Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

8.8%

+1030

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Landen Roupp (RHP) (0.49 HR/9) · park 100

Batting #5Projected lineup

2+ RBI

8.9%

+1028

RBI 1+

32.4%

+208

Hits 1+

69.2%

-224

Hits 2+

27.5%

+264

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

9.1%

95% CI · 8.8–9.4%

+996

Fair odds

1st AB

1.8%

Through AB2

3.5%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Wind+15%
vs SP-33%
Contact+2%
SP Contact-11%
SP Statcast-7%

🎯 Early-AB cuesvs Landen Roupp (RHP)

·SP suppresses HRs (blended_proj)
·20 mph wind out to OF

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0264 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)-33% (×0.67) · blended_proj

Park0% (×1.00)

Wind+15% (×1.15)

Temp0% (×1.00)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)+2% (×1.02)

Statcast (barrel/EV)-1% (×0.99)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)-11% (×0.89)

SP Statcast allowed-7% (×0.93)

Discipline+0% (×1.00)

HR Odds History

Price range · 18 games

Now

+795

High

+1120

Low

+460

Med

+738

Avg

+764

+795

Low +460High +1120

BUILDING HISTORY

No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.

HR Winners — odds that cashed

No priced HR games in the tracked window yet.

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-07-16 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

3.7

Proj PA

127

HR / PA

.029

ISO

.147

wOBA

.314

wRC+

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Home2026-07-16 · FG

Season

HR/FB

9.0

Hard%

31.7

FB%

36.8

Pull%

36.1

Soft%

18.0

GB%

40.1

vs LHP

HR/FB

0.0

Hard%

8.0

FB%

54.2

Pull%

24.0

Soft%

36.0

GB%

45.8

🐾vs RHP

HR/FB

11.1

Hard%

35.4

FB%

34.2

Pull%

38.0

Soft%

15.2

GB%

39.2

🐾Home

HR/FB

10.3

Hard%

36.1

FB%

34.9

Pull%

36.1

Soft%

13.3

GB%

34.9

Away

HR/FB

7.9

Hard%

28.0

FB%

38.4

Pull%

36.0

Soft%

22.0

GB%

44.4

🐾 = split that matches tonight (vs RHP, Home). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

2.0 🐾

DART THROW

Landen Roupp stingy: only 0.49 HR/9
20 mph wind — check direction relative to spray
78% rain — delay/cancel risk
High barrels/PA (5.7%)
Pitcher suppresses HR (0.49 HR/9)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.152↓ vs season .28440 PA · 15d

OPS

.467

ISO

.090

RBI

K-BB

3-4

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-17	vs SF	0	0	1	0	0	—
06-16	vs SF	3	1	0	1	1	.333
06-14	@ NYM	3	0	1	0	0	—
06-13	@ NYM	2	0	0	0	0	—
06-12	@ NYM	3	1	1	0	0	.333
06-10	@ CHW	4	1	0	0	0	.250
06-09	@ CHW	5	0	0	0	0	—
06-07	vs PIT	3	0	0	1	1	—

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB. Metrics are this hitter's vs RHP split.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾SISinkervR21PA	—	.318	0.0	40.0	60	5.0
🐾CUCurveballvR21PA	.200	.281	6.2	50.0	69	32.4
🐾CHChangeupvR19PA	—	.160	0.0	18.8	100	34.2
🐾FCCuttervR11PA	.363	.369	18.2	54.5	27	15.4

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

SISinker

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	.111	.187	0.0	12.5	50	0.0	48	11
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHESTONIGHT	—	.318	0.0	40.0	60	5.0	115	21

CUCurveball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHPTONIGHT	.200	.281	6.2	50.0	69	32.4	115	21

CHChangeup

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHPTONIGHT	—	.160	0.0	18.8	100	34.2	115	19

FCCutter

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHPTONIGHT	.363	.369	18.2	54.5	27	15.4	115	11

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

🐾vs LHB

100

vs RHB

vs SHB

Truist Park. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Smith.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Tonight: Batting #5Projected2 of 3 HRs · 67%

🐾 Hottest from spot #5 — 2 of 3 career HRs (67%).

🐾

Hot spots:#5#4

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast. 🐾 jade outline = tonight's spot.

Season Statcast

ISO

.151

Barrel %

7.0

Hard Hit %

35.9

Pull % (HRs)

100

xwOBA

.339

xBA

.284

Brl / PA %

5.70

Max EV (mph)

109.1

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

109.1

Avg EV on HRs

103.7

Avg HR Distance (ft)

398

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

0/4

Crushed (105+ mph)

1/4

Avg LA on HRs

33.3°

Brl / PA %

5.70

Sampled across 4 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Landen Roupp · top 3 pitches tonightvs RHP split

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Tough matchup

SISinkervs RHP
Use%
37
xwOBA
.318
Whiff%
5.0
HH%
40.0
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
60
CUCurveballvs RHP
Use%
28
xwOBA
.281
Whiff%
32.4
HH%
50.0
BRL%
6.2
Pull%
69
CHChangeupvs RHP
Use%
19
xwOBA
.160
Whiff%
34.2
HH%
18.8
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
100
⚠ Struggles against this pitch in 19 PA this season.

Landen Roupp (RHP) arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
SISinker	36.5	7.7	36.9	58	.355	19.3
CUCurveball⚡ PUT-AWAY	27.6	2.3	16.3	80	.217	29.6
CHChangeup	19.2	0.0	26.2	71	.291	14.3
FCCutter	13.1	4.5	33.3	50	.295	21.9

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

SISinker37% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	4.8	35.7	60	.373	25.0	70
vs RHB	10.2	36.7	57	.332	11.6	57

CUCurveball⚡ PUT-AWAY28% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	5.6	33.3	100	.238	33.3	44
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	0.0	7.7	65	.202	27.7	54

CHChangeup19% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	0.0	33.3	78	.304	14.3	52
vs RHB	0.0	0.0	38	.242	12.9	13

FCCutter13% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	10.0	40.0	70	.341	29.4	16
vs RHB	0.0	33.3	33	.245	17.6	15

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 29.6% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #8 (xwOBA .422). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (ATL)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Truist Park (335/400/325 ft) · elev 1057ft

4 HRs this season

vs RHP 4vs LHP 0

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

FF🐾4-Seam Fastball2

FSSplitter1

FCCutter1

Bats L · Pull side: RF

HR Drought — when he's due

HR Drought

games since last HR

PAs since last HR

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾vs RHP150PA	.168	.467	.794	7.8%	6
vs LHP26PA	.045	.227	.507	4.2%	0

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Home88PA	.140	.456	.808	7.1%	3
Away88PA	.163	.413	.700	7.2%	3

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Day45PA	.081	.378	.742	4.4%	1
🐾Night131PA	.172	.451	.756	8.3%	5

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty52PA	.103	.327	.596	1
Runners On87PA	.198	.553	.925	4
RISP48PA	.250	.575	.894	3

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs57PA	.216	.451	.737	3
1 Out63PA	.161	.429	.715	2
2 Outs56PA	.077	.423	.816	1

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. vs RHP · Home · Night · Thu.