Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

7.9%

+1170

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Trevor McDonald (RHP) (0.69 HR/9) · park 100

2+ RBI

8.3%

+1100

RBI 1+

31.9%

+213

Hits 1+

53.0%

-113

Hits 2+

12.4%

+705

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

9.5%

95% CI · 9.1–9.8%

+956

Fair odds

1st AB

2.2%

Through AB2

4.2%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

vs SP-18%
Contact+9%
SP Contact-17%
Statcast-2%
SP Statcast-7%
Discipline-1%

🎯 Early-AB cuesvs Trevor McDonald (RHP)

·SP suppresses HRs (blended_proj)
·Elite batted-ball profile (away) — Pull/Hard/FB/HR-FB above league

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0341 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)-18% (×0.82) · blended_proj

Park0% (×1.00)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp0% (×1.00)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)+9% (×1.09)

Statcast (barrel/EV)-2% (×0.98)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)-17% (×0.83)

SP Statcast allowed-7% (×0.93)

Discipline-1% (×0.99)

HR Odds History

Price range · 14 games

Now

+1170

High

+6000

Low

+465

Med

+782

Avg

+1532

+1170

Low +465High +6000

BUILDING HISTORY

No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.

Recent — tap a game

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-06-12 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

16.0

Proj PA

394

HR / PA

.041

ISO

.193

wOBA

.335

wRC+

114

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Away2026-06-12 · FG

Season

HR/FB

10.4

Hard%

29.9

FB%

42.9

Pull%

45.9

Soft%

17.2

GB%

42.3

vs LHP

HR/FB

14.3

Hard%

24.0

FB%

42.9

Pull%

42.0

Soft%

16.0

GB%

44.9

🐾vs RHP

HR/FB

8.7

Hard%

32.7

FB%

43.0

Pull%

47.7

Soft%

17.8

GB%

41.1

Home

HR/FB

8.3

Hard%

29.1

FB%

41.9

Pull%

46.5

Soft%

16.3

GB%

44.2

🐾Away

HR/FB

12.9

Hard%

31.0

FB%

44.3

Pull%

45.1

Soft%

18.3

GB%

40.0

🐾 = split that matches tonight (vs RHP, Away). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

2.0 🐾

DART THROW

Trevor McDonald stingy: only 0.69 HR/9
Historical sweet spot in the order: #5 (38% of career HRs)
17 mph wind — check direction relative to spray
High barrels/PA (4.4%)
Pitcher suppresses HR (0.69 HR/9)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.143↓ vs season .19340 PA · 15d

OPS

.450

ISO

.057

RBI

K-BB

13-5

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-12	@ SF	3	1	0	0	0	.333
06-11	@ COL	3	0	0	1	2	—
06-10	@ COL	2	0	0	1	2	—
06-09	@ COL	4	1	0	0	1	.500
06-06	vs SF	0	0	0	0	0	—
06-05	vs SF	4	0	0	0	0	—
06-04	vs ATH	4	1	1	0	1	.250
06-03	vs ATH	4	1	0	0	2	.500

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB. Metrics are this hitter's vs RHP split.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾SISinkervR35PA	.219	.414	14.3	60.7	61	18.2
🐾SLSlidervR31PA	.037	.228	0.0	40.0	80	36.7
🐾CHChangeupvR16PA	—	.164	14.3	28.6	43	38.5

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

SISinker

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	.250	.256	0.0	50.0	38	15.4	57	14
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHESTONIGHT	.219	.414	14.3	60.7	61	18.2	81	35

SLSlider

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	—	.043	0.0	0.0	75	43.5	57	10
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHESTONIGHT	.037	.228	0.0	40.0	80	36.7	81	31

CHChangeup

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	—	.159	0.0	30.0	50	48.1	57	13
vs RHPTONIGHT	—	.164	14.3	28.6	43	38.5	81	16

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

vs LHB

🐾vs RHB

100

vs SHB

Oracle Park. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Swanson.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Hottest from spot #5 — 3 of 8 career HRs (38%).

🐾

Hot spots:#5#2#7

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast.

Season Statcast

ISO

.140

Barrel %

7.0

Hard Hit %

40.8

Pull % (HRs)

xwOBA

.288

xBA

.193

Brl / PA %

4.40

Max EV (mph)

110.3

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

110.3

Avg EV on HRs

104.2

Avg HR Distance (ft)

398

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

1/7

Crushed (105+ mph)

3/7

Avg LA on HRs

30.0°

Brl / PA %

4.40

Sampled across 7 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Trevor McDonald · top 3 pitches tonightvs RHP split

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

🐾 LEAN EXPLOIT

SISinkervs RHP
Use%
58
xwOBA
.414
Whiff%
18.2
HH%
60.7
BRL%
14.3
Pull%
61
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.
SLSlidervs RHP
Use%
29
xwOBA
.228
Whiff%
36.7
HH%
40.0
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
80
⚠ Struggles against this pitch in 31 PA this season.
CHChangeupvs RHP
Use%
13
xwOBA
.164
Whiff%
38.5
HH%
28.6
BRL%
14.3
Pull%
43
⚠ Struggles against this pitch in 16 PA this season.

Trevor McDonald (RHP) arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
SISinker	57.5	3.5	41.8	57	.303	23.5
SLSlider⚡ PUT-AWAY	28.9	4.3	40.9	57	.267	24.2
CHChangeup	13.2	20.0	30.0	60	.375	20.0

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

SISinker58% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	4.2	43.8	63	.329	21.1	60
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	2.6	42.1	50	.274	26.5	54

SLSlider⚡ PUT-AWAY29% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	0.0	25.0	13	.335	22.2	19
vs RHB	6.7	46.7	80	.216	23.1	24

CHChangeup13% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	22.2	33.3	56	.421	24.1	17
vs RHB	no sample

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 24.2% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #5 (xwOBA .476). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (SF)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Oracle Park (339/399/309 ft) · elev 13ft

7 HRs this season

vs RHP 4vs LHP 3

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

FF🐾4-Seam Fastball3

SISinker2

STSweeper2

Bats R · Pull side: LF

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾vs RHP175PA	.122	.304	.613	6.8%	4
vs LHP79PA	.174	.348	.579	5.9%	3

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Home126PA	.094	.262	.532	6.2%	3
🐾Away128PA	.182	.373	.672	7.0%	4

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Day110PA	.065	.183	.403	6.3%	2
🐾Night144PA	.193	.419	.752	6.7%	5

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty77PA	.098	.292	.539	1
Runners On125PA	.177	.363	.669	5
RISP75PA	.101	.254	.538	1

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs89PA	.150	.301	.585	3
1 Out73PA	.145	.355	.656	2
2 Outs92PA	.122	.305	.577	2

Count

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0-028PA	.111	.370	.656	0
1-019PA	.263	.421	.579	1
0-117PA	.187	.312	.430	1
2-04PA	1.250	2.000	2.750	1
0-223PA	—	.087	.174	0
3-07PA	—	—	1.000	0
1-234PA	—	.030	.060	0
2-234PA	—	.147	.294	0
3-247PA	.118	.265	.626	1

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. vs RHP · Away · Night · Sat.