Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Showing tomorrow's slate. Projections and lineups will refine as the slate locks in.

Home Run

12.3%

+712

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Walbert Ureña (RHP) (0.65 HR/9) · park 106

Batting #2Projected lineup

2+ RBI

10.8%

+828

RBI 1+

34.2%

+193

Hits 1+

71.4%

-249

Hits 2+

30.2%

+232

Switch Hitter — Batting Side

As LHB(vs RHP)TONIGHT

95wRC+

🐾As RHB(vs LHP)

126wRC+

🐾 Stronger from the RIGHT side (higher season wRC+). Tonight he hits LEFT-handed vs the RHP — his weaker side.

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

18.9%

95% CI · 18.4–19.3%

+430

Fair odds

1st AB

4.7%

Through AB2

9.1%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park+6%
Temp+5%
vs SP-10%
Contact+11%
SP Contact-8%
Statcast+16%
SP Statcast-5%

🎯 Early-AB cuesvs Walbert Ureña (RHP)

·108F game
·Elite batted-ball profile (home) — Pull/Hard/FB/HR-FB above league
·Elite Statcast power (barrel%/EV/bat speed above league)

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0414 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)-10% (×0.90) · blended_proj

Park+6% (×1.06)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp+5% (×1.05)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)+11% (×1.11)

Statcast (barrel/EV)+16% (×1.16)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)-8% (×0.92)

SP Statcast allowed-5% (×0.95)

Discipline-0% (×1.00)

HR Odds History

Price range · 18 games · 1 HR

Now

+235

High

+1075

Low

+220

Med

+430

Avg

+490

🐾+235

Low +220🐾 HR money zoneHigh +1075

🐾 PRIME+ SPOTspot score 100

Even shorter than his HR range — likelier than when he's gone yard 1× priced here.

⚠ Thin sample (1 HR game) — a hint, not a lock.

HR Winners — odds that cashed

🐾+7952026-05-19vs SFbook line

HomeBat 1stoff LHPSlider

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-06-14 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

15.1

Proj PA

355

HR / PA

.043

ISO

.209

wOBA

.363

wRC+

131

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Home2026-06-14 · FG

Season

HR/FB

14.1

Hard%

41.3

FB%

35.0

Pull%

55.6

Soft%

13.3

GB%

43.0

vs LHP

HR/FB

19.0

Hard%

46.9

FB%

33.3

Pull%

62.5

Soft%

7.8

GB%

41.3

🐾vs RHP

HR/FB

12.3

Hard%

39.1

FB%

35.6

Pull%

52.8

Soft%

15.5

GB%

43.8

🐾Home

HR/FB

11.4

Hard%

43.2

FB%

37.6

Pull%

54.2

Soft%

13.6

GB%

40.2

Away

HR/FB

17.6

Hard%

39.3

FB%

32.1

Pull%

57.0

Soft%

13.1

GB%

46.2

🐾 = split that matches tonight (vs RHP, Home). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

3.0 🐾

LEAN

Chase Field mild HR boost (+6)
Walbert Ureña stingy: only 0.65 HR/9
Crushes 2/3 of SP's top pitches (SI, FF)
Historical sweet spot in the order: #2 (64% of career HRs)
108°F — ball flies in warm air
High barrels/PA (8.2%)
Pitcher suppresses HR (0.65 HR/9)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.184↓ vs season .29954 PA · 15d

OPS

.589

ISO

.183

RBI

K-BB

9-3

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-13	@ CIN	4	2	0	1	0	.500
06-12	@ CIN	5	1	0	0	2	.400
06-11	@ MIA	4	1	0	0	0	.500
06-10	@ MIA	5	0	0	0	1	—
06-09	@ MIA	5	3	3	0	1	.800
06-07	vs WSH	4	0	0	0	0	—
06-06	vs WSH	4	0	0	0	1	—
06-05	vs WSH	3	0	0	0	1	—

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB. Metrics are this hitter's vs RHP split.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾CHChangeupvR37PA	.030	.237	3.4	34.5	72	27.7
🐾SISinkervR27PA	.400	.521	22.7	45.5	59	4.8
🐾FF4-Seam FastballvR65PA	.264	.429	17.6	47.1	66	8.7
🐾STSweepervR13PA	—	.200	0.0	—	50	41.4

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

CHChangeup

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES	.143	.458	8.3	50.0	75	28.6	126	15
vs RHPTONIGHT	.030	.237	3.4	34.5	72	27.7	95	37

SISinker

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES	.272	.615	18.2	63.6	91	0.0	126	13
vs RHPTONIGHT	.400	.521	22.7	45.5	59	4.8	95	27

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	.222	.320	12.0	44.0	54	9.4	126	29
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHESTONIGHT	.264	.429	17.6	47.1	66	8.7	95	65

STSweeper

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	—	.169	0.0	25.0	75	35.7	126	6
vs RHPTONIGHT	—	.200	0.0	0.0	50	41.4	95	13

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

vs LHB

vs RHB

106

🐾vs SHB

Chase Field. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Marte.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Tonight: Batting #2Projected42 of 66 HRs · 64%

🐾 Hottest from spot #2 — 42 of 66 career HRs (64%).

🐾

Hot spots:#2#1

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast. 🐾 jade outline = tonight's spot.

Season Statcast

ISO

.191

Barrel %

10.7

Hard Hit %

45.3

xwOBA

.369

xBA

.299

Brl / PA %

8.20

Max EV (mph)

116.9

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

109.9

Avg EV on HRs

106.6

Avg HR Distance (ft)

400

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

0/5

Crushed (105+ mph)

4/5

Avg LA on HRs

24.6°

Brl / PA %

8.20

Sampled across 5 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Walbert Ureña · top 3 pitches tonightvs RHP split

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

🐾 HIGH EXPLOIT

CHChangeupvs RHP
Use%
32
xwOBA
.237
Whiff%
27.7
HH%
34.5
BRL%
3.4
Pull%
72
⚠ Struggles against this pitch in 37 PA this season.
SISinkervs RHP
Use%
31
xwOBA
.521
Whiff%
4.8
HH%
45.5
BRL%
22.7
Pull%
59
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.
FF4-Seam Fastballvs RHP
Use%
22
xwOBA
.429
Whiff%
8.7
HH%
47.1
BRL%
17.6
Pull%
66
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.

Walbert Ureña (RHP) arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
CHChangeup⚡ PUT-AWAY	31.9	2.1	18.8	75	.227	24.0
SISinker	31.0	8.8	42.6	65	.379	23.7
FF4-Seam Fastball	22.0	0.0	35.5	55	.237	19.2
STSweeper	15.1	16.7	33.3	56	.297	17.0

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

CHChangeup⚡ PUT-AWAY32% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	2.5	20.0	73	.253	17.6	58
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	0.0	12.5	88	.162	39.3	23

SISinker31% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	4.5	59.1	50	.338	14.3	28
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	11.4	34.3	74	.404	29.6	52

FF4-Seam Fastball22% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	0.0	28.6	57	.252	23.4	35
vs RHB	0.0	41.2	53	.218	12.9	24

STSweeper15% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	50.0	50.0	25	.389	6.2	5
vs RHB	7.1	28.6	64	.276	24.2	23

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 24.0% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #5 (xwOBA .532). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (ARI)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Chase Field (330/407/335 ft) · elev 1086ft

5 HRs this season

vs RHP 4vs LHP 1

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

SI🐾Sinker2

FF4-Seam Fastball1

CUCurveball1

SLSlider1

Bats S · Switch hitter

HR Drought — when he's due

HR Drought

games since last HR

PAs since last HR

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾vs RHP210PA	.166	.406	.706	10.2%	7
vs LHP81PA	.253	.533	.842	11.9%	4

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Home144PA	.206	.473	.792	12.7%	5
Away147PA	.177	.412	.698	8.4%	6

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Day121PA	.153	.432	.763	9.8%	2
🐾Night170PA	.218	.449	.731	11.3%	9

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty88PA	.238	.513	.854	4
Runners On106PA	.221	.495	.816	5
RISP64PA	.161	.429	.742	1

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs127PA	.146	.368	.636	3
1 Out86PA	.257	.603	.998	5
2 Outs78PA	.195	.389	.645	3

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. vs RHP · Home · Night · Mon.