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Victor CaratiniSHB
MIN
📅 Tomorrow12:10 PM MT · Target Field
Showing tomorrow's slate. Projections and lineups will refine as the slate locks in.
Home Run
14.8%
+576
🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾
Big Dawg Energy
vs Matthew Liberatore (LHP) (1.50 HR/9) · park 107
2+ RBI
12.1%
+724
RBI 1+
35.4%
+183
Hits 1+
63.5%
-174
Hits 2+
21.3%
+369
Switch Hitter — Batting Side
As LHB(vs RHP)
63wRC+
🐾As RHB(vs LHP)TONIGHT
95wRC+

🐾 Stronger from the RIGHT side (higher season wRC+). Tonight he hits RIGHT-handed vs the LHP — his strong side.

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo
30k iter
10.3%
95% CI · 9.9–10.6%
+873
Fair odds
1st AB
2.7%
Through AB2
5.2%
Best window
Early
What shifted the projection
  • Park+7%
  • vs SP-2%
  • Contact+2%
  • SP Contact+8%
  • Statcast-3%
  • SP Statcast+1%
🎯 Early-AB cuesvs Matthew Liberatore (LHP)
  • ·SP allows hard, pulled fly balls (HR-prone contact)
⚠ Thin blended HR rate
▸Model inputs
Base HR/PA0.0235 · blended_3sys
TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00
Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant
vs SP (HR/9)-2% (×0.98) · blended_proj
Park+7% (×1.07)
Wind0% (×1.00)
Temp0% (×1.00)
Lineup0% (×1.00)
Contact (batted-ball)+2% (×1.02)
Statcast (barrel/EV)-3% (×0.97)
Pitch match0% (×1.00)
SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)
SP contact (batted-ball)+8% (×1.08)
SP Statcast allowed+1% (×1.01)
Discipline+0% (×1.00)
HR Odds History
Price range · 11 games
Now
+575
High
+860
Low
+570
Med
+700
Avg
+698
+575
Low +570High +860
BUILDING HISTORY

No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.

Recent — tap a game

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)
Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)
2026-06-12 · THE BAT X
Proj HR (RoS)
7.0
Proj PA
259
HR / PA
.027
ISO
.134
wOBA
.314
wRC+
97
2026 Contact Profile
🐾 Tonight: Home2026-06-12 · FG
Season
HR/FB
7.3
Hard%
28.8
FB%
32.8
Pull%
39.2
Soft%
11.2
GB%
46.4
🐾vs LHP
HR/FB
7.7
Hard%
22.9
FB%
37.1
Pull%
42.9
Soft%
8.6
GB%
34.3
vs RHP
HR/FB
7.1
Hard%
31.1
FB%
31.1
Pull%
37.8
Soft%
12.2
GB%
51.1
🐾Home
HR/FB
12.0
Hard%
27.7
FB%
38.5
Pull%
36.9
Soft%
10.8
GB%
44.6
Away
HR/FB
0.0
Hard%
30.0
FB%
26.7
Pull%
41.7
Soft%
11.7
GB%
48.3

🐾 = split that matches tonight (vs LHP, Home). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick
4.0 🐾
STRONG PLAY
  • Target Field mild HR boost (+7)
  • Historical sweet spot in the order: #6 (43% of career HRs)
  • Hot streak: .966 OPS over last 15 days
  • High barrels/PA (4.3%)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days
🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup
.333↑ vs season .24938 PA · 15d
OPS
.966
ISO
.212
HR
1
RBI
5
K-BB
7-4
Game Log · Last 8
DateOppABHHRRBIBBKSLG
06-12vs STL410001.500
06-11@ DET210010.500
06-09@ DET500001—
06-07vs KC1101001.000
06-06vs KC2100111.000
06-04vs KC4312001.750
💣 364ft · 102.2 EV · 4-Seamer
06-03vs CHW410001.250
06-01vs CHW410101.250
vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB. Metrics are this hitter's vs LHP split.

PitchISOxwOBABRL%HH%Pull%Whiff%
🐾FFvL19PA—.3120.0—6028.2
🐾SLvL8PA—.3040.0—6033.3
🐾CU——————
🐾CHvL15PA.066.17212.537.57527.3
Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP
FF4-Seam Fastball
SplitISOxwOBABRL%HH%Pull%Whiff%wRC+PA
vs LHPTONIGHT—.3120.00.06028.29519
vs RHP.136.3245.342.15310.46350
SLSlider
SplitISOxwOBABRL%HH%Pull%Whiff%wRC+PA
vs LHPTONIGHT—.3040.00.06033.3958
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHES.077.38511.155.66747.66315
CHChangeup
SplitISOxwOBABRL%HH%Pull%Whiff%wRC+PA
vs LHPTONIGHT.066.17212.537.57527.39515
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHES.084.3749.136.49140.06316
Ballpark — Tonight's Venue
vs LHB
107
vs RHB
94
🐾vs SHB
100

Target Field. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Caratini.

HR by Lineup Spot
🐾 Hottest from spot #6 — 3 of 7 career HRs (43%).
1
·
2
·
1
3
·
1
4
·
2
5
🐾
3
6
🐾
7
·
8
·
9
·
Hot spots:#6#5

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast.

Season Statcast
ISO
.084
Barrel %
6.4
Hard Hit %
39.2
xwOBA
.335
xBA
.249
Brl / PA %
4.30
Max EV (mph)
107.2
Exit Velocity Profile
Max EV (mph)
106.0
Avg EV on HRs
102.3
Avg HR Distance (ft)
390
HRs in sample
3
No-doubters (110+ mph)
0/3
Crushed (105+ mph)
1/3
Avg LA on HRs
30.3°
Brl / PA %
4.30

Sampled across 3 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup
Matthew Liberatore · top 3 pitches tonightvs LHP split
🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾
Neutral matchup
  • FF4-Seam Fastballvs LHP
    Use%
    33
    xwOBA
    .312
    Whiff%
    28.2
    HH%
    0.0
    BRL%
    0.0
    Pull%
    60
  • SLSlidervs LHP
    Use%
    22
    xwOBA
    .304
    Whiff%
    33.3
    HH%
    0.0
    BRL%
    0.0
    Pull%
    60
  • CUCurveball
    Use%
    16
    xwOBA
    —
    Whiff%
    —
    HH%
    —
    BRL%
    —
    Pull%
    —
Career vs Matthew Liberatore (LHP)
🐾 Tonight's matchup
.250AVG · small sample (5 PA)
OPS
.650
HR
0
RBI
0
K-BB
1-1
Matthew Liberatore (LHP) arsenal (Top 3)
PitchUse%BRL%-AHH%-APull%xwOBAPut%
FF33.110.747.948.4389.5
SL⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT22.314.943.562.29328.0
CU15.87.733.354.20819.2
CH15.04.832.567.38610.5
Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB
FF4-Seam Fastball33% use
SplitBRL%-AHH%-APull%xwOBAPut%PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT16.758.342.61313.619
vs RHB9.547.649.4059.182
SLSlider⚡ PUT-AWAY22% use
SplitBRL%-AHH%-APull%xwOBAPut%PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT20.048.060.33233.340
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY9.140.964.26126.046
CUCurveball16% use
SplitBRL%-AHH%-APull%xwOBAPut%PA
vs LHBno sample
vs RHB9.136.455.20021.428
CHChangeup15% use
SplitBRL%-AHH%-APull%xwOBAPut%PA
vs LHBno sample
vs RHB4.831.067.38615.049

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 28.0% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap
🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal
Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

.31.30.37.43🐾.31.30.31.32.34
🐾 Hottest zone: #4 (xwOBA .430). Hover any cell for detail.
Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.
Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)
🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (MIN)
CFLFRF339ft411ft328ftSISTFC
Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.
Overlay: Target Field (339/411/328 ft) · elev 815ft
3 HRs this season
vs RHP 2vs LHP 1
Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)
SISinker1
STSweeper1
FCCutter1
Bats S · Switch hitter
Splits — Today's Matchup
Handedness
SplitISOSLGOPSBRL%HR
vs RHP125PA.094.318.5986.4%2
🐾vs LHP66PA.077.269.63310.0%1
Location
SplitISOSLGOPSBRL%HR
🐾Home98PA.160.444.82210.0%3
Away93PA.013.154.3914.7%0
Time
SplitISOSLGOPSBRL%HR
🐾Day91PA.067.324.6658.2%1
Night100PA.106.282.5626.6%2
Base State
SplitISOSLGOPSHR
Bases Empty56PA.155.311.6322
Runners On93PA.092.342.6541
RISP56PA.093.326.6121
Outs
SplitISOSLGOPSHR
0 Outs71PA.079.317.6131
1 Out65PA.111.296.5421
2 Outs55PA.072.286.6861
Count
SplitISOSLGOPSHR
0-023PA.182.273.4031
1-010PA.300.7001.1001
0-122PA.223.6671.0761
2-05PA——.2000
0-222PA.045.227.4090
3-06PA——.8330
1-232PA—.129.2540
2-227PA.160.320.5421
3-218PA—.273.8280

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. vs LHP · Home · Day · Sat.