Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

22.1%

+352

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Jack Leiter (1.42 HR/9) · park 91

Batting #2Confirmed lineup

2+ RBI

16.2%

+519

RBI 1+

39.1%

+156

Hits 1+

62.8%

-169

Hits 2+

20.6%

+385

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

36.1%

95% CI · 35.5–36.6%

+177

Fair odds

1st AB

10.9%

Through AB2

20.3%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park-9%
Temp+5%
vs SP+1%
Lineup+3%
Contact+25%
SP Contact+4%
Statcast+23%
SP Statcast+2%

🎯 Early-AB cues

·93F game
·Big bats hitting behind
·Elite batted-ball profile (away) — Pull/Hard/FB/HR-FB above league
·Elite Statcast power (barrel%/EV/bat speed above league)

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0625 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)+1% (×1.01) · blended_proj

Park-9% (×0.91)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp+5% (×1.05)

Lineup+3% (×1.03)

Contact (batted-ball)+25% (×1.25)

Statcast (barrel/EV)+23% (×1.23)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)+4% (×1.04)

SP Statcast allowed+2% (×1.02)

Discipline-1% (×0.99)

HR Odds History

Price range · 18 games

Now

+270

High

+580

Low

+190

Med

+308

Avg

+347

+270

Low +190High +580

BUILDING HISTORY

No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.

HR Winners — odds that cashed

No priced HR games in the tracked window yet.

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-07-16 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

14.2

Proj PA

197

HR / PA

.072

ISO

.311

wOBA

.388

wRC+

149

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Away2026-07-16 · FG

Season

HR/FB

20.2

Hard%

39.1

FB%

55.1

Pull%

51.6

Soft%

19.1

GB%

31.1

vs LHP

HR/FB

13.8

Hard%

49.2

FB%

47.5

Pull%

52.5

Soft%

8.2

GB%

34.4

vs RHP

HR/FB

22.1

Hard%

35.4

FB%

57.9

Pull%

51.2

Soft%

23.2

GB%

29.9

Home

HR/FB

21.5

Hard%

39.2

FB%

54.2

Pull%

55.0

Soft%

20.8

GB%

30.0

🐾Away

HR/FB

18.6

Hard%

39.0

FB%

56.2

Pull%

47.6

Soft%

17.1

GB%

32.4

🐾 = split that matches tonight (Away). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

5.0 🐾

ELITE BIG DAWG ENERGY

Globe Life Field suppresses HRs (91)
Elite power: .326 ISO
18.9% barrel rate — top-tier loud contact
Crushes 2/3 of SP's top pitches (FF, SL)
Historical sweet spot in the order: #1 (69% of career HRs)
Hot streak: 1.300 OPS over last 15 days
94°F — ball flies in warm air
Park drag (91)
Elite barrel% (18.9)
High barrels/PA (12.4%)
Pitcher high contact-quality allowed (10.0% brl)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.366↑ vs season .24545 PA · 15d

OPS

1.300

ISO

.512

RBI

K-BB

10-4

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	HR	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-16	@ TEX	4	1	0	0	1	0	.250
06-15	@ TEX	4	1	1	1	0	2	1.000
💣 398ft · 103.4 EV · Cutter
06-14	vs STL	5	3	0	1	0	2	.800
06-13	vs STL	4	2	1	1	0	2	1.250
💣 420ft · 106.5 EV · 4-Seamer
06-12	vs STL	3	3	1	1	1	0	2.667
💣 425ft · 108.5 EV · Slider
06-11	@ DET	3	0	0	0	0	0	—
06-10	@ DET	4	2	1	3	1	0	1.250
💣 413ft · 107.0 EV · Changeup
06-09	@ DET	5	1	1	1	0	4	.800
💣 428ft · 111.9 EV · 4-Seamer

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾FF4-Seam Fastball79PA	.377	.397	32.7	66.0	57	25.9
🐾SLSlider38PA	.454	.382	24.0	40.0	68	32.9
🐾CHChangeup36PA	.147	.287	14.3	42.9	67	41.8
🐾FCCutter26PA	.625	.422	22.2	44.4	72	34.1

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	.272	.405	46.7	80.0	67	17.8	128	24
vs RHP	.442	.395	26.5	61.8	53	26.5	163	60

SLSlider

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	.500	.164	25.0	25.0	75	45.5	128	6
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHES	.445	.423	23.8	42.9	67	28.6	163	33

CHChangeup

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES	.166	.367	11.1	44.4	72	35.3	128	27
vs RHP	.100	.080	33.3	33.3	33	53.6	163	10

FCCutter

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	.428	.432	20.0	60.0	80	26.7	128	8
vs RHP	.706	.418	23.1	38.5	69	32.1	163	18

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

vs LHB

🐾vs RHB

vs SHB

Globe Life Field. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Buxton.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Tonight: Batting #2Confirmed5 of 42 HRs · 12%

🐾 Hottest from spot #1 — 29 of 42 career HRs (69%).

🐾

Hot spots:#1

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast. 🐾 jade outline = tonight's spot.

Season Statcast

ISO

.326

Barrel %

18.9

Hard Hit %

49.7

Pull % (HRs)

xwOBA

.350

xBA

.245

Brl / PA %

12.40

Max EV (mph)

111.9

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

108.2

Avg EV on HRs

103.7

Avg HR Distance (ft)

392

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

0/17

Crushed (105+ mph)

8/17

Avg LA on HRs

31.9°

Brl / PA %

12.40

Sampled across 17 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Jack Leiter · top 3 pitches tonight

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

🐾 HIGH EXPLOIT

FF4-Seam Fastball
Use%
39
xwOBA
.397
Whiff%
25.9
HH%
66.0
BRL%
32.7
Pull%
57
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.
SLSlider
Use%
18
xwOBA
.382
Whiff%
32.9
HH%
40.0
BRL%
24.0
Pull%
68
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.
CHChangeup
Use%
18
xwOBA
.287
Whiff%
41.8
HH%
42.9
BRL%
14.3
Pull%
67

Career vs Jack Leiter

🐾 Tonight's matchup

1.000AVG · small sample (3 PA)

OPS

4.000

RBI

K-BB

0-1

Jack Leiter arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
FF4-Seam Fastball	38.5	12.7	42.1	52	.319	16.9
SLSlider	18.2	13.5	51.4	62	.354	26.0
CHChangeup	17.5	11.8	34.7	69	.317	18.4
FCCutter⚡ PUT-AWAY	10.1	3.7	34.6	52	.359	34.8

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball39% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	16.7	41.7	48	.338	21.1	72
vs RHB	6.5	48.4	58	.291	15.3	47

SLSlider18% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	19.0	52.4	67	.368	23.7	34
vs RHB	6.2	50.0	56	.317	30.2	33

CHChangeup18% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	11.4	37.1	74	.383	12.1	49
vs RHB	12.5	37.5	56	.205	26.1	28

FCCutter⚡ PUT-AWAY10% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	5.0	35.0	65	.399	35.3	29
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	0.0	28.6	14	.259	33.3	11

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 34.8% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #5 (xwOBA .585). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (TEX)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Globe Life Field (329/407/326 ft) · elev 591ft

17 HRs this season

vs RHP 14vs LHP 3

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

FF🐾4-Seam Fastball5

SLSlider4

SISinker3

FCCutter3

CUCurveball1

STSweeper1

Bats R · Pull side: LF

HR Drought — when he's due

HR Drought

games since last HR

PAs since last HR

Homers about every 1.6 games · 7 PA (5 HR in 8 G)

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
vs RHP204PA	.373	.643	.976	17.9%	19
vs LHP79PA	.205	.493	.835	25.5%	4

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Home137PA	.385	.713	1.114	21.6%	13
🐾Away146PA	.272	.500	.774	18.4%	10

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Day116PA	.105	.324	.608	11.8%	2
Night167PA	.477	.791	1.162	25.7%	21

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty77PA	.188	.449	.787	2
Runners On108PA	.245	.479	.803	7
RISP57PA	.146	.292	.555	2

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs120PA	.496	.835	1.202	17
1 Out84PA	.247	.562	.955	4
2 Outs79PA	.128	.257	.485	2

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. Away · Day · Thu.