Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

9.6%

+946

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Sean Manaea (1.10 HR/9) · park 92

Batting #1Projected lineup

2+ RBI

9.3%

+980

RBI 1+

32.8%

+205

Hits 1+

60.7%

-154

Hits 2+

18.6%

+437

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

8.1%

95% CI · 7.7–8.3%

+1143

Fair odds

1st AB

2.2%

Through AB2

4.3%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park-8%
Temp+5%
vs SP+11%
Lineup+3%
Contact-7%
SP Contact-3%
Statcast-11%

🎯 Early-AB cues

·88F game
·Big bats hitting behind
·Weak Statcast contact (barrel%/EV below league)

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0256 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)+11% (×1.11) · blended_proj

Park-8% (×0.92)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp+5% (×1.05)

Lineup+3% (×1.03)

Contact (batted-ball)-7% (×0.93)

Statcast (barrel/EV)-11% (×0.89)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)-3% (×0.97)

SP Statcast allowed+1% (×1.01)

Discipline0% (×1.00)

HR Odds History

Price range · 18 games

Now

+525

High

+1145

Low

+365

Med

+875

Avg

+805

+525

Low +365High +1145

BUILDING HISTORY

No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.

HR Winners — odds that cashed

No priced HR games in the tracked window yet.

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-07-16 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

8.0

Proj PA

271

HR / PA

.030

ISO

.165

wOBA

.337

wRC+

111

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Home2026-07-16 · FG

Season

HR/FB

9.3

Hard%

34.8

FB%

36.5

Pull%

30.4

Soft%

12.5

GB%

46.6

vs LHP

HR/FB

2.5

Hard%

39.4

FB%

40.4

Pull%

30.3

Soft%

12.1

GB%

46.5

vs RHP

HR/FB

13.2

Hard%

32.5

FB%

34.5

Pull%

30.5

Soft%

12.7

GB%

46.7

🐾Home

HR/FB

13.0

Hard%

32.9

FB%

37.8

Pull%

33.6

Soft%

10.5

GB%

46.9

Away

HR/FB

5.6

Hard%

36.6

FB%

35.3

Pull%

27.5

Soft%

14.4

GB%

46.4

🐾 = split that matches tonight (Home). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

2.0 🐾

DART THROW

Citizens Bank Park suppresses HRs (92)
Historical sweet spot in the order: #2 (72% of career HRs)
Already has 1 HR / 2 RBI off this SP in 19 PA
89°F — ball flies in warm air
19 mph wind — check direction relative to spray
Park drag (92)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.204↓ vs season .23358 PA · 15d

OPS

.518

ISO

.055

RBI

K-BB

15-3

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	BB	K	SLG
06-17	vs MIA	5	3	0	1	.800
06-15	vs MIA	3	0	0	0	—
06-14	@ MIL	4	0	0	2	—
06-13	@ MIL	6	1	0	2	.167
06-12	@ MIL	3	0	0	2	—
06-10	@ TOR	5	1	0	3	.200
06-09	@ TOR	4	1	0	1	.500
06-08	@ TOR	4	0	1	0	—

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾FF4-Seam Fastball91PA	.144	.359	7.8	54.2	33	21.0
🐾STSweeper28PA	—	.147	0.0	6.3	63	41.3
🐾SISinker67PA	.191	.327	8.1	50.8	55	11.2

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	.096	.384	8.0	44.0	40	13.4	59	40
vs RHP	.173	.341	7.7	64.1	28	21.6	72	58

STSweeper

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHP	—	.151	0.0	6.7	60	43.3	72	27

SISinker

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	.126	.306	7.1	42.9	50	11.5	59	18
vs RHP	.200	.334	8.3	54.2	56	7.6	72	52

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

vs LHB

131

🐾vs RHB

vs SHB

111

Citizens Bank Park. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Turner.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Tonight: Batting #1Projected10 of 36 HRs · 28%

🐾 Hottest from spot #2 — 26 of 36 career HRs (72%).

🐾

Hot spots:#2

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast. 🐾 jade outline = tonight's spot.

Season Statcast

ISO

.111

Barrel %

4.9

Hard Hit %

38.2

Pull % (HRs)

xwOBA

.280

xBA

.233

Brl / PA %

3.50

Max EV (mph)

109.7

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

105.2

Avg EV on HRs

102.3

Avg HR Distance (ft)

388

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

0/5

Crushed (105+ mph)

1/5

Avg LA on HRs

29.2°

Brl / PA %

3.50

Sampled across 5 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Sean Manaea · top 3 pitches tonight

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Tough matchup

FF4-Seam Fastball
Use%
37
xwOBA
.359
Whiff%
21.0
HH%
54.2
BRL%
7.8
Pull%
33
STSweeper
Use%
32
xwOBA
.147
Whiff%
41.3
HH%
6.3
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
63
⚠ Struggles against this pitch in 28 PA this season.
SISinker
Use%
19
xwOBA
.327
Whiff%
11.2
HH%
50.8
BRL%
8.1
Pull%
55

Career vs Sean Manaea

🐾 Tonight's matchup

.316AVG · limited (19 PA)

OPS

.790

RBI

K-BB

6-0

Sean Manaea arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
FF4-Seam Fastball	37.2	11.5	51.0	40	.330	18.8
STSweeper	32.2	9.5	28.9	86	.279	20.2
SISinker⚡ PUT-AWAY	18.7	2.5	32.5	55	.326	28.6

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball37% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	8.3	50.0	50	.376	23.1	20
vs RHB	12.5	52.5	38	.316	18.0	64

STSweeper32% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	15.4	38.5	85	.202	26.5	27
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	6.9	24.1	86	.334	15.0	43

SISinker⚡ PUT-AWAY19% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	0.0	25.0	50	.264	27.3	23
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	5.0	40.0	60	.376	23.1	30

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 28.6% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #4 (xwOBA .435). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (PHI)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Citizens Bank Park (329/401/330 ft) · elev 39ft

5 HRs this season

vs RHP 4vs LHP 1

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

SI🐾Sinker2

FF🐾4-Seam Fastball2

SLSlider1

Bats R · Pull side: LF

HR Drought — when he's due

HR Drought

games since last HR

PAs since last HR

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
vs RHP213PA	.129	.365	.633	5.0%	6
vs LHP105PA	.075	.269	.555	5.0%	1

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Home168PA	.108	.363	.661	4.4%	4
Away150PA	.115	.302	.549	5.8%	3

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Day122PA	.107	.321	.591	4.0%	2
Night196PA	.114	.342	.618	5.7%	5

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty105PA	.110	.320	.568	2
Runners On112PA	.088	.311	.588	2
RISP61PA	.072	.268	.514	1

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs129PA	.138	.388	.714	4
1 Out99PA	.064	.234	.436	1
2 Outs90PA	.128	.372	.650	2

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. Home · Day · Thu.