Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

10.5%

+849

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Shane Drohan (LHP) (0.48 HR/9) · park 108

2+ RBI

9.8%

+921

RBI 1+

33.3%

+201

Hits 1+

61.4%

-159

Hits 2+

19.3%

+418

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

8.5%

95% CI · 8.2–8.8%

+1077

Fair odds

1st AB

2.1%

Through AB2

4.2%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park+8%
vs SP-6%
Contact-6%
SP Contact-2%
Statcast-9%
SP Statcast+1%
Discipline-1%

🎯 Early-AB cuesvs Shane Drohan (LHP)

·Weak Statcast contact (barrel%/EV below league)

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0263 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)-6% (×0.94) · blended_proj

Park+8% (×1.08)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp0% (×1.00)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)-6% (×0.94)

Statcast (barrel/EV)-9% (×0.91)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)-2% (×0.98)

SP Statcast allowed+1% (×1.01)

Discipline-1% (×0.99)

HR Odds History

Price range · 12 games

Now

+850

High

+1210

Low

+525

Med

+658

Avg

+702

+850

Low +525High +1210

BUILDING HISTORY

No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.

Recent — tap a game

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-06-13 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

9.5

Proj PA

381

HR / PA

.025

ISO

.152

wOBA

.336

wRC+

111

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Away2026-06-13 · FG

Season

HR/FB

9.0

Hard%

31.3

FB%

37.0

Pull%

31.8

Soft%

10.0

GB%

46.9

🐾vs LHP

HR/FB

3.7

Hard%

32.4

FB%

39.7

Pull%

33.8

Soft%

13.2

GB%

47.1

vs RHP

HR/FB

11.8

Hard%

30.8

FB%

35.7

Pull%

30.8

Soft%

8.4

GB%

46.9

Home

HR/FB

9.3

Hard%

29.6

FB%

37.4

Pull%

33.0

Soft%

7.8

GB%

46.1

🐾Away

HR/FB

8.6

Hard%

33.0

FB%

36.1

Pull%

30.9

Soft%

13.4

GB%

48.5

🐾 = split that matches tonight (vs LHP, Away). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

3.0 🐾

LEAN

American Family Field mild HR boost (+8)
Shane Drohan stingy: only 0.48 HR/9
Historical sweet spot in the order: #2 (72% of career HRs)
82°F — ball flies in warm air
Pitcher suppresses HR (0.48 HR/9)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.212↓ vs season .23755 PA · 15d

OPS

.505

ISO

.038

RBI

K-BB

14-3

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-12	@ MIL	3	0	0	0	2	—
06-10	@ TOR	5	1	0	0	3	.200
06-09	@ TOR	4	1	0	0	1	.500
06-08	@ TOR	4	0	0	1	0	—
06-07	vs CHW	5	2	0	0	1	.600
06-06	vs CHW	3	1	0	1	1	.333
06-05	vs CHW	4	0	1	1	0	—
06-04	vs SD	4	1	1	0	1	.250

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB. Metrics are this hitter's vs LHP split.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾FF4-Seam FastballvL37PA	.107	.407	9.1	50.0	46	13.8
🐾SISinkervL13PA	.091	.372	10.0	50.0	50	9.5
🐾SLSlidervL19PA	—	.182	0.0	25.0	63	25.7
🐾FCCuttervL8PA	.250	.227	16.7	33.3	67	—

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHESTONIGHT	.107	.407	9.1	50.0	46	13.8	60	37
vs RHP	.187	.356	7.9	65.8	26	16.8	76	53

SISinker

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHPTONIGHT	.091	.372	10.0	50.0	50	9.5	60	13
vs RHP	.213	.334	8.9	55.6	53	7.9	76	49

SLSlider

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHPTONIGHT	—	.182	0.0	25.0	63	25.7	60	19
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHES	.158	.246	3.8	23.1	81	36.7	76	40

FCCutter

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHPTONIGHT	.250	.227	16.7	33.3	67	0.0	60	8
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHES	—	.300	0.0	0.0	33	39.1	76	14

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

vs LHB

🐾vs RHB

108

vs SHB

American Family Field. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Turner.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Hottest from spot #2 — 26 of 36 career HRs (72%).

🐾

Hot spots:#2

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast.

Season Statcast

ISO

.115

Barrel %

5.2

Hard Hit %

39.3

Pull % (HRs)

xwOBA

.284

xBA

.237

Brl / PA %

3.70

Max EV (mph)

109.7

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

105.2

Avg EV on HRs

102.3

Avg HR Distance (ft)

388

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

0/5

Crushed (105+ mph)

1/5

Avg LA on HRs

29.2°

Brl / PA %

3.70

Sampled across 5 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Shane Drohan · top 3 pitches tonightvs LHP split

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

🐾 LEAN EXPLOIT

FF4-Seam Fastballvs LHP
Use%
28
xwOBA
.407
Whiff%
13.8
HH%
50.0
BRL%
9.1
Pull%
46
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.
SISinkervs LHP
Use%
20
xwOBA
.372
Whiff%
9.5
HH%
50.0
BRL%
10.0
Pull%
50
SLSlidervs LHP
Use%
18
xwOBA
.182
Whiff%
25.7
HH%
25.0
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
63
⚠ Struggles against this pitch in 19 PA this season.

Shane Drohan (LHP) arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
FF4-Seam Fastball	28.3	13.6	52.6	46	.226	24.1
SISinker⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	19.8	14.3	53.6	64	.376	25.0
SLSlider	18.4	3.4	25.9	76	.216	22.0
FCCutter	15.7	10.7	29.2	64	.357	9.1

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball28% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	18.2	45.5	55	.322	18.2	18
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	9.1	45.5	36	.164	25.5	27

SISinker⚡ PUT-AWAY20% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	8.3	41.7	83	.310	16.7	13
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	18.8	62.5	50	.424	—	18

SLSlider18% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	5.3	26.3	68	.193	29.0	28
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	0.0	30.0	90	.267	10.3	14

FCCutter16% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	20.0	20.0	80	.372	—	6
vs RHB	8.7	34.8	61	.353	9.1	25

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 25.0% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #4 (xwOBA .435). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (MIL)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: American Family Field (344/400/345 ft) · elev 635ft

5 HRs this season

vs RHP 4vs LHP 1

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

SI🐾Sinker2

FF🐾4-Seam Fastball2

SLSlider1

Bats R · Pull side: LF

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
vs RHP203PA	.134	.371	.637	5.2%	6
🐾vs LHP96PA	.072	.262	.554	5.5%	1

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Home159PA	.108	.356	.645	4.7%	4
🐾Away140PA	.124	.318	.575	6.2%	3

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Day113PA	.107	.311	.576	4.3%	2
🐾Night186PA	.120	.354	.634	6.0%	5

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty97PA	.108	.323	.570	2
Runners On104PA	.095	.316	.595	2
RISP57PA	.077	.269	.515	1

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs123PA	.146	.391	.716	4
1 Out92PA	.068	.250	.457	1
2 Outs84PA	.125	.363	.637	2

Count

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0-043PA	.325	.674	1.023	3
1-019PA	.369	.737	1.105	2
0-131PA	.129	.226	.323	1
2-05PA	—	.400	.800	0
0-227PA	—	.148	.296	0
3-05PA	—	—	1.000	0
1-258PA	.017	.138	.259	0
2-247PA	.022	.128	.234	0
3-233PA	.041	.333	.788	0

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. vs LHP · Away · Night · Sat.