Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

10.2%

+886

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Parker Messick (0.90 HR/9) · park 84

Batting #5Confirmed lineup

2+ RBI

9.6%

+944

RBI 1+

33.1%

+202

Hits 1+

65.0%

-186

Hits 2+

22.9%

+337

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

18.3%

95% CI · 17.9–18.8%

+446

Fair odds

1st AB

4.7%

Through AB2

9.2%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park-16%
vs SP-5%
Contact+20%
SP Contact-9%
Statcast+23%
SP Statcast-4%

🎯 Early-AB cues

·Elite batted-ball profile (home) — Pull/Hard/FB/HR-FB above league
·Elite Statcast power (barrel%/EV/bat speed above league)

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0454 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)-5% (×0.95) · blended_proj

Park-16% (×0.84)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp0% (×1.00)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)+20% (×1.20)

Statcast (barrel/EV)+23% (×1.23)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)-9% (×0.91)

SP Statcast allowed-4% (×0.96)

Discipline-1% (×0.99)

HR Odds History

Price range · 18 games

Now

+830

High

+2000

Low

+360

Med

+508

Avg

+614

+830

Low +360High +2000

BUILDING HISTORY

No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.

HR Winners — odds that cashed

No priced HR games in the tracked window yet.

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-07-16 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

8.5

Proj PA

192

HR / PA

.044

ISO

.204

wOBA

.334

wRC+

111

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Home2026-07-16 · FG

Season

HR/FB

23.1

Hard%

40.6

FB%

37.7

Pull%

42.5

Soft%

12.6

GB%

42.0

vs LHP

HR/FB

15.0

Hard%

37.3

FB%

33.9

Pull%

40.7

Soft%

15.3

GB%

45.8

vs RHP

HR/FB

25.9

Hard%

41.9

FB%

39.2

Pull%

43.2

Soft%

11.5

GB%

40.5

🐾Home

HR/FB

27.0

Hard%

44.0

FB%

37.0

Pull%

38.0

Soft%

13.0

GB%

48.0

Away

HR/FB

19.5

Hard%

37.4

FB%

38.3

Pull%

46.7

Soft%

12.2

GB%

36.4

🐾 = split that matches tonight (Home). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

3.0 🐾

LEAN

American Family Field suppresses HRs (84)
Parker Messick stingy: only 0.90 HR/9
13.4% barrel rate — top-tier loud contact
54.8% hard-hit — punisher
Crushes 2/3 of SP's top pitches (FF, SI)
Historical sweet spot in the order: #4 (63% of career HRs)
Hot streak: 1.020 OPS over last 15 days
Park drag (84)
Elite barrel% (13.4)
High barrels/PA (8.4%)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.242↓ vs season .25845 PA · 15d

OPS

1.020

ISO

.334

RBI

K-BB

11-11

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	HR	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-17	vs CLE	3	0	0	0	1	0	—
06-16	vs CLE	2	0	0	0	0	0	—
06-13	vs PHI	5	1	0	0	0	1	.200
06-12	vs PHI	3	1	1	3	1	2	1.333
💣 391ft · 106.5 EV · Sweeper
06-10	@ ATH	4	0	0	0	0	4	—
06-09	@ ATH	2	0	0	0	2	1	—
06-08	@ ATH	4	2	1	3	1	1	1.250
💣 457ft · 106.1 EV · Sinker
06-06	@ COL	1	1	1	1	4	0	4.000
💣 378ft · 97.1 EV · 4-Seamer

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾FF4-Seam Fastball72PA	.297	.409	19.2	55.1	42	16.7
🐾CHChangeup20PA	.100	.331	23.5	57.1	77	47.6
🐾SISinker46PA	.184	.394	10.3	51.4	72	13.0
🐾CUCurveball30PA	—	.269	0.0	61.5	50	34.8

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	.334	.375	13.3	40.0	27	12.8	118	20
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHES	.347	.421	21.6	64.9	49	14.0	152	55

CHChangeup

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHP	.409	.348	23.5	64.7	77	38.6	152	23

SISinker

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	—	.318	0.0	38.5	54	3.7	118	16
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHES	.286	.430	15.4	61.5	81	14.3	152	35

CUCurveball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHP	—	.217	0.0	33.3	50	35.5	152	18

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

🐾vs LHB

vs RHB

108

vs SHB

American Family Field. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Bauers.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Tonight: Batting #5Confirmed0 of 8 HRs · 0%

🐾 Hottest from spot #4 — 5 of 8 career HRs (63%).

🐾

Hot spots:#4

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast. 🐾 jade outline = tonight's spot.

Season Statcast

ISO

.237

Barrel %

13.4

Hard Hit %

54.8

Pull % (HRs)

xwOBA

.362

xBA

.258

Brl / PA %

8.40

Max EV (mph)

112.4

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

112.4

Avg EV on HRs

106.9

Avg HR Distance (ft)

402

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

3/11

Crushed (105+ mph)

7/11

Avg LA on HRs

32.7°

Brl / PA %

8.40

Sampled across 11 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Parker Messick · top 3 pitches tonight

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

🐾 ELITE EXPLOIT

FF4-Seam Fastball
Use%
31
xwOBA
.409
Whiff%
16.7
HH%
55.1
BRL%
19.2
Pull%
42
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.
CHChangeup
Use%
25
xwOBA
.331
Whiff%
47.6
HH%
57.1
BRL%
23.5
Pull%
77
SISinker
Use%
17
xwOBA
.394
Whiff%
13.0
HH%
51.4
BRL%
10.3
Pull%
72
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.

Parker Messick arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
FF4-Seam Fastball⚡ PUT-AWAY	31.3	8.2	36.2	43	.230	25.0
CHChangeup	24.7	7.7	23.9	60	.234	24.8
SISinker	16.9	5.0	49.1	62	.415	7.1
CUCurveball	11.1	4.2	9.5	63	.252	—

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball⚡ PUT-AWAY31% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	11.1	38.9	44	.214	25.8	29
vs RHB	7.3	41.8	42	.236	22.8	91

CHChangeup25% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	0.0	60.0	80	.256	29.4	15
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	8.5	25.5	57	.231	25.5	87

SISinker17% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	0.0	28.0	60	.328	8.3	30
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	8.6	60.0	63	.475	0.0	37

CUCurveball11% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	0.0	11.1	67	.159	0.0	10
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	6.7	26.7	60	.312	0.0	16

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 25.0% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #3 (xwOBA .488). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (MIL)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: American Family Field (344/400/345 ft) · elev 635ft

11 HRs this season

vs RHP 9vs LHP 2

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

FF🐾4-Seam Fastball4

CHChangeup2

STSweeper2

FCCutter1

KCKnuckle-Curve1

SLSlider1

Bats L · Pull side: RF

HR Drought — when he's due

HR Drought🐾 DUE

games since last HR

PAs since last HR

Homers about every 2.7 games · 11 PA (3 HR in 8 G)

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
vs RHP189PA	.261	.534	.915	18.1%	11
vs LHP61PA	.167	.426	.770	6.8%	2

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Home133PA	.278	.539	.900	16.0%	9
Away117PA	.190	.470	.855	14.3%	4

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Day77PA	.194	.433	.771	16.4%	3
Night173PA	.257	.541	.928	14.5%	10

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty75PA	.149	.403	.736	2
Runners On122PA	.297	.594	1.012	8
RISP79PA	.413	.762	1.243	7

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs75PA	.238	.507	.854	4
1 Out76PA	.221	.515	.883	3
2 Outs99PA	.250	.500	.894	6

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. Home · Day · Thu.