Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

17.1%

+486

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Kyle Bradish (RHP) (1.35 HR/9) · park 108

2+ RBI

13.4%

+647

RBI 1+

36.5%

+174

Hits 1+

64.5%

-182

Hits 2+

22.3%

+348

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

14.1%

95% CI · 13.8–14.5%

+607

Fair odds

1st AB

3.5%

Through AB2

6.9%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park+8%
vs SP-10%
Contact+19%
SP Contact+8%
Statcast+10%
SP Statcast+3%

🎯 Early-AB cuesvs Kyle Bradish (RHP)

·Elite batted-ball profile (home) — Pull/Hard/FB/HR-FB above league
·SP allows hard, pulled fly balls (HR-prone contact)
·Elite Statcast power (barrel%/EV/bat speed above league)

⚠ Thin blended HR rate

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0240 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)-10% (×0.90) · blended_proj

Park+8% (×1.08)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp0% (×1.00)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)+19% (×1.19)

Statcast (barrel/EV)+10% (×1.10)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)+8% (×1.08)

SP Statcast allowed+3% (×1.03)

Discipline+0% (×1.00)

HR Odds History

Price range · 12 games · 2 HR

Now

+485

High

+920

Low

+435

Med

+685

Avg

+693

🐾🐾+485

Low +435🐾 HR money zoneHigh +920

🐾 PRIME SPOTspot score 100

Tonight's price is in his money zone — he's gone yard 2× priced here.

⚠ Thin sample (2 HR games) — a hint, not a lock.

HR Winners — odds that cashed

🐾+7502026-05-29vs ARIbook line

HomeBat 1stoff RHPChangeup

🐾+5252026-05-25vs ATHbook line

Awayoff RHPSinker

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-06-16 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

7.7

Proj PA

332

HR / PA

.023

ISO

.130

wOBA

.324

wRC+

110

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Home2026-06-16 · FG

Season

HR/FB

19.2

Hard%

35.3

FB%

35.1

Pull%

41.3

Soft%

13.3

GB%

46.6

vs LHP

HR/FB

7.7

Hard%

25.5

FB%

28.3

Pull%

44.7

Soft%

19.1

GB%

56.5

🐾vs RHP

HR/FB

23.1

Hard%

39.8

FB%

38.2

Pull%

39.8

Soft%

10.7

GB%

42.2

🐾Home

HR/FB

25.0

Hard%

38.9

FB%

39.4

Pull%

44.4

Soft%

13.9

GB%

43.7

Away

HR/FB

12.5

Hard%

32.1

FB%

31.2

Pull%

38.5

Soft%

12.8

GB%

49.4

🐾 = split that matches tonight (vs RHP, Home). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

5.0 🐾

ELITE BIG DAWG ENERGY

T-Mobile Park mild HR boost (+8)
Historical sweet spot in the order: #1 (100% of career HRs)
High barrels/PA (6.0%)
Pitcher high contact-quality allowed (10.5% brl)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.556↑ vs season .25515 PA · 15d

OPS

1.733

ISO

.444

RBI

K-BB

2-5

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	HR	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-16	vs BAL	2	1	0	0	2	0	.500
06-05	@ DET	1	1	0	0	0	0	1.000
06-03	vs NYM	4	3	1	1	0	1	1.750
💣 409ft · 103.3 EV · 4-Seamer
06-02	vs NYM	2	0	0	0	3	1	—
06-01	vs NYM	4	0	0	0	0	2	—
05-31	vs ARI	4	1	0	0	1	3	.250
05-30	vs ARI	4	1	0	0	0	0	.250
05-29	vs ARI	4	2	2	3	1	1	2.000
💣 417ft · 104.8 EV · Changeup💣 379ft · 99.5 EV · 4-Seamer

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB. Metrics are this hitter's vs RHP split.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾SISinkervR24PA	.211	.449	11.1	55.6	44	5.9
🐾SLSlidervR14PA	.215	.085	0.0	40.0	60	39.1
🐾CUCurveballvR8PA	.428	.283	25.0	50.0	100	23.1
🐾FF4-Seam FastballvR61PA	.277	.431	10.3	33.3	49	9.8

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

SISinker

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	—	.309	0.0	23.5	71	3.6	96	24
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHESTONIGHT	.211	.449	11.1	55.6	44	5.9	138	24

SLSlider

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES	—	.336	8.3	16.7	58	14.8	96	14
vs RHPTONIGHT	.215	.085	0.0	40.0	60	39.1	138	14

CUCurveball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHPTONIGHT	.428	.283	25.0	50.0	100	23.1	138	8

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	—	.374	10.0	20.0	40	27.6	96	23
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHESTONIGHT	.277	.431	10.3	33.3	49	9.8	138	61

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

🐾vs LHB

108

vs RHB

vs SHB

100

T-Mobile Park. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Crawford.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Hottest from spot #1 — 14 of 14 career HRs (100%).

🐾

Hot spots:#1

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast.

Season Statcast

ISO

.181

Barrel %

9.3

Hard Hit %

36.7

Pull % (HRs)

100

xwOBA

.358

xBA

.255

Brl / PA %

6.00

Max EV (mph)

107.8

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

107.8

Avg EV on HRs

101.8

Avg HR Distance (ft)

376

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

0/6

Crushed (105+ mph)

1/6

Avg LA on HRs

30.7°

Brl / PA %

6.00

Sampled across 6 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Kyle Bradish · top 3 pitches tonightvs RHP split

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Neutral matchup

SISinkervs RHP
Use%
32
xwOBA
.449
Whiff%
5.9
HH%
55.6
BRL%
11.1
Pull%
44
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.
SLSlidervs RHP
Use%
27
xwOBA
.085
Whiff%
39.1
HH%
40.0
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
60
⚠ Struggles against this pitch in 14 PA this season.
CUCurveballvs RHP
Use%
22
xwOBA
.283
Whiff%
23.1
HH%
50.0
BRL%
25.0
Pull%
100

Career vs Kyle Bradish (RHP)

🐾 Tonight's matchup

.250AVG · small sample (5 PA)

OPS

1.400

RBI

K-BB

1-1

Kyle Bradish (RHP) arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
SISinker⚡ PUT-AWAY	32.1	10.4	36.1	55	.302	21.7
SLSlider	26.9	10.3	33.3	76	.339	18.9
CUCurveball	22.0	13.2	45.9	76	.261	21.3
FF4-Seam Fastball	18.9	5.6	36.0	48	.400	16.7

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

SISinker⚡ PUT-AWAY32% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	9.1	40.9	57	.305	22.9	74
vs RHB	12.1	30.3	52	.298	19.0	45

SLSlider27% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	7.1	35.7	89	.299	22.4	52
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	13.3	30.0	63	.380	16.4	44

CUCurveball22% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	10.7	42.9	82	.245	21.0	42
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	20.0	50.0	60	.297	19.4	19

FF4-Seam Fastball19% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	4.4	31.1	49	.377	23.8	56
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	11.1	77.8	44	.514	0.0	13

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 21.7% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #8 (xwOBA .381). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (SEA)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: T-Mobile Park (331/401/326 ft) · elev 17ft

6 HRs this season

vs RHP 5vs LHP 1

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

CU🐾Curveball2

FF🐾4-Seam Fastball2

CHChangeup1

SLSlider1

Bats L · Pull side: RF

HR Drought — when he's due

HR Drought

games since last HR

PAs since last HR

Homers about every 2.7 games · 11 PA (3 HR in 8 G)

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾vs RHP165PA	.232	.471	.835	10.7%	9
vs LHP72PA	.052	.263	.624	6.4%	1

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Home119PA	.253	.516	.928	12.5%	7
Away118PA	.110	.310	.624	6.4%	3

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Day91PA	.203	.494	.879	9.7%	4
🐾Night146PA	.163	.353	.702	9.1%	6

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty64PA	.142	.321	.602	2
Runners On98PA	.167	.462	.891	4
RISP49PA	—	.250	.679	0

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs101PA	.183	.366	.703	4
1 Out66PA	.241	.611	1.081	4
2 Outs70PA	.119	.288	.588	2

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. vs RHP · Home · Night · Wed.