Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

13.3%

+652

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Sean Burke (1.11 HR/9) · park 117

Batting #3Confirmed lineup

2+ RBI

11.3%

+784

RBI 1+

34.6%

+189

Hits 1+

70.5%

-239

Hits 2+

29.1%

+244

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

21.9%

95% CI · 21.4–22.3%

+357

Fair odds

1st AB

6.2%

Through AB2

12.2%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park+17%
Temp+5%
vs SP+13%
Contact+15%
Statcast+2%
SP Statcast-3%
Discipline+1%

🎯 Early-AB cues

·HR-friendly park (factor 117)
·87F game
·Elite batted-ball profile (home) — Pull/Hard/FB/HR-FB above league

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0380 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)+13% (×1.13) · blended_proj

Park+17% (×1.17)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp+5% (×1.05)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)+15% (×1.15)

Statcast (barrel/EV)+2% (×1.02)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)+1% (×1.01)

SP Statcast allowed-3% (×0.97)

Discipline+1% (×1.01)

HR Odds History

Price range · 18 games

Now

+350

High

+2605

Low

+365

Med

+560

Avg

+720

+350

Low +365High +2605

BUILDING HISTORY

No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.

HR Winners — odds that cashed

No priced HR games in the tracked window yet.

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-07-16 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

10.7

Proj PA

262

HR / PA

.041

ISO

.195

wOBA

.338

wRC+

117

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Home2026-07-16 · FG

Season

HR/FB

8.4

Hard%

33.9

FB%

44.9

Pull%

45.2

Soft%

14.0

GB%

35.3

vs LHP

HR/FB

8.5

Hard%

32.4

FB%

44.8

Pull%

50.5

Soft%

13.3

GB%

32.4

vs RHP

HR/FB

8.3

Hard%

34.8

FB%

44.9

Pull%

42.2

Soft%

14.4

GB%

36.9

🐾Home

HR/FB

12.5

Hard%

32.3

FB%

48.1

Pull%

46.6

Soft%

15.0

GB%

31.6

Away

HR/FB

4.5

Hard%

35.2

FB%

42.1

Pull%

44.0

Soft%

13.2

GB%

38.4

🐾 = split that matches tonight (Home). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

4.0 🐾

STRONG PLAY

Yankee Stadium is a hitter's haven (+17 for LHB)
Crushes 1/3 of SP's top pitches (SL)
Historical sweet spot in the order: #3 (55% of career HRs)
88°F — ball flies in warm air
20 mph wind — check direction relative to spray
Park boost (117)
High barrels/PA (5.8%)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.304↑ vs season .29352 PA · 15d

OPS

.889

ISO

.239

RBI

K-BB

5-4

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	HR	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-17	vs CHW	4	3	1	2	1	1	1.750
💣 363ft · 92.2 EV · Sinker
06-16	vs CHW	4	3	0	2	0	0	.750
06-14	@ TOR	5	0	0	0	0	0	—
06-13	@ TOR	4	1	0	0	0	1	.250
06-12	@ TOR	5	1	1	2	0	0	.800
💣 350ft · 104.0 EV · Splitter
06-10	@ CLE	4	1	0	0	1	0	.500
06-09	@ CLE	3	0	0	0	1	0	—
06-08	@ CLE	5	2	0	2	0	1	.400

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾FF4-Seam Fastball100PA	.154	.376	4.2	30.9	45	17.4
🐾CUCurveball24PA	.250	.318	17.6	29.4	65	37.8
🐾SLSlider36PA	.533	.454	17.2	28.6	55	18.8
🐾SISinker57PA	.177	.407	2.2	43.9	70	10.8

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	.103	.263	0.0	23.1	35	10.3	141	35
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHES	.176	.435	6.7	35.6	51	17.0	138	68

CUCurveball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHP	.300	.355	21.4	28.6	57	35.5	138	20

SLSlider

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	.600	.430	14.3	14.3	64	18.4	141	18
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHES	.438	.476	20.0	40.0	47	15.6	138	19

SISinker

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES	.276	.440	3.6	32.1	75	7.5	141	32
vs RHP	—	.377	0.0	50.0	61	10.0	138	31

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

🐾vs LHB

117

vs RHB

107

vs SHB

112

Yankee Stadium. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Bellinger.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Tonight: Batting #3Confirmed27 of 49 HRs · 55%

🐾 Hottest from spot #3 — 27 of 49 career HRs (55%).

🐾

Hot spots:#3#4

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast. 🐾 jade outline = tonight's spot.

Season Statcast

ISO

.207

Barrel %

7.9

Hard Hit %

37.0

Pull % (HRs)

100

xwOBA

.375

xBA

.293

Brl / PA %

5.80

Max EV (mph)

109.3

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

105.5

Avg EV on HRs

102.3

Avg HR Distance (ft)

379

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

0/6

Crushed (105+ mph)

2/6

Avg LA on HRs

28.8°

Brl / PA %

5.80

Sampled across 6 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Sean Burke · top 3 pitches tonight

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

🐾 HIGH EXPLOIT

FF4-Seam Fastball
Use%
37
xwOBA
.376
Whiff%
17.4
HH%
30.9
BRL%
4.2
Pull%
45
CUCurveball
Use%
22
xwOBA
.318
Whiff%
37.8
HH%
29.4
BRL%
17.6
Pull%
65
SLSlider
Use%
17
xwOBA
.454
Whiff%
18.8
HH%
28.6
BRL%
17.2
Pull%
55
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.

Sean Burke arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
FF4-Seam Fastball⚡ PUT-AWAY	36.9	11.8	37.3	48	.305	19.5
CUCurveball	21.7	—	40.5	—	.292	19.1
SLSlider	17.1	5.6	32.4	69	.290	17.4
SISinker	16.0	2.3	34.9	51	.333	11.1

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball⚡ PUT-AWAY37% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	11.9	40.7	58	.362	17.5	92
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	11.8	38.2	32	.219	22.8	64

SLSlider17% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	0.0	37.5	50	.284	21.7	17
vs RHB	7.1	28.6	75	.295	14.8	38

SISinker16% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	6.2	50.0	50	.358	19.0	24
vs RHB	0.0	25.9	52	.317	10.5	33

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 19.5% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #8 (xwOBA .433). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (NYY)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Yankee Stadium (318/408/314 ft) · elev 55ft

6 HRs this season

vs RHP 4vs LHP 2

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

SL🐾Slider4

CUCurveball1

FSSplitter1

Bats L · Pull side: RF

HR Drought — when he's due

HR Drought

games since last HR

PAs since last HR

Homers about every 4.0 games · 19 PA (2 HR in 8 G)

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
vs RHP209PA	.189	.463	.846	9.7%	7
vs LHP99PA	.244	.535	.889	3.5%	4

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Home138PA	.351	.737	1.201	11.2%	8
Away170PA	.096	.293	.593	4.0%	3

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Day112PA	.294	.620	1.066	8.8%	6
🐾Night196PA	.160	.414	.746	6.7%	5

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty104PA	.131	.381	.775	2
Runners On137PA	.261	.591	.992	6
RISP77PA	.175	.492	.869	1

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs96PA	.151	.407	.730	3
1 Out100PA	.109	.386	.746	1
2 Outs112PA	.348	.652	1.081	7

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. Home · Night · Thu.