Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

8.3%

+1102

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Trevor McDonald (RHP) (0.69 HR/9) · park 100

2+ RBI

8.6%

+1066

RBI 1+

32.2%

+211

Hits 1+

64.7%

-183

Hits 2+

22.5%

+344

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

7.9%

95% CI · 7.6–8.2%

+1163

Fair odds

1st AB

1.8%

Through AB2

3.5%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

vs SP-18%
Contact+1%
SP Contact-17%
Statcast-2%
SP Statcast-7%

🎯 Early-AB cuesvs Trevor McDonald (RHP)

·SP suppresses HRs (blended_proj)

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0286 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)-18% (×0.82) · blended_proj

Park0% (×1.00)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp0% (×1.00)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)+1% (×1.01)

Statcast (barrel/EV)-2% (×0.98)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)-17% (×0.83)

SP Statcast allowed-7% (×0.93)

Discipline-0% (×1.00)

HR Odds History

Price range · 13 games

Now

+1100

High

+8030

Low

+600

Med

+895

Avg

+2481

+1100

Low +600High +8030

BUILDING HISTORY

No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.

Recent — tap a game

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-06-12 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

6.9

Proj PA

224

HR / PA

.031

ISO

.150

wOBA

.318

wRC+

102

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Away2026-06-12 · FG

Season

HR/FB

6.7

Hard%

31.8

FB%

34.1

Pull%

37.1

Soft%

14.4

GB%

44.7

vs LHP

HR/FB

14.3

Hard%

42.6

FB%

44.7

Pull%

36.2

Soft%

10.6

GB%

40.4

🐾vs RHP

HR/FB

0.0

Hard%

25.9

FB%

28.2

Pull%

37.6

Soft%

16.5

GB%

47.1

Home

HR/FB

4.0

Hard%

22.4

FB%

37.3

Pull%

37.3

Soft%

14.9

GB%

38.8

🐾Away

HR/FB

10.0

Hard%

41.5

FB%

30.8

Pull%

36.9

Soft%

13.8

GB%

50.8

🐾 = split that matches tonight (vs RHP, Away). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

2.0 🐾

DART THROW

Trevor McDonald stingy: only 0.69 HR/9
Historical sweet spot in the order: #4 (57% of career HRs)
17 mph wind — check direction relative to spray
High barrels/PA (4.9%)
Pitcher suppresses HR (0.69 HR/9)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.156↓ vs season .25634 PA · 15d

OPS

.456

ISO

.094

RBI

K-BB

5-2

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	HR	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-12	@ SF	3	0	0	0	1	1	—
06-11	@ COL	4	1	1	1	0	1	1.000
💣 428ft · 105.5 EV · Sweeper
06-10	@ COL	1	0	0	0	1	0	—
06-09	@ COL	1	1	0	0	0	0	1.000
06-07	vs SF	4	1	0	0	0	1	.250
06-06	vs SF	4	0	0	0	0	0	—
06-05	vs SF	4	2	0	1	0	1	.500
06-02	vs ATH	3	0	0	0	0	0	—

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB. Metrics are this hitter's vs RHP split.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾SISinkervR40PA	.027	.343	0.0	34.4	53	5.3
🐾SLSlidervR32PA	.133	.214	0.0	36.4	55	33.3
🐾CHChangeup12PA	.272	.291	11.1	50.0	89	42.9

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

SISinker

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES	.167	.437	20.0	80.0	60	22.2	170	7
vs RHPTONIGHT	.027	.343	0.0	34.4	53	5.3	78	40

SLSlider

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES	—	.380	0.0	28.6	57	29.4	170	11
vs RHPTONIGHT	.133	.214	0.0	36.4	55	33.3	78	32

CHChangeup

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	.272	.317	12.5	50.0	88	42.3	170	12
vs RHP	no sample

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

vs LHB

🐾vs RHB

100

vs SHB

Oracle Park. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Kelly.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Hottest from spot #4 — 4 of 7 career HRs (57%).

🐾

Hot spots:#4#5

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast.

Season Statcast

ISO

.092

Barrel %

6.8

Hard Hit %

40.2

Pull % (HRs)

100

xwOBA

.323

xBA

.256

Brl / PA %

4.90

Max EV (mph)

108.4

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

105.2

Avg EV on HRs

102.6

Avg HR Distance (ft)

414

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

0/3

Crushed (105+ mph)

1/3

Avg LA on HRs

33.0°

Brl / PA %

4.90

Sampled across 3 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Trevor McDonald · top 3 pitches tonightvs RHP split

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Neutral matchup

SISinkervs RHP
Use%
58
xwOBA
.343
Whiff%
5.3
HH%
34.4
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
53
SLSlidervs RHP
Use%
29
xwOBA
.214
Whiff%
33.3
HH%
36.4
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
55
⚠ Struggles against this pitch in 32 PA this season.
CHChangeup
Use%
13
xwOBA
.291
Whiff%
42.9
HH%
50.0
BRL%
11.1
Pull%
89

Career vs Trevor McDonald (RHP)

🐾 Tonight's matchup

.500AVG · small sample (2 PA)

OPS

1.000

RBI

K-BB

1-0

Trevor McDonald (RHP) arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
SISinker	57.5	3.5	41.8	57	.303	23.5
SLSlider⚡ PUT-AWAY	28.9	4.3	40.9	57	.267	24.2
CHChangeup	13.2	20.0	30.0	60	.375	20.0

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

SISinker58% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	4.2	43.8	63	.329	21.1	60
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	2.6	42.1	50	.274	26.5	54

SLSlider⚡ PUT-AWAY29% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	0.0	25.0	13	.335	22.2	19
vs RHB	6.7	46.7	80	.216	23.1	24

CHChangeup13% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	22.2	33.3	56	.421	24.1	17
vs RHB	no sample

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 24.2% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #8 (xwOBA .424). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (SF)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Oracle Park (339/399/309 ft) · elev 13ft

3 HRs this season

vs RHP 1vs LHP 2

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

SLSlider1

FCCutter1

CHChangeup1

Bats R · Pull side: LF

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾vs RHP119PA	.028	.278	.597	4.3%	0
vs LHP67PA	.206	.534	.952	14.6%	3

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Home97PA	.058	.337	.698	7.8%	1
🐾Away89PA	.125	.400	.748	7.7%	2

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Day93PA	.122	.415	.791	12.5%	2
🐾Night93PA	.059	.321	.654	2.9%	1

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty57PA	.076	.288	.569	1
Runners On88PA	.119	.382	.746	2
RISP56PA	.163	.449	.824	2

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs65PA	.103	.448	.863	1
1 Out58PA	.018	.309	.637	0
2 Outs63PA	.151	.340	.657	2

Count

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0-020PA	.158	.474	.824	1
1-021PA	.100	.600	1.124	0
0-121PA	—	.250	.536	0
2-03PA	—	.333	.667	0
0-216PA	.188	.500	.812	1
3-02PA	—	—	1.000	0
1-229PA	.148	.370	.646	1
2-218PA	—	.111	.222	0
3-230PA	.105	.316	.816	0

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. vs RHP · Away · Night · Sat.