Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

8.7%

+1044

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Landen Roupp (RHP) (0.49 HR/9) · park 95

2+ RBI

8.8%

+1035

RBI 1+

32.4%

+209

Hits 1+

63.7%

-175

Hits 2+

21.5%

+365

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

8.7%

95% CI · 8.3–9.0%

+1055

Fair odds

1st AB

1.8%

Through AB2

3.3%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park-5%
Wind+15%
vs SP-33%
Contact+11%
SP Contact-11%
Statcast-2%
SP Statcast-7%

🎯 Early-AB cuesvs Landen Roupp (RHP)

·SP suppresses HRs (blended_proj)
·20 mph wind out to OF
·Elite batted-ball profile (home) — Pull/Hard/FB/HR-FB above league

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0269 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)-33% (×0.67) · blended_proj

Park-5% (×0.95)

Wind+15% (×1.15)

Temp0% (×1.00)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)+11% (×1.11)

Statcast (barrel/EV)-2% (×0.98)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)-11% (×0.89)

SP Statcast allowed-7% (×0.93)

Discipline+0% (×1.00)

HR Odds History

Price range · 18 games

Now

+1045

High

+1255

Low

+450

Med

+710

Avg

+753

+1045

Low +450High +1255

BUILDING HISTORY

No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.

HR Winners — odds that cashed

No priced HR games in the tracked window yet.

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-07-16 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

1.7

Proj PA

HR / PA

.030

ISO

.160

wOBA

.313

wRC+

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Home2026-07-16 · FG

Season

HR/FB

16.7

Hard%

34.8

FB%

27.9

Pull%

39.3

Soft%

11.2

GB%

54.7

vs LHP

HR/FB

21.4

Hard%

33.3

FB%

28.0

Pull%

35.3

Soft%

11.8

GB%

54.0

🐾vs RHP

HR/FB

10.0

Hard%

36.8

FB%

27.8

Pull%

44.7

Soft%

10.5

GB%

55.6

🐾Home

HR/FB

22.2

Hard%

29.0

FB%

29.0

Pull%

48.4

Soft%

9.7

GB%

54.8

Away

HR/FB

13.3

Hard%

37.9

FB%

27.3

Pull%

34.5

Soft%

12.1

GB%

54.5

🐾 = split that matches tonight (vs RHP, Home). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

2.0 🐾

DART THROW

Landen Roupp stingy: only 0.49 HR/9
20 mph wind — check direction relative to spray
78% rain — delay/cancel risk
High barrels/PA (6.2%)
Pitcher suppresses HR (0.49 HR/9)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.278↑ vs season .25021 PA · 15d

OPS

.937

ISO

.278

RBI

K-BB

1-3

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	HR	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-17	vs SF	4	1	0	0	0	0	.250
06-16	vs SF	3	0	0	0	1	1	—
06-14	@ NYM	2	0	0	0	0	0	—
06-13	@ NYM	4	3	1	2	0	0	2.000
💣 390ft · 106.6 EV · Cutter
06-12	@ NYM	1	1	0	1	0	0	1.000
06-10	@ CHW	0	0	0	0	1	0	—
06-09	@ CHW	2	0	0	0	0	0	—
06-06	vs PIT	1	0	0	0	0	0	—

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB. Metrics are this hitter's vs RHP split.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾SISinkervR19PA	.369	.316	18.8	56.2	63	12.5
🐾CUCurveball	—	—	—	—	—	—
🐾CHChangeup14PA	—	.257	0.0	22.2	88	46.4
🐾FCCutter	—	—	—	—	—	—

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

SISinker

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	.143	.317	0.0	28.6	14	11.1	124	7
vs RHPTONIGHT	.369	.316	18.8	56.2	63	12.5	38	19

CHChangeup

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	—	.321	0.0	33.3	83	42.9	124	10
vs RHP	no sample

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

vs LHB

100

🐾vs RHB

vs SHB

Truist Park. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches White.

Season Statcast

Barrel %

7.5

Pull % (HRs)

xBA

.250

Brl / PA %

6.18

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

103.7

Avg EV on HRs

101.6

Avg HR Distance (ft)

370

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

0/4

Crushed (105+ mph)

0/4

Avg LA on HRs

25.5°

Brl / PA %

6.18

Sampled across 4 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Landen Roupp · top 3 pitches tonightvs RHP split

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Neutral matchup

SISinkervs RHP
Use%
37
xwOBA
.316
Whiff%
12.5
HH%
56.2
BRL%
18.8
Pull%
63
CUCurveball
Use%
28
xwOBA
—
Whiff%
—
HH%
—
BRL%
—
Pull%
—
CHChangeup
Use%
19
xwOBA
.257
Whiff%
46.4
HH%
22.2
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
88

Career vs Landen Roupp (RHP)

🐾 Tonight's matchup

—AVG · small sample (2 PA)

OPS

—

RBI

K-BB

0-0

Landen Roupp (RHP) arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
SISinker	36.5	7.7	36.9	58	.355	19.3
CUCurveball⚡ PUT-AWAY	27.6	2.3	16.3	80	.217	29.6
CHChangeup	19.2	0.0	26.2	71	.291	14.3
FCCutter	13.1	4.5	33.3	50	.295	21.9

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

SISinker37% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	4.8	35.7	60	.373	25.0	70
vs RHB	10.2	36.7	57	.332	11.6	57

CUCurveball⚡ PUT-AWAY28% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	5.6	33.3	100	.238	33.3	44
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	0.0	7.7	65	.202	27.7	54

CHChangeup19% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	0.0	33.3	78	.304	14.3	52
vs RHB	0.0	0.0	38	.242	12.9	13

FCCutter13% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	10.0	40.0	70	.341	29.4	16
vs RHB	0.0	33.3	33	.245	17.6	15

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 29.6% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #5 (xwOBA .505). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (ATL)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Truist Park (335/400/325 ft) · elev 1057ft

4 HRs this season

vs RHP 3vs LHP 1

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

SI🐾Sinker2

SLSlider1

FF4-Seam Fastball1

Bats R · Pull side: LF

HR Drought — when he's due

HR Drought

games since last HR

PAs since last HR

Homers about every 8.0 games · 19 PA (1 HR in 8 G)

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾vs RHP40PA	.125	.325	.525	12.8%	1
vs LHP55PA	.213	.468	.813	5.1%	2

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Home37PA	.088	.235	.451	10.3%	1
Away58PA	.226	.509	.837	8.2%	2

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Day31PA	.333	.600	.890	13.3%	2
🐾Night64PA	.087	.298	.579	6.2%	1

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty26PA	.348	.565	.873	2
Runners On45PA	.125	.400	.733	1
RISP27PA	.174	.478	.848	1

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs33PA	.162	.323	.505	1
1 Out37PA	.177	.471	.822	1
2 Outs25PA	.182	.409	.729	1

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. vs RHP · Home · Night · Thu.