Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Showing tomorrow's slate. Projections and lineups will refine as the slate locks in.

Home Run

13.6%

+636

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs TBD (1.20 HR/9) · park 94

2+ RBI

11.5%

+771

RBI 1+

34.8%

+187

Hits 1+

69.0%

-223

Hits 2+

27.3%

+267

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

14.1%

95% CI · 13.8–14.5%

+607

Fair odds

1st AB

3.5%

Through AB2

7.2%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park-6%
Temp+5%
Contact-11%
Statcast+17%

🎯 Early-AB cues

·85F game
·Soft contact profile (home) — below league
·Elite Statcast power (barrel%/EV/bat speed above league)

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0335 · blended_3sys

TTO rampconstant

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)0% (×1.00) · no_pitcher

Park-6% (×0.94)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp+5% (×1.05)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)-11% (×0.89)

Statcast (barrel/EV)+17% (×1.17)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)0% (×1.00)

SP Statcast allowed0% (×1.00)

Discipline+0% (×1.00)

HR Odds History

Price range · 17 games · 2 HR

Now

+830

High

+4510

Low

+430

Med

+655

Avg

+1129

🐾🐾+830

Low +430🐾 HR money zoneHigh +4510

WARMspot score 88

Just below his HR money zone (+595 to +625). Close, not prime.

⚠ Thin sample (2 HR games) — a hint, not a lock.

HR Winners — odds that cashed

🐾+5952026-05-29vs KCbook line

HomeBat 3rdoff RHPCutter

🐾+6252026-05-19vs COLbook line

AwayBat 3rdoff RHPCurveball

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-06-14 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

13.9

Proj PA

357

HR / PA

.039

ISO

.193

wOBA

.349

wRC+

122

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Home2026-06-14 · FG

Season

HR/FB

8.9

Hard%

44.8

FB%

39.3

Pull%

29.4

Soft%

15.9

GB%

39.8

vs LHP

HR/FB

5.6

Hard%

29.1

FB%

32.7

Pull%

30.9

Soft%

23.6

GB%

49.1

vs RHP

HR/FB

9.8

Hard%

50.7

FB%

41.8

Pull%

28.8

Soft%

13.0

GB%

36.3

🐾Home

HR/FB

2.6

Hard%

44.3

FB%

43.2

Pull%

31.8

Soft%

15.9

GB%

37.5

Away

HR/FB

14.6

Hard%

45.1

FB%

36.3

Pull%

27.4

Soft%

15.9

GB%

41.6

🐾 = split that matches tonight (Home). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

4.0 🐾

STRONG PLAY

51.7% hard-hit — punisher
Historical sweet spot in the order: #2 (41% of career HRs)
85°F — ball flies in warm air
High barrels/PA (7.5%)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.214↓ vs season .28346 PA · 15d

OPS

.547

ISO

.072

RBI

K-BB

12-2

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-13	@ BOS	1	0	0	0	0	—
06-12	@ BOS	4	0	0	0	3	—
06-11	@ KC	4	2	1	0	0	1.000
06-10	@ KC	6	2	0	0	0	.333
06-09	@ KC	4	2	0	0	1	.500
06-07	vs CLE	3	1	0	1	0	.667
06-06	vs CLE	2	0	0	1	0	—
06-05	vs CLE	3	0	0	0	1	—

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
STSweeper13PA	.417	.444	42.9	85.7	57	33.3
SISinker47PA	.053	.401	9.7	53.3	61	15.3
FCCutter29PA	.260	.386	16.0	52.2	72	25.8
CHChangeup32PA	.031	.377	25.0	54.5	71	26.8

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

STSweeper

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHP	.200	.367	40.0	100.0	40	29.2	110	11

SISinker

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	.084	.328	0.0	52.6	53	14.3	91	26
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHES	—	.496	25.0	50.0	75	11.4	110	23

FCCutter

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	.333	.319	0.0	50.0	50	18.2	91	6
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHES	.218	.404	21.1	52.6	79	19.4	110	25

CHChangeup

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHP	.121	.416	25.0	58.3	71	19.3	110	33

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

🐾vs LHB

vs RHB

vs SHB

Globe Life Field. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Nimmo.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Hottest from spot #2 — 17 of 41 career HRs (41%).

🐾

Hot spots:#2

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast.

Season Statcast

ISO

.146

Barrel %

10.9

Hard Hit %

51.7

Pull % (HRs)

xwOBA

.371

xBA

.283

Brl / PA %

7.50

Max EV (mph)

110.2

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

106.1

Avg EV on HRs

104.7

Avg HR Distance (ft)

398

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

0/6

Crushed (105+ mph)

3/6

Avg LA on HRs

25.0°

Brl / PA %

7.50

Sampled across 6 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

🐾 Hottest zone: #5 (xwOBA .394). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (TEX)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Globe Life Field (329/407/326 ft) · elev 591ft

6 HRs this season

vs RHP 5vs LHP 1

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

FF🐾4-Seam Fastball2

STSweeper1

CHChangeup1

SLSlider1

CUCurveball1

Bats L · Pull side: RF

HR Drought — when he's due

HR Drought

games since last HR

PAs since last HR

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
vs RHP214PA	.153	.411	.747	14.1%	6
vs LHP78PA	.128	.371	.679	3.6%	1

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Home127PA	.099	.304	.595	9.2%	1
Away165PA	.182	.473	.831	13.3%	6

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Day98PA	.135	.438	.805	9.3%	1
🐾Night194PA	.152	.380	.689	12.5%	6

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty87PA	.128	.333	.620	0
Runners On113PA	.175	.464	.836	4
RISP59PA	.167	.438	.811	2

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs120PA	.156	.431	.764	5
1 Out80PA	.139	.361	.649	1
2 Outs92PA	.139	.392	.751	1

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. Home · Night · Mon.