Home Run
14.1%
+607
🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾
vs TBD (1.20 HR/9) · park 110
2+ RBI
11.8%
+749
RBI 1+
35.1%
+185
Hits 1+
63.7%
-175
Hits 2+
21.5%
+365
FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo
30k iter11.5%
95% CI · 11.2–11.9%
+768
Fair odds
1st AB
3.0%
Through AB2
5.9%
Best window
Early
What shifted the projection
- Park+10%
- Temp+5%
- Contact-3%
- Statcast-3%
🎯 Early-AB cues
- ·HR-friendly park (factor 110)
- ·90F game
▸Model inputs
Base HR/PA0.0267 · blended_3sys
TTO rampconstant
Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant
vs SP (HR/9)0% (×1.00) · no_pitcher
Park+10% (×1.10)
Wind0% (×1.00)
Temp+5% (×1.05)
Lineup0% (×1.00)
Contact (batted-ball)-3% (×0.97)
Statcast (barrel/EV)-3% (×0.97)
Pitch match0% (×1.00)
SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)
SP contact (batted-ball)0% (×1.00)
SP Statcast allowed0% (×1.00)
Discipline-0% (×1.00)
▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)
Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)
2026-06-12 · THE BAT XProj HR (RoS)
1.8
Proj PA
69
HR / PA
.026
ISO
.148
wOBA
.312
wRC+
96
2026 Contact Profile
🐾 Tonight: Away2026-06-12 · FG
Season
HR/FB
14.3
Hard%
35.0
FB%
24.1
Pull%
40.0
Soft%
11.7
GB%
56.9
vs LHP
HR/FB
14.3
Hard%
33.3
FB%
21.2
Pull%
30.3
Soft%
15.2
GB%
57.6
vs RHP
HR/FB
14.3
Hard%
37.0
FB%
28.0
Pull%
51.9
Soft%
7.4
GB%
56.0
Home
HR/FB
25.0
Hard%
33.3
FB%
19.0
Pull%
47.6
Soft%
9.5
GB%
61.9
🐾Away
HR/FB
10.0
Hard%
35.9
FB%
27.0
Pull%
35.9
Soft%
12.8
GB%
54.1
🐾 = split that matches tonight (Away). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).
Why this pick
4.0 🐾STRONG PLAY
- Citi Field mild HR boost (+10)
- 91°F — ball flies in warm air
- Park boost (110)
- High barrels/PA (6.2%)
Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.
Last 15 Days
🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup
.167↓ vs season .2508 PA · 15d
OPS
.542
ISO
—
HR
0
RBI
1
K-BB
0-2
Game Log · Last 8
| Date | Opp | AB | H | HR | RBI | BB | K | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-12 | @ NYM | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
| 06-10 | @ CHW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 06-09 | @ CHW | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 06-06 | vs PIT | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 06-05 | vs PIT | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 06-03 | vs TOR | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 05-31 | @ CIN | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 05-28 | @ BOS | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4
| Pitch | ISO | xwOBA | BRL% | HH% | Pull% | Whiff% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SI18PA | .167 | .309 | 15.8 | 43.8 | 47 | 17.9 |
| CH11PA | — | .279 | 0.0 | 16.7 | 83 | 52.4 |
| FF22PA | .238 | .276 | 5.3 | 29.4 | 53 | 14.3 |
Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP
SISinker
| Split | ISO | xwOBA | BRL% | HH% | Pull% | Whiff% | wRC+ | PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs LHP | — | .263 | 0.0 | 16.7 | 17 | 12.5 | 90 | 6 |
| vs RHP🐾 CRUSHES | .375 | .332 | 23.1 | 61.5 | 62 | 15.4 | 31 | 16 |
CHChangeup
| Split | ISO | xwOBA | BRL% | HH% | Pull% | Whiff% | wRC+ | PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs LHP | — | .334 | 0.0 | 20.0 | 80 | 44.4 | 90 | 9 |
| vs RHP | no sample | |||||||
FF4-Seam Fastball
| Split | ISO | xwOBA | BRL% | HH% | Pull% | Whiff% | wRC+ | PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs LHP | .333 | .264 | 8.3 | 25.0 | 58 | 11.8 | 90 | 16 |
| vs RHP | — | .301 | 0.0 | 28.6 | 43 | 7.7 | 31 | 8 |
Ballpark — Tonight's Venue
vs LHB
99
🐾vs RHB
111
vs SHB
105
Citi Field. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches White.
Season Statcast
Barrel %
7.5
Pull % (HRs)
75
xBA
.250
Brl / PA %
6.18
Exit Velocity Profile
Max EV (mph)
103.7
Avg EV on HRs
101.6
Avg HR Distance (ft)
370
HRs in sample
4
No-doubters (110+ mph)
0/4
Crushed (105+ mph)
0/4
Avg LA on HRs
25.5°
Brl / PA %
6.18
Sampled across 4 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.
Strike Zone Heatmap
🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal
🐾 Hottest zone: #5 (xwOBA .505). Hover any cell for detail.
Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.
Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)
🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (NYM)
Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.
Overlay: Citi Field (335/408/330 ft) · elev 33ft
4 HRs this season
vs RHP 3vs LHP 1
Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)
SI🐾Sinker2
SLSlider1
FF4-Seam Fastball1
Bats R · Pull side: LF
Splits — Today's Matchup
Handedness
| Split | ISO | SLG | OPS | BRL% | HR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs RHP33PA | .121 | .333 | .545 | 15.6% | 1 |
| vs LHP48PA | .146 | .366 | .679 | 2.9% | 1 |
Location
| Split | ISO | SLG | OPS | BRL% | HR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home29PA | .111 | .259 | .466 | 12.0% | 1 |
| 🐾Away52PA | .149 | .404 | .712 | 7.1% | 1 |
Time
| Split | ISO | SLG | OPS | BRL% | HR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🐾Day25PA | .209 | .417 | .657 | 12.5% | 1 |
| Night56PA | .100 | .320 | .606 | 7.0% | 1 |
Base State
| Split | ISO | SLG | OPS | HR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bases Empty22PA | .200 | .350 | .577 | 1 |
| Runners On40PA | .114 | .400 | .750 | 1 |
| RISP24PA | .200 | .550 | .967 | 1 |
Outs
| Split | ISO | SLG | OPS | HR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 Outs26PA | .208 | .375 | .567 | 1 |
| 1 Out33PA | .133 | .400 | .733 | 1 |
| 2 Outs22PA | .050 | .250 | .523 | 0 |
Count
| Split | ISO | SLG | OPS | HR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-08PA | — | .167 | .417 | 0 |
| 1-09PA | .111 | .444 | .778 | 0 |
| 0-17PA | .428 | .571 | .714 | 1 |
| 2-04PA | .750 | 1.250 | 1.750 | 1 |
| 0-27PA | — | .167 | .452 | 0 |
| 1-211PA | — | .200 | .473 | 0 |
| 2-217PA | .353 | .647 | .941 | 2 |
| 3-214PA | .375 | .625 | 1.196 | 0 |
🐾 = the split that matches tonight. Away · Day · Sat.