Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

13.8%

+625

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Sean Burke (1.11 HR/9) · park 117

Batting #8Confirmed lineup

2+ RBI

11.6%

+763

RBI 1+

34.9%

+187

Hits 1+

59.8%

-149

Hits 2+

17.8%

+461

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

20.1%

95% CI · 19.6–20.5%

+398

Fair odds

1st AB

5.7%

Through AB2

11.1%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park+17%
Temp+5%
vs SP+13%
Contact+9%
Statcast+11%
SP Statcast-3%

🎯 Early-AB cues

·HR-friendly park (factor 117)
·87F game
·Elite batted-ball profile (home) — Pull/Hard/FB/HR-FB above league
·Elite Statcast power (barrel%/EV/bat speed above league)

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0353 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)+13% (×1.13) · blended_proj

Park+17% (×1.17)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp+5% (×1.05)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)+9% (×1.09)

Statcast (barrel/EV)+11% (×1.11)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)+1% (×1.01)

SP Statcast allowed-3% (×0.97)

Discipline+0% (×1.00)

HR Odds History

Price range · 18 games

Now

+3495

High

+1175

Low

+370

Med

+622

Avg

+647

+3495

Low +370High +1175

BUILDING HISTORY

No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.

HR Winners — odds that cashed

No priced HR games in the tracked window yet.

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-07-16 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

7.7

Proj PA

187

HR / PA

.041

ISO

.183

wOBA

.314

wRC+

100

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Home2026-07-16 · FG

Season

HR/FB

17.3

Hard%

36.3

FB%

39.1

Pull%

40.0

Soft%

12.6

GB%

42.1

vs LHP

HR/FB

0.0

Hard%

42.3

FB%

33.3

Pull%

30.8

Soft%

15.4

GB%

45.8

vs RHP

HR/FB

20.5

Hard%

34.9

FB%

40.4

Pull%

42.2

Soft%

11.9

GB%

41.3

🐾Home

HR/FB

16.0

Hard%

39.1

FB%

39.7

Pull%

39.1

Soft%

7.8

GB%

42.9

Away

HR/FB

18.5

Hard%

33.8

FB%

38.6

Pull%

40.8

Soft%

16.9

GB%

41.4

🐾 = split that matches tonight (Home). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

4.0 🐾

STRONG PLAY

Yankee Stadium is a hitter's haven (+17 for LHB)
Historical sweet spot in the order: #3 (63% of career HRs)
88°F — ball flies in warm air
20 mph wind — check direction relative to spray
Park boost (117)
High barrels/PA (6.2%)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.222↓ vs season .22830 PA · 15d

OPS

.633

ISO

.111

RBI

K-BB

7-3

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	HR	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-17	vs CHW	1	0	0	0	0	0	—
06-16	vs CHW	5	1	0	1	0	1	.200
06-14	@ TOR	0	0	0	0	0	0	—
06-13	@ TOR	2	0	0	0	1	0	—
06-12	@ TOR	3	0	0	0	1	1	—
06-10	@ CLE	2	0	0	0	0	2	—
06-09	@ CLE	3	2	0	0	1	0	.667
06-08	@ CLE	2	1	1	1	0	1	2.000
💣 389ft · 104.7 EV · Curveball

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾FF4-Seam Fastball59PA	.185	.366	12.2	43.6	39	20.9
🐾CUCurveball24PA	.250	.258	13.3	50.0	73	43.9
🐾SLSlider27PA	—	.245	6.7	69.2	67	45.7
🐾SISinker27PA	.136	.342	10.0	63.2	65	19.5

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	.118	.328	8.3	41.7	42	18.9	61	18
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHES	.225	.383	13.8	48.3	38	18.2	77	44

CUCurveball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHP	.333	.333	14.3	64.3	71	33.3	77	19

SLSlider

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES	—	.282	0.0	60.0	80	38.9	61	8
vs RHP	—	.229	10.0	70.0	60	41.9	77	21

SISinker

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES	—	.429	0.0	50.0	63	25.0	61	11
vs RHP	.177	.291	16.7	66.7	67	21.9	77	19

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

🐾vs LHB

117

vs RHB

107

vs SHB

112

Yankee Stadium. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches McMahon.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Tonight: Batting #8Confirmed0 of 27 HRs · 0%

🐾 Hottest from spot #3 — 17 of 27 career HRs (63%).

🐾

Hot spots:#3

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast. 🐾 jade outline = tonight's spot.

Season Statcast

ISO

.141

Barrel %

10.1

Hard Hit %

49.2

Pull % (HRs)

xwOBA

.297

xBA

.228

Brl / PA %

6.20

Max EV (mph)

110.5

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

104.1

Avg EV on HRs

101.1

Avg HR Distance (ft)

363

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

0/4

Crushed (105+ mph)

0/4

Avg LA on HRs

31.0°

Brl / PA %

6.20

Sampled across 4 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Sean Burke · top 3 pitches tonight

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

🐾 LEAN EXPLOIT

FF4-Seam Fastball
Use%
37
xwOBA
.366
Whiff%
20.9
HH%
43.6
BRL%
12.2
Pull%
39
CUCurveball
Use%
22
xwOBA
.258
Whiff%
43.9
HH%
50.0
BRL%
13.3
Pull%
73
⚠ Struggles against this pitch in 24 PA this season.
SLSlider
Use%
17
xwOBA
.245
Whiff%
45.7
HH%
69.2
BRL%
6.7
Pull%
67
⚠ Struggles against this pitch in 27 PA this season.

Sean Burke arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
FF4-Seam Fastball⚡ PUT-AWAY	36.9	11.8	37.3	48	.305	19.5
CUCurveball	21.7	—	40.5	—	.292	19.1
SLSlider	17.1	5.6	32.4	69	.290	17.4
SISinker	16.0	2.3	34.9	51	.333	11.1

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball⚡ PUT-AWAY37% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	11.9	40.7	58	.362	17.5	92
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	11.8	38.2	32	.219	22.8	64

SLSlider17% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	0.0	37.5	50	.284	21.7	17
vs RHB	7.1	28.6	75	.295	14.8	38

SISinker16% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	6.2	50.0	50	.358	19.0	24
vs RHB	0.0	25.9	52	.317	10.5	33

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 19.5% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #8 (xwOBA .397). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (NYY)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Yankee Stadium (318/408/314 ft) · elev 55ft

4 HRs this season

vs RHP 4vs LHP 0

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

FCCutter1

CHChangeup1

FF4-Seam Fastball1

CUCurveball1

Bats L · Pull side: RF

HR Drought — when he's due

HR Drought

games since last HR

PAs since last HR

Homers about every 8.0 games · 21 PA (1 HR in 8 G)

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
vs RHP150PA	.167	.370	.637	13.5%	7
vs LHP43PA	.051	.282	.568	3.7%	0

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Home89PA	.164	.405	.731	9.7%	3
Away104PA	.122	.306	.529	13.0%	4

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Day71PA	.050	.230	.516	11.5%	0
🐾Night122PA	.190	.414	.676	11.4%	7

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty65PA	.100	.317	.594	1
Runners On81PA	.160	.387	.662	4
RISP53PA	.128	.383	.710	2

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs64PA	.123	.298	.552	2
1 Out60PA	.129	.333	.616	2
2 Outs69PA	.167	.409	.684	3

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. Home · Night · Thu.