Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

10.3%

+868

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Randy Vásquez (RHP) (1.30 HR/9) · park 88

2+ RBI

9.7%

+933

RBI 1+

33.2%

+202

Hits 1+

65.5%

-190

Hits 2+

23.4%

+328

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

11.8%

95% CI · 11.4–12.2%

+748

Fair odds

1st AB

3.3%

Through AB2

6.5%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park-12%
Temp+5%
vs SP+10%
Contact-19%
SP Contact+9%
Statcast-9%
SP Statcast+8%

🎯 Early-AB cuesvs Randy Vásquez (RHP)

·90F game
·Soft contact profile (home) — below league
·SP allows hard, pulled fly balls (HR-prone contact)
·Weak Statcast contact (barrel%/EV below league)

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0349 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)+10% (×1.10) · blended_proj

Park-12% (×0.88)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp+5% (×1.05)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)-19% (×0.81)

Statcast (barrel/EV)-9% (×0.91)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)+9% (×1.09)

SP Statcast allowed+8% (×1.08)

Discipline+1% (×1.01)

HR Odds History

Price range · 14 games · 1 HR

Now

+870

High

+1635

Low

+505

Med

+582

Avg

+662

🐾+870

Low +505🐾 HR money zoneHigh +1635

WARMspot score 78

Just below his HR money zone (+560 to +560). Close, not prime.

⚠ Thin sample (1 HR game) — a hint, not a lock.

Recent — tap a game

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-06-13 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

15.1

Proj PA

381

HR / PA

.040

ISO

.195

wOBA

.355

wRC+

127

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Home2026-06-13 · FG

Season

HR/FB

4.1

Hard%

35.4

FB%

39.2

Pull%

31.2

Soft%

12.7

GB%

39.7

vs LHP

HR/FB

4.8

Hard%

31.4

FB%

41.2

Pull%

33.3

Soft%

5.9

GB%

37.3

🐾vs RHP

HR/FB

3.8

Hard%

37.0

FB%

38.4

Pull%

30.4

Soft%

15.2

GB%

40.6

🐾Home

HR/FB

0.0

Hard%

32.4

FB%

36.9

Pull%

27.0

Soft%

13.5

GB%

37.8

Away

HR/FB

8.8

Hard%

40.7

FB%

42.0

Pull%

37.0

Soft%

11.1

GB%

42.0

🐾 = split that matches tonight (vs RHP, Home). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

3.0 🐾

LEAN

Oriole Park at Camden Yards suppresses HRs (88)
Crushes 2/3 of SP's top pitches (FF, SI)
Historical sweet spot in the order: #3 (38% of career HRs)
90°F — ball flies in warm air
Park drag (88)
Pitcher high contact-quality allowed (13.5% brl)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.288↑ vs season .26167 PA · 15d

OPS

.813

ISO

.077

RBI

K-BB

13-13

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	HR	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-12	vs SD	4	1	0	0	1	1	.250
06-11	vs SEA	2	1	0	0	1	1	.500
06-10	vs SEA	3	1	0	0	2	0	.333
06-09	vs SEA	4	1	0	0	1	0	.250
06-08	vs SEA	3	2	0	0	1	0	.667
06-07	@ TOR	4	1	1	2	0	0	1.000
💣 380ft · 103.9 EV · Splitter
06-06	@ TOR	3	0	0	0	1	3	—
06-05	@ TOR	5	1	0	0	0	3	.200

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB. Metrics are this hitter's vs RHP split.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾FF4-Seam FastballvR73PA	.123	.393	2.7	48.6	35	20.4
🐾FCCuttervR17PA	.214	.393	8.3	41.7	42	18.2
🐾SISinkervR61PA	.085	.394	8.6	48.6	37	4.7
🐾CUCurveballvR12PA	—	.362	0.0	66.7	83	33.3

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES	.167	.474	20.0	33.3	60	8.1	133	24
vs RHPTONIGHT	.123	.393	2.7	48.6	35	20.4	127	73

FCCutter

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	—	.342	0.0	60.0	60	14.3	133	9
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHESTONIGHT	.214	.393	8.3	41.7	42	18.2	127	17

SISinker

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES	—	.463	0.0	36.4	55	8.7	133	17
vs RHPTONIGHT	.085	.394	8.6	48.6	37	4.7	127	61

CUCurveball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHPTONIGHT	—	.362	0.0	66.7	83	33.3	127	12

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

vs LHB

136

🐾vs RHB

vs SHB

112

Oriole Park at Camden Yards. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Ward.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Hottest from spot #3 — 20 of 52 career HRs (38%).

🐾

Hot spots:#3#1#4

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast.

Season Statcast

ISO

.098

Barrel %

4.8

Hard Hit %

41.8

Pull % (HRs)

100

xwOBA

.360

xBA

.261

Brl / PA %

2.80

Max EV (mph)

109.5

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

107.4

Avg EV on HRs

103.7

Avg HR Distance (ft)

390

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

0/2

Crushed (105+ mph)

1/2

Avg LA on HRs

32.5°

Brl / PA %

2.80

Sampled across 2 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Randy Vásquez · top 3 pitches tonightvs RHP split

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

🐾 ELITE EXPLOIT

FF4-Seam Fastballvs RHP
Use%
31
xwOBA
.393
Whiff%
20.4
HH%
48.6
BRL%
2.7
Pull%
35
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.
FCCuttervs RHP
Use%
24
xwOBA
.393
Whiff%
18.2
HH%
41.7
BRL%
8.3
Pull%
42
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.
SISinkervs RHP
Use%
14
xwOBA
.394
Whiff%
4.7
HH%
48.6
BRL%
8.6
Pull%
37
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.

Career vs Randy Vásquez (RHP)

🐾 Tonight's matchup

.333AVG · small sample (3 PA)

OPS

1.666

RBI

K-BB

0-0

Randy Vásquez (RHP) arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
FF4-Seam Fastball	31.1	15.4	45.7	44	.341	14.3
FCCutter	23.7	14.3	42.2	61	.424	13.0
SISinker⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	13.5	16.7	54.5	60	.450	26.5
CUCurveball	11.1	3.8	50.0	73	.356	13.0

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball31% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	12.7	47.3	51	.349	14.6	72
vs RHB	21.7	47.8	26	.328	15.4	36

FCCutter24% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	3.7	33.3	70	.316	14.3	35
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	27.3	54.5	50	.560	9.5	27

SISinker⚡ PUT-AWAY14% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	10.0	40.0	70	.438	31.2	18
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	18.8	56.2	56	.460	20.0	39

CUCurveball11% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	4.8	52.4	67	.330	19.4	30
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	0.0	60.0	100	.473	11.1	8

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 26.5% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #5 (xwOBA .447). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (BAL)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Camden Yards (333/410/318 ft) · elev 36ft

2 HRs this season

vs RHP 1vs LHP 1

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

FF🐾4-Seam Fastball2

Bats R · Pull side: LF

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾vs RHP237PA	.100	.358	.759	4.3%	2
vs LHP85PA	.092	.369	.804	5.7%	1

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Home177PA	.029	.288	.695	0.9%	0
Away145PA	.181	.448	.862	9.4%	3

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Day148PA	.132	.389	.815	5.6%	2
Night174PA	.070	.338	.735	3.9%	1

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty109PA	.069	.310	.704	0
Runners On108PA	.141	.388	.777	2
RISP62PA	.210	.419	.838	2

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs134PA	.083	.352	.762	1
1 Out110PA	.105	.349	.740	1
2 Outs78PA	.114	.393	.829	1

Count

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0-030PA	.066	.433	.800	0
1-020PA	.158	.526	.926	1
0-112PA	—	.417	.833	0
2-07PA	—	.286	.571	0
0-219PA	—	.158	.316	0
3-011PA	—	—	.909	0
1-241PA	.097	.268	.439	1
2-250PA	—	.245	.505	0
3-272PA	.128	.333	.903	0

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. vs RHP · Home · Day · Sat.