Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

7.2%

+1285

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Trevor McDonald (RHP) (0.69 HR/9) · park 100

2+ RBI

8.0%

+1155

RBI 1+

31.6%

+216

Hits 1+

63.0%

-170

Hits 2+

20.8%

+381

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

8.2%

95% CI · 7.9–8.6%

+1114

Fair odds

1st AB

1.8%

Through AB2

3.7%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

vs SP-18%
Contact+4%
SP Contact-17%
Statcast-8%
SP Statcast-7%

🎯 Early-AB cuesvs Trevor McDonald (RHP)

·SP suppresses HRs (blended_proj)
·Weak Statcast contact (barrel%/EV below league)

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0304 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)-18% (×0.82) · blended_proj

Park0% (×1.00)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp0% (×1.00)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)+4% (×1.04)

Statcast (barrel/EV)-8% (×0.92)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)-17% (×0.83)

SP Statcast allowed-7% (×0.93)

Discipline-0% (×1.00)

HR Odds History

Price range · 14 games

Now

+1285

High

+1185

Low

+470

Med

+668

Avg

+703

+1285

Low +470High +1185

BUILDING HISTORY

No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.

Recent — tap a game

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-06-12 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

12.2

Proj PA

390

HR / PA

.031

ISO

.159

wOBA

.330

wRC+

111

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Away2026-06-12 · FG

Season

HR/FB

7.2

Hard%

33.3

FB%

37.4

Pull%

48.2

Soft%

16.7

GB%

40.5

vs LHP

HR/FB

5.0

Hard%

37.7

FB%

37.7

Pull%

41.5

Soft%

17.0

GB%

41.5

🐾vs RHP

HR/FB

7.9

Hard%

32.0

FB%

37.3

Pull%

50.3

Soft%

16.6

GB%

40.2

Home

HR/FB

4.3

Hard%

33.3

FB%

38.3

Pull%

45.8

Soft%

18.3

GB%

40.0

🐾Away

HR/FB

10.8

Hard%

33.3

FB%

36.3

Pull%

51.0

Soft%

14.7

GB%

41.2

🐾 = split that matches tonight (vs RHP, Away). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

2.0 🐾

DART THROW

Trevor McDonald stingy: only 0.69 HR/9
Historical sweet spot in the order: #2 (44% of career HRs)
17 mph wind — check direction relative to spray
Pitcher suppresses HR (0.69 HR/9)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.184↓ vs season .24658 PA · 15d

OPS

.640

ISO

.163

RBI

K-BB

9-7

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	HR	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-12	@ SF	4	1	0	0	0	1	.500
06-11	@ COL	4	1	1	2	1	1	1.000
💣 410ft · 103.5 EV · Sweeper
06-10	@ COL	2	0	0	0	2	0	—
06-09	@ COL	3	2	0	1	0	0	.667
06-07	vs SF	5	0	0	0	0	1	—
06-06	vs SF	3	0	0	0	1	2	—
06-05	vs SF	4	0	0	0	1	0	—
06-04	vs ATH	4	1	0	0	0	1	.500

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB. Metrics are this hitter's vs RHP split.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾SISinkervR70PA	.127	.325	5.0	35.0	67	4.0
🐾SLSlidervR42PA	.135	.268	12.5	37.5	71	35.4
🐾CHChangeupvR13PA	.167	.413	0.0	63.6	100	14.3

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

SISinker

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES	—	.377	0.0	28.6	57	0.0	87	10
vs RHPTONIGHT	.127	.325	5.0	35.0	67	4.0	100	70

SLSlider

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	—	.146	0.0	0.0	67	15.8	87	10
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHESTONIGHT	.135	.268	12.5	37.5	71	35.4	100	42

CHChangeup

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	—	.355	10.0	40.0	80	25.0	87	13
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHESTONIGHT	.167	.413	0.0	63.6	100	14.3	100	13

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

vs LHB

🐾vs RHB

100

vs SHB

Oracle Park. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Bregman.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Hottest from spot #2 — 18 of 41 career HRs (44%).

🐾

Hot spots:#2#3

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast.

Season Statcast

ISO

.107

Barrel %

5.4

Hard Hit %

38.7

Pull % (HRs)

xwOBA

.314

xBA

.246

Brl / PA %

3.90

Max EV (mph)

108.3

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

107.3

Avg EV on HRs

103.7

Avg HR Distance (ft)

398

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

0/7

Crushed (105+ mph)

3/7

Avg LA on HRs

30.1°

Brl / PA %

3.90

Sampled across 7 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Trevor McDonald · top 3 pitches tonightvs RHP split

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Neutral matchup

SISinkervs RHP
Use%
58
xwOBA
.325
Whiff%
4.0
HH%
35.0
BRL%
5.0
Pull%
67
SLSlidervs RHP
Use%
29
xwOBA
.268
Whiff%
35.4
HH%
37.5
BRL%
12.5
Pull%
71
⚠ Struggles against this pitch in 42 PA this season.
CHChangeupvs RHP
Use%
13
xwOBA
.413
Whiff%
14.3
HH%
63.6
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
100
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.

Career vs Trevor McDonald (RHP)

🐾 Tonight's matchup

—AVG · small sample (2 PA)

OPS

—

RBI

K-BB

1-0

Trevor McDonald (RHP) arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
SISinker	57.5	3.5	41.8	57	.303	23.5
SLSlider⚡ PUT-AWAY	28.9	4.3	40.9	57	.267	24.2
CHChangeup	13.2	20.0	30.0	60	.375	20.0

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

SISinker58% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	4.2	43.8	63	.329	21.1	60
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	2.6	42.1	50	.274	26.5	54

SLSlider⚡ PUT-AWAY29% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	0.0	25.0	13	.335	22.2	19
vs RHB	6.7	46.7	80	.216	23.1	24

CHChangeup13% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	22.2	33.3	56	.421	24.1	17
vs RHB	no sample

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 24.2% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #3 (xwOBA .465). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (SF)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Oracle Park (339/399/309 ft) · elev 13ft

7 HRs this season

vs RHP 6vs LHP 1

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

FF🐾4-Seam Fastball3

SISinker2

FCCutter1

STSweeper1

Bats R · Pull side: LF

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾vs RHP233PA	.130	.380	.702	6.9%	5
vs LHP81PA	.044	.279	.637	5.5%	1

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Home161PA	.093	.293	.591	6.2%	2
🐾Away153PA	.125	.419	.785	6.9%	4

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Day138PA	.086	.274	.578	7.5%	3
🐾Night176PA	.126	.415	.767	5.6%	3

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty105PA	.118	.398	.760	3
Runners On156PA	.059	.272	.573	1
RISP89PA	.052	.231	.489	1

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs96PA	.149	.448	.813	2
1 Out110PA	.149	.404	.749	4
2 Outs108PA	.032	.221	.508	0

Count

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0-028PA	.074	.296	.511	0
1-017PA	.236	.471	.706	1
0-132PA	.200	.567	.942	2
2-011PA	.363	.727	1.091	1
0-227PA	.074	.370	.667	0
3-09PA	—	—	1.000	0
1-246PA	.087	.304	.522	1
2-256PA	.109	.309	.523	1
3-244PA	.104	.276	.730	1

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. vs RHP · Away · Night · Sat.