Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

14.6%

+584

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Griffin Jax (RHP) (1.62 HR/9) · park 85

2+ RBI

12.0%

+731

RBI 1+

35.3%

+183

Hits 1+

63.7%

-175

Hits 2+

21.5%

+365

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

5.3%

95% CI · 5.0–5.5%

+1801

Fair odds

1st AB

1.3%

Through AB2

2.4%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park-15%
vs SP-16%
Contact-13%
SP Contact+12%
Statcast+2%
SP Statcast+2%
Discipline-2%

🎯 Early-AB cuesvs Griffin Jax (RHP)

·SP suppresses HRs (blended_proj)
·Soft contact profile (home) — below league
·SP allows hard, pulled fly balls (HR-prone contact)

⚠ Thin blended HR rate

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0174 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)-16% (×0.84) · blended_proj

Park-15% (×0.85)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp0% (×1.00)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)-13% (×0.87)

Statcast (barrel/EV)+2% (×1.02)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)+12% (×1.12)

SP Statcast allowed+2% (×1.02)

Discipline-2% (×0.98)

HR Odds History

Price range · 10 games

Now

+585

High

+1110

Low

+385

Med

+775

Avg

+773

+585

Low +385High +1110

BUILDING HISTORY

No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.

Recent — tap a game

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-06-12 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

0.8

Proj PA

HR / PA

.016

ISO

.101

wOBA

.274

wRC+

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Home2026-06-12 · FG

Season

HR/FB

0.0

Hard%

31.6

FB%

36.1

Pull%

36.8

Soft%

13.2

GB%

44.4

🐾vs RHP

HR/FB

0.0

Hard%

38.7

FB%

40.0

Pull%

41.9

Soft%

9.7

GB%

40.0

🐾Home

HR/FB

0.0

Hard%

27.8

FB%

47.1

Pull%

50.0

Soft%

5.6

GB%

41.2

Away

HR/FB

0.0

Hard%

35.0

FB%

26.3

Pull%

25.0

Soft%

20.0

GB%

47.4

🐾 = split that matches tonight (vs RHP, Home). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

4.0 🐾

STRONG PLAY

Angel Stadium suppresses HRs (85)
Hot streak: .621 OPS over last 15 days
Park drag (85)
High barrels/PA (6.2%)
Pitcher HR-prone (1.62 HR/9)
Pitcher high contact-quality allowed (10.0% brl)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.250→ vs season .25031 PA · 15d

OPS

.621

ISO

.071

RBI

K-BB

5-2

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	BB	K	SLG
06-10	vs HOU	1	1	0	0	1.000
06-09	vs HOU	0	0	0	0	—
06-08	vs HOU	2	0	1	1	—
06-06	@ LAD	3	0	0	0	—
06-05	@ LAD	3	0	0	2	—
06-03	vs COL	5	1	0	0	.200
06-02	vs COL	4	1	0	1	.500
06-01	vs COL	3	1	1	0	.333

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB. Metrics are this hitter's vs RHP split.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾STSweeper	—	—	—	—	—	—
🐾FF4-Seam FastballvR13PA	—	.223	9.1	36.4	46	16.2
🐾CHChangeup	—	—	—	—	—	—
🐾SISinker	—	—	—	—	—	—

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHPTONIGHT	—	.223	9.1	36.4	46	16.2	90	13

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

🐾vs LHB

vs RHB

127

vs SHB

106

Angel Stadium. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Walton.

Season Statcast

Barrel %

7.5

xBA

.250

Brl / PA %

6.18

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Griffin Jax · top 3 pitches tonightvs RHP split

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Tough matchup

STSweeper
Use%
25
xwOBA
—
Whiff%
—
HH%
—
BRL%
—
Pull%
—
FF4-Seam Fastballvs RHP
Use%
21
xwOBA
.223
Whiff%
16.2
HH%
36.4
BRL%
9.1
Pull%
46
⚠ Struggles against this pitch in 13 PA this season.
CHChangeup
Use%
20
xwOBA
—
Whiff%
—
HH%
—
BRL%
—
Pull%
—

Griffin Jax (RHP) arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
STSweeper	24.9	9.1	38.1	68	.289	22.4
FF4-Seam Fastball	20.6	23.8	47.6	52	.454	14.3
CHChangeup⚡ PUT-AWAY	20.4	3.3	33.3	53	.296	28.2
SISinker	19.6	4.2	41.7	71	.374	21.4

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

STSweeper25% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	12.5	62.5	75	.520	7.7	12
vs RHB	7.1	28.6	64	.209	27.8	26

FF4-Seam Fastball21% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	15.4	38.5	46	.402	16.7	18
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	37.5	62.5	63	.531	11.8	12

CHChangeup⚡ PUT-AWAY20% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	0.0	26.9	46	.299	27.6	36
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	25.0	75.0	100	.278	30.0	7

SISinker20% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	12.5	37.5	63	.310	37.5	13
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	0.0	43.8	75	.417	0.0	20

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 28.2% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #5 (xwOBA .451). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾vs RHP43PA	.075	.350	.676	7.9%	0
vs LHP8PA	—	.143	.286	—	0

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Home25PA	.045	.227	.507	10.0%	0
Away26PA	.080	.400	.720	3.4%	0

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Day11PA	.091	.636	1.181	—	0
🐾Night40PA	.055	.222	.453	9.4%	0

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS
Bases Empty21PA	.095	.381	.667
Runners On19PA	.067	.267	.600
RISP11PA	.111	.333	.697

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS
0 Outs13PA	—	.333	.718
1 Out16PA	.154	.462	.862
2 Outs22PA	.045	.227	.409

Count

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS
0-05PA	—	—	—
1-05PA	.600	1.400	2.200
0-18PA	—	.125	.250
2-01PA	—	—	—
0-28PA	—	.500	1.000
1-28PA	—	—	—
2-210PA	—	—	—
3-28PA	—	.250	.875

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. vs RHP · Home · Night · Sat.