Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Showing tomorrow's slate. Projections and lineups will refine as the slate locks in.

Home Run

9.2%

+987

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Cade Cavalli (RHP) (0.65 HR/9) · park 78

2+ RBI

9.1%

+1004

RBI 1+

32.6%

+207

Hits 1+

63.7%

-175

Hits 2+

21.5%

+365

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

2.6%

95% CI · 2.5–2.8%

+3678

Fair odds

1st AB

0.5%

Through AB2

1.1%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park-22%
Temp+5%
vs SP-24%
Contact-29%
SP Contact-9%
Statcast-11%
SP Statcast-2%

🎯 Early-AB cuesvs Cade Cavalli (RHP)

·SP suppresses HRs (blended_proj)
·90F game
·Soft contact profile (away) — below league
·Weak Statcast contact (barrel%/EV below league)

⚠ Thin blended HR rate

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0162 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)-24% (×0.76) · blended_proj

Park-22% (×0.78)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp+5% (×1.05)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)-29% (×0.71)

Statcast (barrel/EV)-11% (×0.89)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)-9% (×0.91)

SP Statcast allowed-2% (×0.98)

Discipline+0% (×1.00)

HR Odds History

Price range · 12 games · 1 HR

Now

+985

High

+1100

Low

+520

Med

+925

Avg

+880

🐾+985

Low +520🐾 HR money zoneHigh +1100

🐾 PRIME SPOTspot score 100

Tonight's price is in his money zone — he's gone yard 1× priced here.

⚠ Thin sample (1 HR game) — a hint, not a lock.

Recent — tap a game

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-06-12 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

1.0

Proj PA

HR / PA

.016

ISO

.097

wOBA

.284

wRC+

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Away2026-06-12 · FG

Season

HR/FB

13.3

Hard%

34.0

FB%

31.9

Pull%

36.2

Soft%

19.1

GB%

31.9

vs LHP

HR/FB

33.3

Hard%

50.0

FB%

37.5

Pull%

50.0

Soft%

12.5

GB%

37.5

🐾vs RHP

HR/FB

8.3

Hard%

30.8

FB%

30.8

Pull%

33.3

Soft%

20.5

GB%

30.8

Home

HR/FB

25.0

Hard%

52.2

FB%

34.8

Pull%

47.8

Soft%

8.7

GB%

26.1

🐾Away

HR/FB

0.0

Hard%

16.7

FB%

29.2

Pull%

25.0

Soft%

29.2

GB%

37.5

🐾 = split that matches tonight (vs RHP, Away). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

2.0 🐾

DART THROW

Nationals Park suppresses HRs (78)
Cade Cavalli stingy: only 0.65 HR/9
Hot streak: .837 OPS over last 15 days
91°F — ball flies in warm air
Park drag (78)
High barrels/PA (6.2%)
Pitcher suppresses HR (0.65 HR/9)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.364↑ vs season .25034 PA · 15d

OPS

.837

ISO

.091

RBI

K-BB

5-1

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	HR	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-12	@ WSH	4	1	0	0	0	1	.250
06-11	@ BAL	4	1	0	0	0	1	.250
06-08	@ BAL	4	1	0	0	0	1	.250
06-07	@ DET	4	1	0	0	0	0	.250
06-06	@ DET	4	2	0	0	0	0	.500
06-03	vs NYM	2	1	0	0	1	1	.500
06-02	vs NYM	4	2	1	3	0	1	1.250
💣 388ft · 98.1 EV · Cutter
05-31	vs ARI	4	2	0	0	0	0	.500

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB. Metrics are this hitter's vs RHP split.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾FF4-Seam FastballvR18PA	—	.352	0.0	46.7	33	8.3
🐾CUCurveball	—	—	—	—	—	—
🐾SISinkervR12PA	—	.209	0.0	37.5	38	14.3
🐾STSweeper	—	—	—	—	—	—

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHPTONIGHT	—	.352	0.0	46.7	33	8.3	92	18

SISinker

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES	—	.391	0.0	100.0	25	0.0	—	4
vs RHPTONIGHT	—	.209	0.0	37.5	38	14.3	92	12

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

vs LHB

111

🐾vs RHB

vs SHB

Nationals Park. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Pereda.

Season Statcast

Barrel %

7.5

xBA

.250

Brl / PA %

6.18

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Cade Cavalli · top 3 pitches tonightvs RHP split

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Neutral matchup

FF4-Seam Fastballvs RHP
Use%
35
xwOBA
.352
Whiff%
8.3
HH%
46.7
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
33
CUCurveball
Use%
30
xwOBA
—
Whiff%
—
HH%
—
BRL%
—
Pull%
—
SISinkervs RHP
Use%
15
xwOBA
.209
Whiff%
14.3
HH%
37.5
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
38
⚠ Struggles against this pitch in 12 PA this season.

Cade Cavalli (RHP) arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
FF4-Seam Fastball	34.6	14.3	41.3	48	.375	18.7
CUCurveball⚡ PUT-AWAY	29.5	—	31.9	—	.268	28.4
SISinker	15.2	4.9	52.6	76	.345	26.9
STSweeper	11.6	4.3	35.0	52	.320	15.2

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball35% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	10.0	33.3	53	.357	16.4	78
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	25.0	54.2	33	.410	20.7	43

SISinker15% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	0.0	60.0	70	.501	25.0	15
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	6.5	51.6	77	.285	25.0	41

STSweeper12% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	—	—	—	.271	25.0	8
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	4.3	34.8	52	.337	10.0	30

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 28.4% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #8 (xwOBA .482). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾vs RHP52PA	.060	.340	.648	2.4%	1
vs LHP13PA	.300	.600	1.062	10.0%	1

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Home33PA	.200	.533	.927	7.7%	2
🐾Away32PA	—	.233	.514	—	0

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Day35PA	.097	.387	.758	3.3%	1
Night30PA	.103	.379	.679	4.8%	1

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty22PA	—	.429	.884	0
Runners On25PA	.130	.304	.544	1
RISP12PA	.250	.333	.416	1

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs23PA	.143	.429	.777	1
1 Out22PA	—	.250	.568	0
2 Outs20PA	.158	.474	.824	1

Count

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0-013PA	—	.167	.397	0
1-05PA	—	.600	1.200	0
0-16PA	.500	1.000	1.500	1
0-28PA	—	.250	.500	0
3-01PA	—	—	1.000	0
1-27PA	—	.143	.286	0
2-211PA	.273	.818	1.364	1
3-214PA	—	.167	.452	0

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. vs RHP · Away · Day · Sat.