Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

12.5%

+698

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Bryan Woo (0.99 HR/9) · park 92

Batting #4Confirmed lineup

2+ RBI

10.9%

+818

RBI 1+

34.3%

+192

Hits 1+

67.5%

-207

Hits 2+

25.5%

+292

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

23.8%

95% CI · 23.3–24.3%

+321

Fair odds

1st AB

6.2%

Through AB2

12.2%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park-8%
Wind-1%
vs SP-7%
Contact+18%
SP Contact-8%
Statcast+22%
SP Statcast-2%

🎯 Early-AB cues

·Elite batted-ball profile (away) — Pull/Hard/FB/HR-FB above league
·Elite Statcast power (barrel%/EV/bat speed above league)

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0554 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)-7% (×0.93) · blended_proj

Park-8% (×0.92)

Wind-1% (×0.99)

Temp0% (×1.00)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)+18% (×1.18)

Statcast (barrel/EV)+22% (×1.22)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)-8% (×0.92)

SP Statcast allowed-2% (×0.98)

Discipline-1% (×0.99)

HR Odds History

Price range · 18 games

Now

+370

High

+650

Low

+245

Med

+525

Avg

+461

+370

Low +245High +650

BUILDING HISTORY

No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.

HR Winners — odds that cashed

No priced HR games in the tracked window yet.

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-07-16 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

17.4

Proj PA

277

HR / PA

.063

ISO

.263

wOBA

.374

wRC+

142

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Away2026-07-16 · FG

Season

HR/FB

21.6

Hard%

44.4

FB%

37.2

Pull%

37.9

Soft%

8.4

GB%

42.9

vs LHP

HR/FB

12.9

Hard%

41.8

FB%

39.2

Pull%

40.5

Soft%

7.6

GB%

38.0

vs RHP

HR/FB

25.8

Hard%

45.6

FB%

36.3

Pull%

36.8

Soft%

8.8

GB%

45.1

Home

HR/FB

21.8

Hard%

47.1

FB%

39.3

Pull%

37.1

Soft%

5.7

GB%

43.6

🐾Away

HR/FB

21.4

Hard%

41.3

FB%

34.7

Pull%

38.8

Soft%

11.6

GB%

42.1

🐾 = split that matches tonight (Away). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

3.0 🐾

LEAN

T-Mobile Park suppresses HRs (92)
55.7% hard-hit — punisher
Crushes 2/3 of SP's top pitches (FF, SI)
Historical sweet spot in the order: #4 (48% of career HRs)
Hot streak: .952 OPS over last 15 days
Park drag (92)
Elite barrel% (12.3)
High barrels/PA (8.0%)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.294↑ vs season .27362 PA · 15d

OPS

.952

ISO

.255

RBI

K-BB

14-8

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	HR	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-17	@ SEA	4	1	0	0	0	2	.250
06-16	@ SEA	2	0	0	0	1	2	—
06-14	vs SD	3	1	0	0	1	0	.333
06-13	vs SD	5	3	1	2	0	1	1.400
💣 392ft · 104.3 EV · Cutter
06-12	vs SD	1	1	0	2	3	0	1.000
06-11	vs SEA	4	1	1	2	0	1	1.000
💣 439ft · 110.6 EV · Sweeper
06-10	vs SEA	5	2	1	1	0	2	1.000
💣 402ft · 106.5 EV · 4-Seamer
06-09	vs SEA	4	1	0	0	0	0	.250

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾FF4-Seam Fastball80PA	.356	.453	26.7	63.5	40	24.4
🐾SISinker80PA	.162	.393	8.3	63.3	53	16.6
🐾STSweeper29PA	.160	.346	11.1	43.8	44	33.3
🐾SLSlider37PA	.069	.297	4.5	35.0	73	38.0

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	.143	.435	19.0	66.7	62	25.8	80	30
vs RHP	.445	.462	30.8	66.7	28	21.0	138	59

SISinker

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	—	.296	11.1	66.7	33	18.5	80	14
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHES	.190	.411	7.8	62.7	57	15.4	138	69

STSweeper

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHP	.174	.394	13.3	33.3	53	29.2	138	27

SLSlider

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	—	.262	16.7	16.7	83	33.3	80	11
vs RHP	.083	.295	0.0	43.8	69	38.5	138	29

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

vs LHB

108

🐾vs RHB

vs SHB

100

T-Mobile Park. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Alonso.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Tonight: Batting #4Confirmed28 of 58 HRs · 48%

🐾 Hottest from spot #4 — 28 of 58 career HRs (48%).

🐾

Hot spots:#4#3

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast. 🐾 jade outline = tonight's spot.

Season Statcast

ISO

.215

Barrel %

12.3

Hard Hit %

55.7

Pull % (HRs)

xwOBA

.374

xBA

.273

Brl / PA %

8.00

Max EV (mph)

114.6

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

114.6

Avg EV on HRs

106.0

Avg HR Distance (ft)

394

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

1/8

Crushed (105+ mph)

5/8

Avg LA on HRs

27.4°

Brl / PA %

8.00

Sampled across 8 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Bryan Woo · top 3 pitches tonight

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

🐾 ELITE EXPLOIT

FF4-Seam Fastball
Use%
49
xwOBA
.453
Whiff%
24.4
HH%
63.5
BRL%
26.7
Pull%
40
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.
SISinker
Use%
18
xwOBA
.393
Whiff%
16.6
HH%
63.3
BRL%
8.3
Pull%
53
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.
STSweeper
Use%
14
xwOBA
.346
Whiff%
33.3
HH%
43.8
BRL%
11.1
Pull%
44

Career vs Bryan Woo

🐾 Tonight's matchup

.167AVG · small sample (6 PA)

OPS

.834

RBI

K-BB

3-0

Bryan Woo arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
FF4-Seam Fastball	48.9	7.1	42.5	38	.290	17.6
SISinker	18.1	8.5	51.8	56	.345	20.4
STSweeper⚡ PUT-AWAY	13.9	7.7	38.2	69	.257	24.6
SLSlider	12.9	9.1	50.0	59	.254	17.9

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball49% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	7.8	45.5	42	.339	16.0	104
vs RHB	5.6	36.1	31	.196	20.5	53

SISinker18% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	18.8	56.2	56	.397	9.5	20
vs RHB	4.7	51.2	56	.329	25.7	56

STSweeper⚡ PUT-AWAY14% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	16.7	33.3	83	.293	23.1	18
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	3.7	33.3	63	.240	27.1	40

SLSlider13% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	11.1	50.0	56	.234	18.9	30
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	0.0	50.0	75	.405	0.0	4

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 24.6% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #8 (xwOBA .506). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (SEA)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: T-Mobile Park (331/401/326 ft) · elev 17ft

8 HRs this season

vs RHP 6vs LHP 2

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

SI🐾Sinker3

FF🐾4-Seam Fastball3

CUCurveball1

CHChangeup1

Bats R · Pull side: LF

HR Drought — when he's due

HR Drought🐾 DUE

games since last HR

PAs since last HR

Homers about every 2.7 games · 12 PA (3 HR in 8 G)

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
vs RHP235PA	.243	.505	.858	12.5%	13
vs LHP89PA	.148	.370	.662	13.4%	3

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Home176PA	.205	.457	.804	9.1%	9
🐾Away148PA	.227	.477	.801	17.0%	7

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Day149PA	.167	.417	.746	11.2%	5
Night175PA	.258	.510	.853	14.4%	11

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty91PA	.191	.438	.834	4
Runners On161PA	.220	.473	.777	8
RISP95PA	.205	.410	.684	4

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs101PA	.200	.467	.804	5
1 Out105PA	.268	.548	.891	6
2 Outs118PA	.180	.390	.721	5

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. Away · Day · Thu.