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Byron BuxtonRHB
MIN
📅 Tomorrow12:10 PM MT · Target Field
Showing tomorrow's slate. Projections and lineups will refine as the slate locks in.
Home Run
21.8%
+358
🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾
Big Dawg Energy
vs Matthew Liberatore (LHP) (1.50 HR/9) · park 94
2+ RBI
16.0%
+525
RBI 1+
38.9%
+157
Hits 1+
61.4%
-159
Hits 2+
19.3%
+418
FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo
30k iter
31.1%
95% CI · 30.6–31.6%
+222
Fair odds
1st AB
8.8%
Through AB2
16.7%
Best window
Early
What shifted the projection
  • Park-6%
  • vs SP-2%
  • Contact+25%
  • SP Contact-3%
  • Statcast+22%
  • SP Statcast+1%
🎯 Early-AB cuesvs Matthew Liberatore (LHP)
  • ·Elite batted-ball profile (home) — Pull/Hard/FB/HR-FB above league
  • ·Elite Statcast power (barrel%/EV/bat speed above league)
▸Model inputs
Base HR/PA0.0618 · blended_3sys
TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00
Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant
vs SP (HR/9)-2% (×0.98) · blended_proj
Park-6% (×0.94)
Wind0% (×1.00)
Temp0% (×1.00)
Lineup0% (×1.00)
Contact (batted-ball)+25% (×1.25)
Statcast (barrel/EV)+22% (×1.22)
Pitch match0% (×1.00)
SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)
SP contact (batted-ball)-3% (×0.97)
SP Statcast allowed+1% (×1.01)
Discipline-0% (×1.00)
HR Odds History
Price range · 14 games
Now
+360
High
+505
Low
+250
Med
+345
Avg
+362
+360
Low +250High +505
BUILDING HISTORY

No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.

Recent — tap a game

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)
Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)
2026-06-12 · THE BAT X
Proj HR (RoS)
21.1
Proj PA
324
HR / PA
.065
ISO
.290
wOBA
.379
wRC+
141
2026 Contact Profile
🐾 Tonight: Home2026-06-12 · FG
Season
HR/FB
20.6
Hard%
38.0
FB%
56.7
Pull%
50.9
Soft%
19.3
GB%
28.7
🐾vs LHP
HR/FB
8.3
Hard%
43.8
FB%
50.0
Pull%
52.1
Soft%
8.3
GB%
27.1
vs RHP
HR/FB
24.7
Hard%
35.8
FB%
59.4
Pull%
50.4
Soft%
23.6
GB%
29.3
🐾Home
HR/FB
22.4
Hard%
38.9
FB%
54.4
Pull%
53.3
Soft%
21.1
GB%
27.8
Away
HR/FB
18.8
Hard%
37.0
FB%
59.3
Pull%
48.1
Soft%
17.3
GB%
29.6

🐾 = split that matches tonight (vs LHP, Home). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick
5.0 🐾
ELITE BIG DAWG ENERGY
  • Elite power: .303 ISO
  • 18.1% barrel rate — top-tier loud contact
  • Historical sweet spot in the order: #1 (69% of career HRs)
  • Hot streak: .990 OPS over last 15 days
  • Elite barrel% (18.1)
  • High barrels/PA (11.9%)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days
🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup
.293↑ vs season .23745 PA · 15d
OPS
.990
ISO
.341
HR
4
RBI
6
K-BB
11-4
Game Log · Last 8
DateOppABHHRRBIBBKSLG
06-12vs STL3311102.667
06-11@ DET300000—
06-10@ DET4213101.250
💣 413ft · 107.0 EV · Changeup
06-09@ DET511104.800
💣 428ft · 111.9 EV · 4-Seamer
06-05vs KC100000—
06-04vs KC4211101.250
💣 430ft · 109.6 EV · Sinker
06-03vs CHW400000—
06-02vs CHW410001.250
vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB. Metrics are this hitter's vs LHP split.

PitchISOxwOBABRL%HH%Pull%Whiff%
🐾FFvL22PA.150.36042.978.66414.3
🐾SLvL6PA.500.16425.025.07545.5
🐾CUvL6PA.166.2180.040.010014.3
🐾CHvL26PA.174.37611.841.27134.7
Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP
FF4-Seam Fastball
SplitISOxwOBABRL%HH%Pull%Whiff%wRC+PA
vs LHPTONIGHT.150.36042.978.66414.310522
vs RHP.470.38829.061.35526.115157
SLSlider
SplitISOxwOBABRL%HH%Pull%Whiff%wRC+PA
vs LHPTONIGHT.500.16425.025.07545.51056
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHES.346.37020.040.07029.915130
CUCurveball
SplitISOxwOBABRL%HH%Pull%Whiff%wRC+PA
vs LHPTONIGHT.166.2180.040.010014.31056
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHES.500.35216.783.31008.31516
CHChangeup
SplitISOxwOBABRL%HH%Pull%Whiff%wRC+PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHESTONIGHT.174.37611.841.27134.710526
vs RHP.100.13633.333.33355.615111
Ballpark — Tonight's Venue
vs LHB
107
🐾vs RHB
94
vs SHB
100

Target Field. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Buxton.

HR by Lineup Spot
🐾 Hottest from spot #1 — 29 of 42 career HRs (69%).
29
1
🐾
5
2
·
6
3
·
4
·
1
5
·
6
·
1
7
·
8
·
9
·
Hot spots:#1

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast.

Season Statcast
ISO
.303
Barrel %
18.1
Hard Hit %
46.8
Pull % (HRs)
88
xwOBA
.338
xBA
.237
Brl / PA %
11.90
Max EV (mph)
111.9
Exit Velocity Profile
Max EV (mph)
108.2
Avg EV on HRs
103.7
Avg HR Distance (ft)
392
HRs in sample
17
No-doubters (110+ mph)
0/17
Crushed (105+ mph)
8/17
Avg LA on HRs
31.9°
Brl / PA %
11.90

Sampled across 17 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup
Matthew Liberatore · top 3 pitches tonightvs LHP split
🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾
Neutral matchup
  • FF4-Seam Fastballvs LHP
    Use%
    33
    xwOBA
    .360
    Whiff%
    14.3
    HH%
    78.6
    BRL%
    42.9
    Pull%
    64
  • SLSlidervs LHP
    Use%
    22
    xwOBA
    .164
    Whiff%
    45.5
    HH%
    25.0
    BRL%
    25.0
    Pull%
    75
  • CUCurveballvs LHP
    Use%
    16
    xwOBA
    .218
    Whiff%
    14.3
    HH%
    40.0
    BRL%
    0.0
    Pull%
    100
Matthew Liberatore (LHP) arsenal (Top 3)
PitchUse%BRL%-AHH%-APull%xwOBAPut%
FF33.110.747.948.4389.5
SL⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT22.314.943.562.29328.0
CU15.87.733.354.20819.2
CH15.04.832.567.38610.5
Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB
FF4-Seam Fastball33% use
SplitBRL%-AHH%-APull%xwOBAPut%PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT16.758.342.61313.619
vs RHB9.547.649.4059.182
SLSlider⚡ PUT-AWAY22% use
SplitBRL%-AHH%-APull%xwOBAPut%PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT20.048.060.33233.340
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY9.140.964.26126.046
CUCurveball16% use
SplitBRL%-AHH%-APull%xwOBAPut%PA
vs LHBno sample
vs RHB9.136.455.20021.428
CHChangeup15% use
SplitBRL%-AHH%-APull%xwOBAPut%PA
vs LHBno sample
vs RHB4.831.067.38615.049

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 28.0% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap
🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal
Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

.25.45.46.28.58🐾.43.48.32.26
🐾 Hottest zone: #5 (xwOBA .585). Hover any cell for detail.
Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.
Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)
🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (MIN)
CFLFRF339ft411ft328ftFFSIFFFFSLSIFCSLCUFCSIFFFCSTSLFFSL
Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.
Overlay: Target Field (339/411/328 ft) · elev 815ft
17 HRs this season
vs RHP 14vs LHP 3
Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)
FF🐾4-Seam Fastball5
SLSlider4
SISinker3
FCCutter3
CUCurveball1
STSweeper1
Bats R · Pull side: LF
Splits — Today's Matchup
Handedness
SplitISOSLGOPSBRL%HR
vs RHP193PA.388.651.97717.7%19
🐾vs LHP72PA.136.409.74223.5%2
Location
SplitISOSLGOPSBRL%HR
🐾Home128PA.380.6901.08120.2%12
Away137PA.265.492.76218.5%9
Time
SplitISOSLGOPSBRL%HR
🐾Day107PA.072.260.52211.3%1
Night158PA.483.8001.17325.0%20
Base State
SplitISOSLGOPSHR
Bases Empty69PA.197.443.7762
Runners On100PA.264.494.8147
RISP52PA.162.302.5712
Outs
SplitISOSLGOPSHR
0 Outs114PA.464.7911.14215
1 Out75PA.266.563.9504
2 Outs76PA.135.269.5062
Count
SplitISOSLGOPSHR
0-037PA.622.9461.2707
1-018PA.412.7651.0982
0-121PA.190.571.9521
2-07PA.8571.1431.4292
0-233PA.219.438.6802
3-05PA——1.0000
1-241PA.179.333.5282
2-233PA.151.333.5151
3-236PA—.042.4030

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. vs LHP · Home · Day · Sat.