Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

10.5%

+849

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Gage Jump (1.20 HR/9) · park 95

2+ RBI

9.8%

+921

RBI 1+

33.3%

+201

Hits 1+

63.7%

-175

Hits 2+

21.5%

+365

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

5.1%

95% CI · 4.9–5.4%

+1849

Fair odds

1st AB

1.2%

Through AB2

2.4%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park-5%
vs SP-10%
Contact-2%
SP Contact-9%
Statcast+1%
SP Statcast-7%

⚠ Thin blended HR rate

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0158 · blended_3sys

TTO rampconstant

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)-10% (×0.90) · blended_proj

Park-5% (×0.95)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp0% (×1.00)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)-2% (×0.98)

Statcast (barrel/EV)+1% (×1.01)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)-9% (×0.91)

SP Statcast allowed-7% (×0.93)

Discipline-1% (×0.99)

HR Odds History

Price range · 18 games

Now

+850

High

+1060

Low

+505

Med

+762

Avg

+750

+850

Low +505High +1060

BUILDING HISTORY

No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.

HR Winners — odds that cashed

No priced HR games in the tracked window yet.

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-07-16 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

0.1

Proj PA

HR / PA

.020

ISO

.113

wOBA

.279

wRC+

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Away2026-07-16 · FG

Season

HR/FB

11.1

Hard%

32.4

FB%

37.5

Pull%

44.6

Soft%

9.5

GB%

37.5

vs LHP

HR/FB

33.3

Hard%

11.1

FB%

37.5

Pull%

22.2

Soft%

22.2

GB%

50.0

vs RHP

HR/FB

8.3

Hard%

35.4

FB%

37.5

Pull%

47.7

Soft%

7.7

GB%

35.9

Home

HR/FB

8.3

Hard%

27.8

FB%

34.3

Pull%

55.6

Soft%

2.8

GB%

37.1

🐾Away

HR/FB

13.3

Hard%

36.8

FB%

40.5

Pull%

34.2

Soft%

15.8

GB%

37.8

🐾 = split that matches tonight (Away). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

3.0 🐾

LEAN

Hot streak: .988 OPS over last 15 days
14 mph wind — check direction relative to spray
High barrels/PA (6.2%)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.345↑ vs season .25031 PA · 15d

OPS

.988

ISO

.276

RBI

K-BB

4-1

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	HR	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-16	@ ARI	4	2	0	2	0	0	.750
06-15	@ ARI	4	2	1	1	0	1	1.250
💣 401ft · 100.8 EV · 4-Seamer
06-14	vs TB	3	1	1	1	0	0	1.333
💣 386ft · 96.9 EV · Sinker
06-13	vs TB	4	3	0	2	0	0	1.000
06-10	vs HOU	1	1	0	0	0	0	1.000
06-09	vs HOU	0	0	0	0	0	0	—
06-08	vs HOU	2	0	0	0	1	1	—
06-06	@ LAD	3	0	0	0	0	0	—

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾FF4-Seam Fastball19PA	.264	.315	11.8	50.0	53	19.1
🐾SLSlider	—	—	—	—	—	—
🐾CUCurveball	—	—	—	—	—	—
🐾STSweeper	—	—	—	—	—	—

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHP	.264	.332	12.5	50.0	56	14.3	140	19

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

🐾vs LHB

vs RHB

114

vs SHB

104

Sutter Health Park. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Walton.

Season Statcast

Barrel %

7.5

xBA

.250

Brl / PA %

6.18

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Gage Jump · top 3 pitches tonight

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

🐾 LEAN EXPLOIT

FF4-Seam Fastball
Use%
50
xwOBA
.315
Whiff%
19.1
HH%
50.0
BRL%
11.8
Pull%
53
SLSlider
Use%
25
xwOBA
—
Whiff%
—
HH%
—
BRL%
—
Pull%
—
CUCurveball
Use%
9
xwOBA
—
Whiff%
—
HH%
—
BRL%
—
Pull%
—

Gage Jump arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
FF4-Seam Fastball	49.7	3.2	29.0	55	.290	18.2
SLSlider	24.7	5.0	35.0	65	.353	12.5
CUCurveball	9.0	0.0	33.3	50	.216	21.1
STSweeper⚡ PUT-AWAY	7.0	0.0	28.6	86	.212	35.7

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball50% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	0.0	0.0	0	.316	25.0	7
vs RHB	3.7	33.3	63	.285	17.5	36

SLSlider25% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	14.3	57.1	57	.503	—	8
vs RHB	0.0	23.1	69	.282	14.3	17

CUCurveball9% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	no sample
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	0.0	33.3	67	.230	21.4	8

STSweeper⚡ PUT-AWAY7% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	0.0	0.0	80	.133	42.9	8
vs RHB	no sample

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 35.7% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #5 (xwOBA .451). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

HR Drought — when he's due

HR Drought

games since last HR

PAs since last HR

Homers about every 4.0 games · 11 PA (2 HR in 8 G)

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
vs RHP56PA	.151	.491	.866	8.0%	1
vs LHP10PA	.334	.556	.778	—	1

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Home32PA	.172	.448	.792	7.4%	1
🐾Away34PA	.181	.545	.909	5.6%	1

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Day14PA	.286	.786	1.286	—	1
🐾Night52PA	.146	.417	.731	9.3%	1

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty26PA	.192	.538	.884	1
Runners On26PA	.137	.455	.855	0
RISP18PA	.188	.563	1.007	0

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs17PA	.187	.500	.853	1
1 Out18PA	.200	.600	1.071	0
2 Outs31PA	.162	.452	.742	1

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. Away · Night · Thu.