Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Showing tomorrow's slate. Projections and lineups will refine as the slate locks in.

Home Run

14.8%

+575

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs TBD (1.20 HR/9) · park 94

2+ RBI

12.2%

+723

RBI 1+

35.4%

+182

Hits 1+

60.3%

-152

Hits 2+

18.3%

+446

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

23.7%

95% CI · 23.2–24.2%

+322

Fair odds

1st AB

6.1%

Through AB2

12.2%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park-6%
Temp+5%
Contact+5%
Statcast+23%

🎯 Early-AB cues

·85F game
·Elite Statcast power (barrel%/EV/bat speed above league)

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0488 · blended_3sys

TTO rampconstant

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)0% (×1.00) · no_pitcher

Park-6% (×0.94)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp+5% (×1.05)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)+5% (×1.05)

Statcast (barrel/EV)+23% (×1.23)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)0% (×1.00)

SP Statcast allowed0% (×1.00)

Discipline-1% (×0.99)

HR Odds History

Price range · 8 games

Now

+770

High

+4510

Low

+305

Med

+378

Avg

+1407

+770

Low +305High +4510

BUILDING HISTORY

No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.

HR Winners — odds that cashed

No priced HR games in the tracked window yet.

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-06-14 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

17.0

Proj PA

323

HR / PA

.053

ISO

.236

wOBA

.368

wRC+

136

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Home2026-06-14 · FG

Season

HR/FB

18.0

Hard%

40.8

FB%

40.0

Pull%

48.8

Soft%

11.2

GB%

44.8

vs LHP

HR/FB

11.1

Hard%

36.7

FB%

30.0

Pull%

40.0

Soft%

13.3

GB%

56.7

vs RHP

HR/FB

19.5

Hard%

42.1

FB%

43.2

Pull%

51.6

Soft%

10.5

GB%

41.1

🐾Home

HR/FB

9.1

Hard%

42.4

FB%

37.3

Pull%

55.9

Soft%

6.8

GB%

45.8

Away

HR/FB

25.0

Hard%

39.4

FB%

42.4

Pull%

42.4

Soft%

15.2

GB%

43.9

🐾 = split that matches tonight (Home). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

4.0 🐾

STRONG PLAY

15.2% barrel rate — top-tier loud contact
Historical sweet spot in the order: #2 (85% of career HRs)
85°F — ball flies in warm air
Elite barrel% (15.2)
High barrels/PA (9.3%)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.238↑ vs season .23122 PA · 15d

OPS

.797

ISO

.286

RBI

K-BB

4-1

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	HR	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-11	@ KC	4	2	1	1	0	0	1.250
💣 391ft · 100.0 EV · Changeup
06-10	@ KC	5	0	0	0	1	1	—
06-09	@ KC	4	1	0	1	0	2	.250
06-06	vs CLE	4	1	0	0	0	1	.250
06-05	vs CLE	4	1	1	2	0	0	1.000
💣 399ft · 105.1 EV · Slider
05-13	vs ARI	4	0	0	0	0	2	—
05-12	vs ARI	4	0	0	1	0	1	—
05-11	vs ARI	3	0	0	0	0	0	—

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
FCCutter19PA	.421	.500	16.7	44.4	83	11.5
CHChangeup27PA	.346	.390	20.0	52.6	85	39.0
SISinker41PA	.029	.348	12.5	60.0	56	25.6
CUCurveball11PA	.200	.297	—	40.0	—	40.9

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

FCCutter

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHP	.421	.500	16.7	44.4	83	7.1	93	19

CHChangeup

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHP	.346	.402	21.1	57.9	84	29.5	93	28

SISinker

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES	.062	.390	7.7	92.3	62	23.7	54	18
vs RHP	.046	.315	15.8	42.1	53	24.0	93	26

CUCurveball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHP	.500	.537	75.0	75.0	100	38.9	93	7

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

🐾vs LHB

vs RHB

vs SHB

Globe Life Field. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Seager.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Hottest from spot #2 — 45 of 53 career HRs (85%).

🐾

Hot spots:#2

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast.

Season Statcast

ISO

.187

Barrel %

15.2

Hard Hit %

44.8

Pull % (HRs)

xwOBA

.336

xBA

.231

Brl / PA %

9.30

Max EV (mph)

110.3

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

108.8

Avg EV on HRs

104.2

Avg HR Distance (ft)

394

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

0/7

Crushed (105+ mph)

2/7

Avg LA on HRs

32.0°

Brl / PA %

9.30

Sampled across 7 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

🐾 Hottest zone: #5 (xwOBA .543). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (TEX)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Globe Life Field (329/407/326 ft) · elev 591ft

7 HRs this season

vs RHP 7vs LHP 0

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

FF🐾4-Seam Fastball3

FCCutter2

CHChangeup2

Bats L · Pull side: RF

HR Drought — when he's due

HR Drought

games since last HR

PAs since last HR

Homers about every 4.0 games · 17 PA (2 HR in 8 G)

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
vs RHP149PA	.225	.419	.708	19.0%	8
vs LHP55PA	.083	.250	.523	6.7%	1

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Home93PA	.093	.244	.448	13.0%	2
Away111PA	.275	.495	.846	19.7%	7

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Day66PA	.166	.296	.554	17.9%	3
🐾Night138PA	.196	.407	.704	15.6%	6

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty81PA	.137	.342	.626	2
Runners On86PA	.164	.315	.571	4
RISP45PA	.236	.447	.736	3

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs59PA	.225	.388	.693	3
1 Out89PA	.142	.321	.579	3
2 Outs56PA	.220	.440	.744	3

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. Home · Night · Mon.