Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

12.8%

+680

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs TBD (1.20 HR/9) · park 99

2+ RBI

11.1%

+805

RBI 1+

34.4%

+191

Hits 1+

70.3%

-237

Hits 2+

28.9%

+246

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

12.9%

95% CI · 12.5–13.2%

+678

Fair odds

1st AB

3.3%

Through AB2

6.5%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park-1%
Temp+5%
Contact+1%
Statcast+3%

🎯 Early-AB cues

·90F game

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0285 · blended_3sys

TTO rampconstant

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)0% (×1.00) · no_pitcher

Park-1% (×0.99)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp+5% (×1.05)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)+1% (×1.01)

Statcast (barrel/EV)+3% (×1.03)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)0% (×1.00)

SP Statcast allowed0% (×1.00)

Discipline+0% (×1.00)

HR Odds History

Price range · 12 games · 1 HR

Now

+680

High

+1020

Low

+415

Med

+620

Avg

+635

🐾+680

Low +415🐾 HR money zoneHigh +1020

WARMspot score 91

Just below his HR money zone (+525 to +525). Close, not prime.

⚠ Thin sample (1 HR game) — a hint, not a lock.

Recent — tap a game

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-06-12 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

5.6

Proj PA

206

HR / PA

.027

ISO

.143

wOBA

.316

wRC+

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Away2026-06-12 · FG

Season

HR/FB

11.5

Hard%

33.8

FB%

40.3

Pull%

31.5

Soft%

15.4

GB%

34.1

vs LHP

HR/FB

0.0

Hard%

11.8

FB%

56.3

Pull%

5.9

Soft%

29.4

GB%

43.8

vs RHP

HR/FB

14.0

Hard%

37.2

FB%

38.1

Pull%

35.4

Soft%

13.3

GB%

32.7

Home

HR/FB

12.5

Hard%

33.3

FB%

38.1

Pull%

31.7

Soft%

9.5

GB%

30.2

🐾Away

HR/FB

10.7

Hard%

34.3

FB%

42.4

Pull%

31.3

Soft%

20.9

GB%

37.9

🐾 = split that matches tonight (Away). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

3.0 🐾

LEAN

91°F — ball flies in warm air
High barrels/PA (6.2%)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.189↓ vs season .29242 PA · 15d

OPS

.532

ISO

.081

RBI

K-BB

3-4

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	HR	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-12	@ NYM	3	1	0	1	0	0	.333
06-10	@ CHW	4	1	0	0	0	0	.250
06-09	@ CHW	5	0	0	0	0	0	—
06-07	vs PIT	3	0	0	0	1	1	—
06-06	vs PIT	3	2	1	2	1	0	1.667
💣 351ft · 93.4 EV · 4-Seamer
06-05	vs PIT	3	0	0	1	0	1	—
06-04	vs TOR	4	0	0	0	0	0	—
06-03	vs TOR	0	0	0	0	1	0	—

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
FF4-Seam Fastball50PA	.233	.478	11.4	37.5	43	7.6
SLSlider10PA	—	.383	0.0	28.6	63	39.4
FCCutter12PA	.333	.353	15.4	50.0	31	14.8
STSweeper14PA	.143	.341	18.2	50.0	55	19.4

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	—	.238	0.0	0.0	50	5.6	—	5
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHES	.228	.494	12.5	42.5	43	5.0	121	49

SLSlider

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHP	—	.279	0.0	16.7	67	36.7	121	8

FCCutter

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHP	.363	.369	18.2	54.5	27	15.4	121	11

STSweeper

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES	—	.397	25.0	25.0	75	12.5	—	4
vs RHP	.181	.325	14.3	57.1	43	16.7	121	12

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

🐾vs LHB

vs RHB

111

vs SHB

105

Citi Field. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Smith.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Hottest from spot #5 — 2 of 3 career HRs (67%).

🐾

Hot spots:#5#4

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast.

Season Statcast

ISO

.162

Barrel %

7.7

Hard Hit %

36.9

Pull % (HRs)

100

xwOBA

.351

xBA

.292

Brl / PA %

6.20

Max EV (mph)

109.1

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

109.1

Avg EV on HRs

103.7

Avg HR Distance (ft)

398

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

0/4

Crushed (105+ mph)

1/4

Avg LA on HRs

33.3°

Brl / PA %

6.20

Sampled across 4 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

🐾 Hottest zone: #8 (xwOBA .422). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (NYM)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Citi Field (335/408/330 ft) · elev 33ft

4 HRs this season

vs RHP 4vs LHP 0

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

FF🐾4-Seam Fastball2

FSSplitter1

FCCutter1

Bats L · Pull side: RF

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
vs RHP142PA	.174	.477	.808	8.3%	6
vs LHP23PA	.052	.263	.581	4.5%	0

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Home83PA	.145	.461	.810	7.2%	3
🐾Away82PA	.173	.440	.749	8.1%	3

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Day39PA	.094	.438	.859	5.1%	1
Night126PA	.177	.454	.756	8.7%	5

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty48PA	.112	.356	.648	1
Runners On81PA	.206	.562	.937	4
RISP45PA	.257	.590	.931	3

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs56PA	.220	.460	.751	3
1 Out58PA	.170	.453	.763	2
2 Outs51PA	.084	.438	.830	1

Count

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0-028PA	.186	.556	.948	1
1-014PA	.231	.462	.676	1
0-117PA	.375	.750	1.103	2
2-06PA	—	.333	.667	0
0-215PA	—	.357	.690	0
1-222PA	.047	.190	.327	0
2-220PA	.050	.250	.450	0
3-223PA	.500	.875	1.440	2

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. Away · Day · Sat.