Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

12.1%

+725

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Landen Roupp (RHP) (0.49 HR/9) · park 100

Batting #3Projected lineup

2+ RBI

10.7%

+837

RBI 1+

34.1%

+194

Hits 1+

65.5%

-190

Hits 2+

23.4%

+328

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

21.4%

95% CI · 21.0–21.9%

+367

Fair odds

1st AB

4.3%

Through AB2

8.4%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Wind+15%
vs SP-33%
Contact+7%
SP Contact-11%
Statcast+24%
SP Statcast-7%

🎯 Early-AB cuesvs Landen Roupp (RHP)

·SP suppresses HRs (blended_proj)
·20 mph wind out to OF
·Elite Statcast power (barrel%/EV/bat speed above league)

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0482 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)-33% (×0.67) · blended_proj

Park0% (×1.00)

Wind+15% (×1.15)

Temp0% (×1.00)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)+7% (×1.07)

Statcast (barrel/EV)+24% (×1.24)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)-11% (×0.89)

SP Statcast allowed-7% (×0.93)

Discipline+0% (×1.00)

HR Odds History

Price range · 18 games

Now

+430

High

+855

Low

+275

Med

+598

Avg

+541

+430

Low +275High +855

BUILDING HISTORY

No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.

HR Winners — odds that cashed

No priced HR games in the tracked window yet.

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-07-16 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

15.8

Proj PA

290

HR / PA

.054

ISO

.238

wOBA

.360

wRC+

127

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Home2026-07-16 · FG

Season

HR/FB

19.4

Hard%

40.7

FB%

46.9

Pull%

38.2

Soft%

15.6

GB%

35.6

vs LHP

HR/FB

16.4

Hard%

40.2

FB%

45.1

Pull%

37.7

Soft%

12.3

GB%

36.1

🐾vs RHP

HR/FB

21.6

Hard%

41.2

FB%

48.4

Pull%

38.6

Soft%

18.3

GB%

35.3

🐾Home

HR/FB

16.4

Hard%

40.2

FB%

41.7

Pull%

40.2

Soft%

16.7

GB%

38.6

Away

HR/FB

21.6

Hard%

41.3

FB%

51.7

Pull%

36.4

Soft%

14.7

GB%

32.9

🐾 = split that matches tonight (vs RHP, Home). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

3.0 🐾

LEAN

Landen Roupp stingy: only 0.49 HR/9
Elite power: .276 ISO
14.4% barrel rate — top-tier loud contact
52.3% hard-hit — punisher
Crushes 1/3 of SP's top pitches (SI)
Historical sweet spot in the order: #4 (58% of career HRs)
20 mph wind — check direction relative to spray
78% rain — delay/cancel risk
Elite barrel% (14.4)
High barrels/PA (9.7%)
Pitcher suppresses HR (0.49 HR/9)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.333↑ vs season .26152 PA · 15d

OPS

.886

ISO

.188

RBI

K-BB

12-3

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	HR	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-17	vs SF	5	3	0	0	0	0	.600
06-16	vs SF	3	1	0	0	1	1	.333
06-14	@ NYM	4	1	0	0	0	1	.250
06-13	@ NYM	4	1	0	0	0	1	.250
06-12	@ NYM	5	1	1	1	0	2	.800
💣 399ft · 102.1 EV · Sinker
06-10	@ CHW	3	1	0	0	1	1	.333
06-09	@ CHW	4	2	2	3	1	0	2.000
💣 402ft · 103.0 EV · Changeup💣 411ft · 103.4 EV · 4-Seamer
06-07	vs PIT	4	0	0	0	0	0	—

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB. Metrics are this hitter's vs RHP split.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾SISinkervR24PA	.285	.351	17.6	35.3	59	—
🐾CUCurveballvR16PA	.067	.209	0.0	35.7	71	15.8
🐾CHChangeupvR27PA	.269	.285	10.5	47.4	63	18.0
🐾FCCuttervR18PA	.250	.373	8.3	41.7	75	20.4

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

SISinker

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES	.333	.422	17.9	57.1	46	13.8	144	39
vs RHPTONIGHT	.285	.351	17.6	35.3	59	0.0	144	24

CUCurveball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	—	.233	20.0	40.0	100	35.7	144	6
vs RHPTONIGHT	.067	.209	0.0	35.7	71	15.8	144	16

CHChangeup

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHPTONIGHT	.269	.285	10.5	47.4	63	18.0	144	27

FCCutter

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	.133	.333	7.7	53.8	46	16.7	144	17
vs RHPTONIGHT	.250	.373	8.3	41.7	75	20.4	144	18

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

🐾vs LHB

100

vs RHB

vs SHB

Truist Park. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Olson.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Tonight: Batting #3Projected5 of 45 HRs · 11%

🐾 Hottest from spot #4 — 26 of 45 career HRs (58%).

🐾

Hot spots:#4#2

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast. 🐾 jade outline = tonight's spot.

Season Statcast

ISO

.276

Barrel %

14.4

Hard Hit %

52.3

Pull % (HRs)

xwOBA

.370

xBA

.261

Brl / PA %

9.70

Max EV (mph)

111.6

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

111.6

Avg EV on HRs

107.1

Avg HR Distance (ft)

411

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

2/16

Crushed (105+ mph)

11/16

Avg LA on HRs

28.3°

Brl / PA %

9.70

Sampled across 16 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Landen Roupp · top 3 pitches tonightvs RHP split

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Tough matchup

SISinkervs RHP
Use%
37
xwOBA
.351
Whiff%
0.0
HH%
35.3
BRL%
17.6
Pull%
59
CUCurveballvs RHP
Use%
28
xwOBA
.209
Whiff%
15.8
HH%
35.7
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
71
⚠ Struggles against this pitch in 16 PA this season.
CHChangeupvs RHP
Use%
19
xwOBA
.285
Whiff%
18.0
HH%
47.4
BRL%
10.5
Pull%
63

Career vs Landen Roupp (RHP)

🐾 Tonight's matchup

.500AVG · small sample (2 PA)

OPS

1.000

RBI

K-BB

1-0

Landen Roupp (RHP) arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
SISinker	36.5	7.7	36.9	58	.355	19.3
CUCurveball⚡ PUT-AWAY	27.6	2.3	16.3	80	.217	29.6
CHChangeup	19.2	0.0	26.2	71	.291	14.3
FCCutter	13.1	4.5	33.3	50	.295	21.9

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

SISinker37% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	4.8	35.7	60	.373	25.0	70
vs RHB	10.2	36.7	57	.332	11.6	57

CUCurveball⚡ PUT-AWAY28% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	5.6	33.3	100	.238	33.3	44
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	0.0	7.7	65	.202	27.7	54

CHChangeup19% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	0.0	33.3	78	.304	14.3	52
vs RHB	0.0	0.0	38	.242	12.9	13

FCCutter13% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	10.0	40.0	70	.341	29.4	16
vs RHB	0.0	33.3	33	.245	17.6	15

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 29.6% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #5 (xwOBA .516). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (ATL)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Truist Park (335/400/325 ft) · elev 1057ft

16 HRs this season

vs RHP 12vs LHP 4

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

FF🐾4-Seam Fastball7

SISinker3

SLSlider2

FCCutter1

STSweeper1

CHChangeup1

SVSlurve1

Bats L · Pull side: RF

HR Drought — when he's due

HR Drought🐾 DUE — overdue

games since last HR

PAs since last HR

Homers about every 2.7 games · 12 PA (3 HR in 8 G)

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾vs RHP181PA	.281	.556	.904	17.2%	12
vs LHP140PA	.270	.548	.891	11.9%	8

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Home147PA	.177	.456	.776	10.7%	5
Away174PA	.367	.640	1.008	18.8%	15

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Day91PA	.198	.420	.728	11.9%	3
🐾Night230PA	.307	.605	.966	16.0%	17

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty119PA	.266	.560	.913	8
Runners On149PA	.264	.512	.841	9
RISP80PA	.184	.415	.753	2

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs97PA	.352	.636	.976	8
1 Out109PA	.225	.490	.811	5
2 Outs115PA	.260	.540	.914	7

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. vs RHP · Home · Night · Thu.