Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

12.8%

+682

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Shane Baz (0.88 HR/9) · park 108

Batting #1Confirmed lineup

2+ RBI

11.0%

+806

RBI 1+

34.4%

+191

Hits 1+

64.3%

-181

Hits 2+

22.2%

+351

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

12.1%

95% CI · 11.8–12.5%

+724

Fair odds

1st AB

3.1%

Through AB2

6.3%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park+8%
Wind-1%
Contact+17%
SP Contact-7%
Statcast+8%
Discipline+1%

🎯 Early-AB cues

·Elite batted-ball profile (home) — Pull/Hard/FB/HR-FB above league
·Elite Statcast power (barrel%/EV/bat speed above league)

⚠ Thin blended HR rate

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0244 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)-1% (×0.99) · blended_proj

Park+8% (×1.08)

Wind-1% (×0.99)

Temp0% (×1.00)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)+17% (×1.17)

Statcast (barrel/EV)+8% (×1.08)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)-7% (×0.93)

SP Statcast allowed0% (×1.00)

Discipline+1% (×1.01)

HR Odds History

Price range · 18 games

Now

+705

High

+2740

Low

+610

Med

+750

Avg

+829

+705

Low +610High +2740

BUILDING HISTORY

No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.

HR Winners — odds that cashed

No priced HR games in the tracked window yet.

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-07-16 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

6.4

Proj PA

256

HR / PA

.025

ISO

.135

wOBA

.319

wRC+

110

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Home2026-07-16 · FG

Season

HR/FB

13.7

Hard%

31.9

FB%

34.3

Pull%

38.0

Soft%

14.4

GB%

46.5

vs LHP

HR/FB

5.6

Hard%

22.6

FB%

30.0

Pull%

41.9

Soft%

19.4

GB%

53.3

vs RHP

HR/FB

16.4

Hard%

35.7

FB%

35.9

Pull%

36.4

Soft%

12.3

GB%

43.8

🐾Home

HR/FB

17.5

Hard%

36.4

FB%

41.2

Pull%

38.4

Soft%

13.1

GB%

41.2

Away

HR/FB

9.1

Hard%

28.2

FB%

28.4

Pull%

37.6

Soft%

15.4

GB%

50.9

🐾 = split that matches tonight (Home). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

3.0 🐾

LEAN

T-Mobile Park mild HR boost (+8)
Shane Baz stingy: only 0.88 HR/9
Crushes 1/3 of SP's top pitches (FF)
Historical sweet spot in the order: #1 (100% of career HRs)
High barrels/PA (5.8%)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.455↑ vs season .25414 PA · 15d

OPS

1.389

ISO

.363

RBI

K-BB

3-2

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	HR	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-17	vs BAL	4	0	0	0	0	2	—
06-16	vs BAL	2	1	0	0	2	0	.500
06-05	@ DET	1	1	0	0	0	0	1.000
06-03	vs NYM	4	3	1	1	0	1	1.750
💣 409ft · 103.3 EV · 4-Seamer
06-02	vs NYM	2	0	0	0	3	1	—
06-01	vs NYM	4	0	0	0	0	2	—
05-31	vs ARI	4	1	0	0	1	3	.250
05-30	vs ARI	4	1	0	0	0	0	.250

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾FF4-Seam Fastball88PA	.204	.424	9.8	31.4	45	15.2
🐾CUCurveball13PA	.500	.365	40.0	57.1	100	28.0
🐾FCCutter22PA	—	.238	0.0	41.2	47	17.9
🐾CHChangeup21PA	.389	.372	23.1	46.2	69	18.4

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	—	.388	10.0	20.0	40	27.6	100	24
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHES	.266	.439	9.8	34.1	46	9.2	134	64

CUCurveball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHP	.428	.283	25.0	50.0	100	28.6	134	8

FCCutter

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES	—	.486	0.0	50.0	25	20.0	100	4
vs RHP	—	.183	0.0	38.5	54	14.7	134	18

CHChangeup

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHP	.412	.391	23.1	46.2	69	13.9	134	20

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

🐾vs LHB

108

vs RHB

vs SHB

100

T-Mobile Park. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Crawford.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Tonight: Batting #1Confirmed14 of 14 HRs · 100%

🐾 Hottest from spot #1 — 14 of 14 career HRs (100%).

🐾

Hot spots:#1

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast. 🐾 jade outline = tonight's spot.

Season Statcast

ISO

.176

Barrel %

9.1

Hard Hit %

36.4

Pull % (HRs)

100

xwOBA

.357

xBA

.254

Brl / PA %

5.80

Max EV (mph)

107.8

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

107.8

Avg EV on HRs

101.8

Avg HR Distance (ft)

376

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

0/6

Crushed (105+ mph)

1/6

Avg LA on HRs

30.7°

Brl / PA %

5.80

Sampled across 6 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Shane Baz · top 3 pitches tonight

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

🐾 HIGH EXPLOIT

FF4-Seam Fastball
Use%
34
xwOBA
.424
Whiff%
15.2
HH%
31.4
BRL%
9.8
Pull%
45
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.
CUCurveball
Use%
33
xwOBA
.365
Whiff%
28.0
HH%
57.1
BRL%
40.0
Pull%
100
FCCutter
Use%
18
xwOBA
.238
Whiff%
17.9
HH%
41.2
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
47
⚠ Struggles against this pitch in 22 PA this season.

Career vs Shane Baz

🐾 Tonight's matchup

—AVG · small sample (2 PA)

OPS

—

RBI

K-BB

1-0

Shane Baz arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
FF4-Seam Fastball	33.5	10.0	34.9	39	.364	15.4
CUCurveball⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	33.3	—	45.2	—	.291	22.5
FCCutter	17.8	4.8	39.3	66	.352	14.8
CHChangeup	7.7	15.0	38.9	80	.474	4.3

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball34% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	11.1	31.5	43	.403	16.2	76
vs RHB	6.2	43.8	25	.257	14.0	25

FCCutter18% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	0.0	30.0	90	.457	5.3	17
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	5.8	40.4	62	.327	21.1	65

CHChangeup8% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	15.0	35.0	80	.474	4.0	21
vs RHB	no sample

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 22.5% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #8 (xwOBA .381). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (SEA)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: T-Mobile Park (331/401/326 ft) · elev 17ft

6 HRs this season

vs RHP 5vs LHP 1

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

CU🐾Curveball2

FF🐾4-Seam Fastball2

CHChangeup1

SLSlider1

Bats L · Pull side: RF

HR Drought — when he's due

HR Drought

games since last HR

PAs since last HR

Homers about every 8.0 games · 32 PA (1 HR in 8 G)

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
vs RHP169PA	.226	.458	.813	10.3%	9
vs LHP72PA	.052	.263	.624	6.4%	1

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Home123PA	.242	.495	.893	11.8%	7
Away118PA	.110	.310	.624	6.4%	3

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Day91PA	.203	.494	.879	9.7%	4
Night150PA	.159	.342	.682	8.7%	6

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty65PA	.141	.316	.593	2
Runners On99PA	.165	.456	.880	4
RISP49PA	—	.250	.679	0

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs103PA	.178	.357	.687	4
1 Out67PA	.236	.600	1.063	4
2 Outs71PA	.116	.283	.579	2

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. Home · Day · Thu.