Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

9.9%

+914

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Sean Burke (RHP) (0.91 HR/9) · park 92

2+ RBI

9.4%

+961

RBI 1+

32.9%

+204

Hits 1+

63.7%

-175

Hits 2+

21.5%

+365

FG · Blended (2-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

2.7%

95% CI · 2.5–2.9%

+3554

Fair odds

1st AB

0.7%

Through AB2

1.4%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park-8%
Temp+5%
vs SP+10%
SP Contact-6%
SP Statcast-4%

🎯 Early-AB cuesvs Sean Burke (RHP)

·85F game

⚠ Thin blended HR rate

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0072 · blended_2sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)+10% (×1.10) · blended_proj

Park-8% (×0.92)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp+5% (×1.05)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)0% (×1.00)

Statcast (barrel/EV)0% (×1.00)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)-6% (×0.94)

SP Statcast allowed-4% (×0.96)

Discipline+0% (×1.00)

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-06-13 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

0.2

Proj PA

HR / PA

.016

ISO

.093

wOBA

.256

wRC+

Why this pick

2.0 🐾

DART THROW

Rate Field suppresses HRs (92)
86°F — ball flies in warm air
15 mph wind — check direction relative to spray
Park drag (92)
High barrels/PA (6.2%)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.000↓ vs season .2503 PA · 15d

OPS

.000

ISO

—

RBI

K-BB

0-0

Game Log · Last 1

Date	Opp	AB	H	HR	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-12	@ CHW	2	0	0	0	0	0	—

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

vs LHB

101

🐾vs RHB

vs SHB

Rate Field. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Robinson.

Season Statcast

Barrel %

7.5

xBA

.250

Brl / PA %

6.18

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Sean Burke · top 3 pitches tonight

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Unknown

FF4-Seam Fastball
Use%
38
xwOBA
—
Whiff%
—
HH%
—
BRL%
—
Pull%
—
CUCurveball
Use%
21
xwOBA
—
Whiff%
—
HH%
—
BRL%
—
Pull%
—
SLSlider
Use%
17
xwOBA
—
Whiff%
—
HH%
—
BRL%
—
Pull%
—

Sean Burke (RHP) arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
FF4-Seam Fastball⚡ PUT-AWAY	37.5	11.2	36.6	47	.289	18.6
CUCurveball	21.1	—	38.2	—	.280	18.2
SLSlider	16.8	6.1	29.0	67	.291	16.9
SISinker	16.3	2.4	35.7	52	.337	11.8

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball⚡ PUT-AWAY38% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	10.9	40.0	56	.331	17.2	86
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	11.8	38.2	32	.228	21.2	62

SLSlider17% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	0.0	37.5	50	.275	19.0	15
vs RHB	8.0	24.0	72	.300	15.4	35

SISinker16% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	6.7	53.3	53	.371	21.1	23
vs RHB	0.0	25.9	52	.317	10.5	33

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 18.6% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #4 (xwOBA .186). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
🐾vs RHP1PA	—	—	—	0
vs LHP2PA	—	—	—	0

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
🐾Away3PA	—	—	—	0

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Night3PA	—	—	—	0

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS
Bases Empty2PA	—	—	—
Runners On1PA	—	—	—
RISP1PA	—	—	—

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs1PA	—	—	—	0
1 Out2PA	—	—	—	0

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. vs RHP · Away · Day · Sat.