6.8

Hard Hit %

39.4

xwOBA

.339

xBA

.251

Brl / PA %

4.60

Max EV (mph)

107.2

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

106.0

Avg EV on HRs

102.3

Avg HR Distance (ft)

390

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

0/3

Crushed (105+ mph)

1/3

Avg LA on HRs

30.3°

Brl / PA %

4.60

Sampled across 3 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Jack Leiter · top 3 pitches tonight

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Neutral matchup

FF4-Seam Fastball
Use%
39
xwOBA
.311
Whiff%
17.0
HH%
36.7
BRL%
3.8
Pull%
56
SLSlider
Use%
18
xwOBA
.352
Whiff%
41.0
HH%
35.7
BRL%
7.1
Pull%
64
CHChangeup
Use%
18
xwOBA
.297
Whiff%
35.6
HH%
36.8
BRL%
10.0
Pull%
85

Career vs Jack Leiter

🐾 Tonight's matchup

.200AVG · small sample (6 PA)

OPS

1.133

RBI

K-BB

0-1

Jack Leiter arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
FF4-Seam Fastball	38.5	12.7	42.1	52	.319	16.9
SLSlider	18.2	13.5	51.4	62	.354	26.0
CHChangeup	17.5	11.8	34.7	69	.317	18.4
FCCutter⚡ PUT-AWAY	10.1	3.7	34.6	52	.359	34.8

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball39% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	16.7	41.7	48	.338	21.1	72
vs RHB	6.5	48.4	58	.291	15.3	47

SLSlider18% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	19.0	52.4	67	.368	23.7	34
vs RHB	6.2	50.0	56	.317	30.2	33

CHChangeup18% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	11.4	37.1	74	.383	12.1	49
vs RHB	12.5	37.5	56	.205	26.1	28

FCCutter⚡ PUT-AWAY10% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	5.0	35.0	65	.399	35.3	29
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	0.0	28.6	14	.259	33.3	11

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 34.8% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #4 (xwOBA .430). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (TEX)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Globe Life Field (329/407/326 ft) · elev 591ft

3 HRs this season

vs RHP 2vs LHP 1

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

SISinker1

STSweeper1

FCCutter1

Bats S · Switch hitter

HR Drought — when he's due

HR Drought

games since last HR

PAs since last HR

Homers about every 4.0 games · 13 PA (2 HR in 8 G)

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
vs RHP130PA	.117	.342	.627	6.9%	3
vs LHP66PA	.077	.269	.633	10.0%	1

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Home103PA	.189	.471	.850	10.4%	4
🐾Away93PA	.013	.154	.391	4.7%	0

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Day96PA	.103	.359	.703	9.1%	2
Night100PA	.106	.282	.562	6.2%	2

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty56PA	.155	.311	.632	2
Runners On97PA	.127	.380	.700	2
RISP58PA	.089	.311	.587	1

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs73PA	.123	.369	.670	2
1 Out66PA	.111	.296	.554	1
2 Outs57PA	.068	.273	.659	1

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. Away · Day · Thu.