Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

17.3%

+479

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Randy Vásquez (RHP) (1.30 HR/9) · park 88

2+ RBI

13.5%

+641

RBI 1+

36.6%

+173

Hits 1+

67.3%

-206

Hits 2+

25.3%

+295

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

32.4%

95% CI · 31.8–32.9%

+209

Fair odds

1st AB

9.6%

Through AB2

18.7%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park-12%
Temp+5%
vs SP+10%
Contact+20%
SP Contact+9%
Statcast+23%
SP Statcast+8%

🎯 Early-AB cuesvs Randy Vásquez (RHP)

·90F game
·Elite batted-ball profile (home) — Pull/Hard/FB/HR-FB above league
·SP allows hard, pulled fly balls (HR-prone contact)
·Elite Statcast power (barrel%/EV/bat speed above league)

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0549 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)+10% (×1.10) · blended_proj

Park-12% (×0.88)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp+5% (×1.05)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)+20% (×1.20)

Statcast (barrel/EV)+23% (×1.23)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)+9% (×1.09)

SP Statcast allowed+8% (×1.08)

Discipline+0% (×1.00)

HR Odds History

Price range · 14 games · 3 HR

Now

+480

High

+950

Low

+340

Med

+488

Avg

+506

🐾🐾🐾+480

Low +340🐾 HR money zoneHigh +950

🐾 PRIME SPOTspot score 100

Tonight's price is in his money zone — he's gone yard 3× priced here.

Recent — tap a game

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-06-13 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

23.3

Proj PA

389

HR / PA

.060

ISO

.253

wOBA

.372

wRC+

139

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Home2026-06-13 · FG

Season

HR/FB

19.2

Hard%

45.1

FB%

38.6

Pull%

35.1

Soft%

5.0

GB%

43.1

vs LHP

HR/FB

12.0

Hard%

37.3

FB%

42.4

Pull%

37.3

Soft%

5.1

GB%

37.3

🐾vs RHP

HR/FB

22.6

Hard%

48.3

FB%

37.1

Pull%

34.3

Soft%

4.9

GB%

45.5

🐾Home

HR/FB

19.0

Hard%

46.4

FB%

38.2

Pull%

37.3

Soft%

2.7

GB%

45.5

Away

HR/FB

19.4

Hard%

44.1

FB%

38.7

Pull%

33.3

Soft%

7.5

GB%

40.9

🐾 = split that matches tonight (vs RHP, Home). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

5.0 🐾

ELITE BIG DAWG ENERGY

Oriole Park at Camden Yards suppresses HRs (88)
55.9% hard-hit — punisher
Crushes 2/3 of SP's top pitches (FF, SI)
Historical sweet spot in the order: #4 (48% of career HRs)
Hot streak: .972 OPS over last 15 days
90°F — ball flies in warm air
Park drag (88)
Elite barrel% (12.4)
High barrels/PA (8.3%)
Pitcher high contact-quality allowed (13.5% brl)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.302↑ vs season .27262 PA · 15d

OPS

.972

ISO

.283

RBI

K-BB

12-7

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	HR	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-12	vs SD	1	1	0	2	3	0	1.000
06-11	vs SEA	4	1	1	2	0	1	1.000
💣 439ft · 110.6 EV · Sweeper
06-10	vs SEA	5	2	1	1	0	2	1.000
💣 402ft · 106.5 EV · 4-Seamer
06-09	vs SEA	4	1	0	0	0	0	.250
06-08	vs SEA	4	0	0	1	0	2	—
06-07	@ TOR	3	0	0	0	1	0	—
06-06	@ TOR	4	1	1	2	0	1	1.000
💣 421ft · 107.7 EV · 4-Seamer
06-05	@ TOR	4	1	0	0	1	1	.250

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB. Metrics are this hitter's vs RHP split.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾FF4-Seam FastballvR55PA	.470	.477	31.6	65.8	26	22.6
🐾FCCuttervR14PA	—	.388	0.0	37.5	38	31.8
🐾SISinkervR66PA	.196	.407	8.2	65.3	55	16.7
🐾CUCurveballvR25PA	.166	.284	0.0	44.4	78	27.8

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	.143	.435	19.0	66.7	62	25.8	86	30
vs RHPTONIGHT	.470	.477	31.6	65.8	26	22.6	127	55

FCCutter

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	—	.194	0.0	60.0	60	14.3	86	7
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHESTONIGHT	—	.388	0.0	37.5	38	31.8	127	14

SISinker

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	—	.281	12.5	62.5	38	20.0	86	13
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHESTONIGHT	.196	.407	8.2	65.3	55	16.7	127	66

CUCurveball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES	—	.388	0.0	50.0	50	30.0	86	5
vs RHPTONIGHT	.166	.284	0.0	44.4	78	27.8	127	25

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

vs LHB

136

🐾vs RHB

vs SHB

112

Oriole Park at Camden Yards. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Alonso.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Hottest from spot #4 — 28 of 58 career HRs (48%).

🐾

Hot spots:#4#3

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast.

Season Statcast

ISO

.212

Barrel %

12.4

Hard Hit %

55.9

Pull % (HRs)

xwOBA

.373

xBA

.272

Brl / PA %

8.30

Max EV (mph)

114.6

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

114.6

Avg EV on HRs

106.0

Avg HR Distance (ft)

394

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

1/8

Crushed (105+ mph)

5/8

Avg LA on HRs

27.4°

Brl / PA %

8.30

Sampled across 8 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Randy Vásquez · top 3 pitches tonightvs RHP split

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

🐾 ELITE EXPLOIT

FF4-Seam Fastballvs RHP
Use%
31
xwOBA
.477
Whiff%
22.6
HH%
65.8
BRL%
31.6
Pull%
26
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.
FCCuttervs RHP
Use%
24
xwOBA
.388
Whiff%
31.8
HH%
37.5
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
38
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.
SISinkervs RHP
Use%
14
xwOBA
.407
Whiff%
16.7
HH%
65.3
BRL%
8.2
Pull%
55
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.

Career vs Randy Vásquez (RHP)

🐾 Tonight's matchup

1.000AVG · small sample (2 PA)

OPS

5.000

RBI

K-BB

0-1

Randy Vásquez (RHP) arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
FF4-Seam Fastball	31.1	15.4	45.7	44	.341	14.3
FCCutter	23.7	14.3	42.2	61	.424	13.0
SISinker⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	13.5	16.7	54.5	60	.450	26.5
CUCurveball	11.1	3.8	50.0	73	.356	13.0

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball31% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	12.7	47.3	51	.349	14.6	72
vs RHB	21.7	47.8	26	.328	15.4	36

FCCutter24% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	3.7	33.3	70	.316	14.3	35
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	27.3	54.5	50	.560	9.5	27

SISinker⚡ PUT-AWAY14% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	10.0	40.0	70	.438	31.2	18
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	18.8	56.2	56	.460	20.0	39

CUCurveball11% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	4.8	52.4	67	.330	19.4	30
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	0.0	60.0	100	.473	11.1	8

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 26.5% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #8 (xwOBA .506). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (BAL)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Camden Yards (333/410/318 ft) · elev 36ft

8 HRs this season

vs RHP 6vs LHP 2

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

SI🐾Sinker3

FF🐾4-Seam Fastball3

CUCurveball1

CHChangeup1

Bats R · Pull side: LF

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾vs RHP220PA	.236	.489	.830	12.5%	12
vs LHP87PA	.152	.380	.679	13.8%	3

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Home167PA	.189	.427	.762	8.8%	8
Away140PA	.238	.492	.813	17.3%	7

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Day140PA	.145	.379	.693	11.0%	4
Night167PA	.269	.524	.865	14.8%	11

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty86PA	.161	.382	.766	3
Runners On156PA	.218	.472	.773	8
RISP92PA	.210	.420	.692	4

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs94PA	.211	.482	.812	5
1 Out101PA	.281	.562	.909	6
2 Outs112PA	.148	.337	.650	4

Count

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0-032PA	.281	.562	.844	2
1-016PA	.374	.562	.750	2
0-124PA	.261	.609	.942	2
2-08PA	.500	.750	1.000	1
0-224PA	.334	.667	1.000	2
3-06PA	—	—	1.000	0
1-256PA	.161	.375	.589	2
2-248PA	.125	.292	.458	1
3-258PA	.024	.146	.508	0

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. vs RHP · Home · Day · Sat.