Showing tomorrow's slate. Projections and lineups will refine as the slate locks in.
Home Run
16.7%
+499
🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾
vs TBD (1.20 HR/9) · park 99
2+ RBI
13.2%
+659
RBI 1+
36.3%
+175
Hits 1+
66.2%
-196
Hits 2+
24.1%
+315
FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo
30k iter29.4%
95% CI · 28.9–29.9%
+240
Fair odds
1st AB
7.7%
Through AB2
15.4%
Best window
Early
What shifted the projection
- Park-1%
- Temp+5%
- Contact+23%
- Statcast+24%
🎯 Early-AB cues
- ·90F game
- ·Elite batted-ball profile (away) — Pull/Hard/FB/HR-FB above league
- ·Elite Statcast power (barrel%/EV/bat speed above league)
▸Model inputs
Base HR/PA0.0481 · blended_3sys
TTO rampconstant
Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant
vs SP (HR/9)0% (×1.00) · no_pitcher
Park-1% (×0.99)
Wind0% (×1.00)
Temp+5% (×1.05)
Lineup0% (×1.00)
Contact (batted-ball)+23% (×1.23)
Statcast (barrel/EV)+24% (×1.24)
Pitch match0% (×1.00)
SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)
SP contact (batted-ball)0% (×1.00)
SP Statcast allowed0% (×1.00)
Discipline+0% (×1.00)
HR Odds History
Price range · 14 games · 1 HR
Now
+500
High
+660
Low
+275
Med
+438
Avg
+432
🐾+500
Low +275🐾 HR money zoneHigh +660
🐾 PRIME+ SPOTspot score 100
Even shorter than his HR range — likelier than when he's gone yard 1× priced here.
⚠ Thin sample (1 HR game) — a hint, not a lock.
Recent — tap a game
🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.
▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)
Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)
2026-06-12 · THE BAT XProj HR (RoS)
18.8
Proj PA
395
HR / PA
.048
ISO
.217
wOBA
.355
wRC+
125
2026 Contact Profile
🐾 Tonight: Away2026-06-12 · FG
Season
HR/FB
19.8
Hard%
40.5
FB%
48.0
Pull%
36.5
Soft%
15.0
GB%
33.0
vs LHP
HR/FB
16.7
Hard%
43.0
FB%
48.8
Pull%
38.4
Soft%
10.5
GB%
31.4
vs RHP
HR/FB
22.2
Hard%
38.6
FB%
47.4
Pull%
35.1
Soft%
18.4
GB%
34.2
Home
HR/FB
13.2
Hard%
39.2
FB%
39.2
Pull%
36.1
Soft%
17.5
GB%
37.1
🐾Away
HR/FB
24.1
Hard%
41.7
FB%
56.3
Pull%
36.9
Soft%
12.6
GB%
29.1
🐾 = split that matches tonight (Away). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).
Why this pick
5.0 🐾ELITE BIG DAWG ENERGY
- Elite power: .286 ISO
- 14.5% barrel rate — top-tier loud contact
- 53.5% hard-hit — punisher
- Historical sweet spot in the order: #4 (58% of career HRs)
- Hot streak: .973 OPS over last 15 days
- 90°F — ball flies in warm air
- Elite barrel% (14.5)
- High barrels/PA (9.7%)
Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.
Last 15 Days
🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup
.306↑ vs season .26553 PA · 15d
OPS
.973
ISO
.327
HR
5
RBI
7
K-BB
12-3
Game Log · Last 8
| Date | Opp | AB | H | HR | RBI | BB | K | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-12 | @ NYM | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | .800 |
| 06-10 | @ CHW | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | .333 |
| 06-09 | @ CHW | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2.000 |
| 💣 402ft · 103.0 EV · Changeup💣 411ft · 103.4 EV · 4-Seamer | ||||||||
| 06-07 | vs PIT | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 06-06 | vs PIT | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | .250 |
| 06-05 | vs PIT | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | .400 |
| 06-04 | vs TOR | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 06-03 | vs TOR | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .750 |
vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4
| Pitch | ISO | xwOBA | BRL% | HH% | Pull% | Whiff% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FF90PA | .329 | .426 | 20.0 | 62.5 | 55 | 23.4 |
| SI56PA | .298 | .405 | 16.7 | 51.3 | 50 | 17.0 |
| SL31PA | .387 | .391 | 13.6 | 70.0 | 36 | 34.3 |
| FC29PA | .240 | .364 | 8.3 | 52.4 | 58 | 20.3 |
Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP
FF4-Seam Fastball
| Split | ISO | xwOBA | BRL% | HH% | Pull% | Whiff% | wRC+ | PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs LHP | .281 | .309 | 4.5 | 54.5 | 50 | 23.1 | 136 | 36 |
| vs RHP🐾 CRUSHES | .449 | .501 | 28.9 | 68.4 | 58 | 15.7 | 152 | 59 |
SISinker
| Split | ISO | xwOBA | BRL% | HH% | Pull% | Whiff% | wRC+ | PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs LHP | .258 | .418 | 15.4 | 57.7 | 42 | 12.9 | 136 | 37 |
| vs RHP | .316 | .385 | 18.8 | 37.5 | 63 | 0.0 | 152 | 22 |
SLSlider
| Split | ISO | xwOBA | BRL% | HH% | Pull% | Whiff% | wRC+ | PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs LHP | .200 | .308 | 10.0 | 70.0 | 50 | 41.9 | 136 | 15 |
| vs RHP🐾 CRUSHES | .473 | .469 | 16.7 | 58.3 | 25 | 24.4 | 152 | 19 |
FCCutter
| Split | ISO | xwOBA | BRL% | HH% | Pull% | Whiff% | wRC+ | PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs LHP | .143 | .354 | 8.3 | 58.3 | 42 | 13.6 | 136 | 16 |
| vs RHP | .250 | .374 | 8.3 | 41.7 | 75 | 19.1 | 152 | 18 |
Ballpark — Tonight's Venue
🐾vs LHB
99
vs RHB
111
vs SHB
105
Citi Field. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Olson.
HR by Lineup Spot
🐾 Hottest from spot #4 — 26 of 45 career HRs (58%).
1
·
14
2
🐾
5
3
·
26
4
🐾
5
·
6
·
7
·
8
·
9
·
Hot spots:#4#2
Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast.
Season Statcast
ISO
.286
Barrel %
14.5
Hard Hit %
53.5
Pull % (HRs)
75
xwOBA
.378
xBA
.265
Brl / PA %
9.70
Max EV (mph)
111.6
Exit Velocity Profile
Max EV (mph)
111.6
Avg EV on HRs
107.1
Avg HR Distance (ft)
411
HRs in sample
16
No-doubters (110+ mph)
2/16
Crushed (105+ mph)
11/16
Avg LA on HRs
28.3°
Brl / PA %
9.70
Sampled across 16 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.
Strike Zone Heatmap
🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal
🐾 Hottest zone: #5 (xwOBA .516). Hover any cell for detail.
Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.
Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)
🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (NYM)
Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.
Overlay: Citi Field (335/408/330 ft) · elev 33ft
16 HRs this season
vs RHP 12vs LHP 4
Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)
FF🐾4-Seam Fastball7
SISinker3
SLSlider2
FCCutter1
STSweeper1
CHChangeup1
SVSlurve1
Bats L · Pull side: RF
Splits — Today's Matchup
Handedness
| Split | ISO | SLG | OPS | BRL% | HR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs RHP177PA | .288 | .564 | .914 | 17.7% | 12 |
| vs LHP127PA | .298 | .561 | .892 | 12.1% | 8 |
Location
| Split | ISO | SLG | OPS | BRL% | HR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home138PA | .187 | .453 | .757 | 11.2% | 5 |
| 🐾Away166PA | .387 | .662 | 1.035 | 19.4% | 15 |
Time
| Split | ISO | SLG | OPS | BRL% | HR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🐾Day83PA | .219 | .438 | .751 | 13.1% | 3 |
| Night221PA | .320 | .609 | .962 | 16.2% | 17 |
Base State
| Split | ISO | SLG | OPS | HR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bases Empty113PA | .279 | .577 | .931 | 8 |
| Runners On143PA | .276 | .520 | .849 | 9 |
| RISP79PA | .187 | .406 | .735 | 2 |
Outs
| Split | ISO | SLG | OPS | HR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 Outs90PA | .383 | .642 | .964 | 8 |
| 1 Out103PA | .237 | .495 | .806 | 5 |
| 2 Outs111PA | .271 | .563 | .950 | 7 |
Count
| Split | ISO | SLG | OPS | HR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-029PA | .379 | .793 | 1.207 | 2 |
| 1-012PA | .583 | 1.083 | 1.583 | 2 |
| 0-115PA | .066 | .333 | .600 | 0 |
| 2-012PA | 1.000 | 1.417 | 1.833 | 4 |
| 0-221PA | .239 | .429 | .619 | 1 |
| 3-014PA | .600 | 1.000 | 1.786 | 1 |
| 1-254PA | .154 | .308 | .456 | 2 |
| 2-249PA | .146 | .292 | .455 | 1 |
| 3-262PA | .250 | .562 | 1.030 | 3 |
🐾 = the split that matches tonight. Away · Day · Sat.