Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

14.6%

+586

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Joe Ryan (0.88 HR/9) · park 94

Batting #4Confirmed lineup

2+ RBI

12.0%

+732

RBI 1+

35.3%

+183

Hits 1+

69.3%

-226

Hits 2+

27.6%

+262

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

14.2%

95% CI · 13.8–14.6%

+605

Fair odds

1st AB

3.7%

Through AB2

7.4%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park-6%
Temp+5%
vs SP+1%
Contact-10%
SP Contact+5%
Statcast+16%
SP Statcast+3%

🎯 Early-AB cues

·93F game
·Soft contact profile (home) — below league
·Elite Statcast power (barrel%/EV/bat speed above league)

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0335 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)+1% (×1.01) · blended_proj

Park-6% (×0.94)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp+5% (×1.05)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)-10% (×0.90)

Statcast (barrel/EV)+16% (×1.16)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)+5% (×1.05)

SP Statcast allowed+3% (×1.03)

Discipline-0% (×1.00)

HR Odds History

Price range · 18 games

Now

+420

High

+1015

Low

+300

Med

+518

Avg

+535

+420

Low +300High +1015

BUILDING HISTORY

No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.

HR Winners — odds that cashed

No priced HR games in the tracked window yet.

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-07-16 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

11.6

Proj PA

252

HR / PA

.046

ISO

.218

wOBA

.361

wRC+

133

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Home2026-07-16 · FG

Season

HR/FB

8.7

Hard%

46.4

FB%

38.6

Pull%

31.5

Soft%

13.5

GB%

40.1

vs LHP

HR/FB

8.3

Hard%

29.0

FB%

34.8

Pull%

30.4

Soft%

21.7

GB%

46.4

vs RHP

HR/FB

8.9

Hard%

52.5

FB%

39.9

Pull%

31.8

Soft%

10.6

GB%

37.9

🐾Home

HR/FB

4.0

Hard%

46.9

FB%

38.5

Pull%

34.6

Soft%

13.8

GB%

41.5

Away

HR/FB

13.2

Hard%

46.0

FB%

38.7

Pull%

28.5

Soft%

13.1

GB%

38.7

🐾 = split that matches tonight (Home). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

4.0 🐾

STRONG PLAY

Joe Ryan stingy: only 0.88 HR/9
52.6% hard-hit — punisher
Crushes 1/3 of SP's top pitches (ST)
Historical sweet spot in the order: #2 (41% of career HRs)
94°F — ball flies in warm air
High barrels/PA (7.6%)
Pitcher high contact-quality allowed (10.5% brl)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.279↓ vs season .28545 PA · 15d

OPS

.730

ISO

.140

RBI

K-BB

7-2

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	RBI	K	SLG
06-16	vs MIN	3	2	0	0	1.000
06-15	vs MIN	4	0	0	2	—
06-14	@ BOS	5	2	2	0	.800
06-13	@ BOS	1	0	0	0	—
06-12	@ BOS	4	0	0	3	—
06-11	@ KC	4	2	1	0	1.000
06-10	@ KC	6	2	0	0	.333
06-09	@ KC	4	2	0	1	.500

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾FF4-Seam Fastball98PA	.188	.348	5.6	44.9	44	20.1
🐾STSweeper14PA	.384	.466	37.5	87.5	63	34.4
🐾CUCurveball27PA	.193	.329	5.9	47.8	65	20.9
🐾SISinker48PA	.051	.398	9.4	51.6	59	15.1

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	.125	.228	0.0	42.9	48	18.5	94	28
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHES	.197	.398	8.0	48.0	42	14.9	111	78

STSweeper

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHP	.182	.398	33.3	100.0	50	28.0	111	12

CUCurveball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHP	.167	.393	6.2	56.2	63	10.0	111	19

SISinker

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	.084	.328	0.0	52.6	53	14.3	94	26
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHES	—	.485	23.1	46.2	69	11.1	111	24

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

🐾vs LHB

vs RHB

vs SHB

Globe Life Field. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Nimmo.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Tonight: Batting #4Confirmed6 of 41 HRs · 15%

🐾 Hottest from spot #2 — 17 of 41 career HRs (41%).

🐾

Hot spots:#2

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast. 🐾 jade outline = tonight's spot.

Season Statcast

ISO

.151

Barrel %

10.9

Hard Hit %

52.6

Pull % (HRs)

xwOBA

.372

xBA

.285

Brl / PA %

7.60

Max EV (mph)

110.2

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

106.1

Avg EV on HRs

104.7

Avg HR Distance (ft)

398

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

0/6

Crushed (105+ mph)

3/6

Avg LA on HRs

25.0°

Brl / PA %

7.60

Sampled across 6 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Joe Ryan · top 3 pitches tonight

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

🐾 HIGH EXPLOIT

FF4-Seam Fastball
Use%
44
xwOBA
.348
Whiff%
20.1
HH%
44.9
BRL%
5.6
Pull%
44
STSweeper
Use%
14
xwOBA
.466
Whiff%
34.4
HH%
87.5
BRL%
37.5
Pull%
63
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.
CUCurveball
Use%
12
xwOBA
.329
Whiff%
20.9
HH%
47.8
BRL%
5.9
Pull%
65

Career vs Joe Ryan

🐾 Tonight's matchup

—AVG · small sample (2 PA)

OPS

—

RBI

K-BB

1-0

Joe Ryan arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
FF4-Seam Fastball	44.1	12.6	48.5	56	.310	18.4
STSweeper⚡ PUT-AWAY	14.0	10.0	28.6	77	.234	32.1
CUCurveball	12.2	—	24.0	—	.219	21.3
SISinker	11.8	10.0	50.0	45	.301	17.4

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball44% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	13.3	50.7	57	.308	23.4	105
vs RHB	11.1	47.2	53	.311	13.4	56

STSweeper⚡ PUT-AWAY14% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	16.7	41.7	75	.331	33.3	18
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	5.6	22.2	78	.180	30.2	33

SISinker12% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	0.0	33.3	58	.301	21.1	20
vs RHB	14.3	64.3	39	.304	12.9	32

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 32.1% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #5 (xwOBA .394). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (TEX)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Globe Life Field (329/407/326 ft) · elev 591ft

6 HRs this season

vs RHP 5vs LHP 1

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

FF🐾4-Seam Fastball2

STSweeper1

CHChangeup1

SLSlider1

CUCurveball1

Bats L · Pull side: RF

HR Drought — when he's due

HR Drought

games since last HR

PAs since last HR

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
vs RHP223PA	.156	.417	.753	14.1%	6
vs LHP81PA	.137	.384	.693	3.4%	1

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Home134PA	.101	.311	.602	9.7%	1
Away170PA	.190	.484	.843	12.7%	6

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Day98PA	.135	.438	.805	9.3%	1
Night206PA	.158	.393	.704	12.3%	6

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty91PA	.134	.341	.627	0
Runners On118PA	.177	.471	.844	4
RISP61PA	.180	.460	.837	2

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs124PA	.160	.434	.765	5
1 Out86PA	.153	.397	.699	1
2 Outs94PA	.136	.383	.734	1

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. Home · Day · Thu.