Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Showing tomorrow's slate. Projections and lineups will refine as the slate locks in.

Home Run

20.1%

+397

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Griffin Jax (RHP) (1.62 HR/9) · park 127

2+ RBI

15.1%

+563

RBI 1+

38.1%

+163

Hits 1+

63.7%

-175

Hits 2+

21.5%

+365

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

25.0%

95% CI · 24.6–25.5%

+299

Fair odds

1st AB

6.4%

Through AB2

12.4%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park+27%
vs SP-16%
Contact+6%
SP Contact+13%
Statcast+22%
SP Statcast+2%
Discipline-2%

🎯 Early-AB cuesvs Griffin Jax (RHP)

·SP suppresses HRs (blended_proj)
·HR-friendly park (factor 127)
·SP allows hard, pulled fly balls (HR-prone contact)
·Elite Statcast power (barrel%/EV/bat speed above league)

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0391 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)-16% (×0.84) · blended_proj

Park+27% (×1.27)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp0% (×1.00)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)+6% (×1.06)

Statcast (barrel/EV)+22% (×1.22)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)+13% (×1.13)

SP Statcast allowed+2% (×1.02)

Discipline-2% (×0.98)

HR Odds History

Price range · 4 games

Now

+395

High

+625

Low

+395

Med

+475

Avg

+492

+395

Low +395High +625

BUILDING HISTORY

No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.

Recent — tap a game

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-06-12 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

4.7

Proj PA

112

HR / PA

.042

ISO

.195

wOBA

.309

wRC+

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Home2026-06-12 · FG

Season

HR/FB

16.7

Hard%

27.6

FB%

42.9

Pull%

37.9

Soft%

20.7

GB%

28.6

vs LHP

HR/FB

28.6

Hard%

33.3

FB%

77.8

Pull%

33.3

Soft%

22.2

GB%

0.0

🐾vs RHP

HR/FB

0.0

Hard%

25.0

FB%

26.3

Pull%

40.0

Soft%

20.0

GB%

42.1

🐾Home

HR/FB

12.5

Hard%

31.6

FB%

42.1

Pull%

36.8

Soft%

10.5

GB%

26.3

Away

HR/FB

25.0

Hard%

20.0

FB%

44.4

Pull%

40.0

Soft%

40.0

GB%

33.3

🐾 = split that matches tonight (vs RHP, Home). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

5.0 🐾

ELITE BIG DAWG ENERGY

Angel Stadium is a hitter's haven (+27 for RHB)
Crushes 1/3 of SP's top pitches (FF)
Hot streak: .882 OPS over last 15 days
Park boost (127)
High barrels/PA (6.2%)
Pitcher HR-prone (1.62 HR/9)
Pitcher high contact-quality allowed (10.0% brl)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.344↑ vs season .25036 PA · 15d

OPS

.882

ISO

.156

RBI

K-BB

7-2

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	HR	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-12	vs TB	3	1	0	0	0	0	.333
06-10	vs HOU	3	1	0	1	1	0	.333
06-09	vs HOU	5	0	0	0	0	2	—
06-08	vs HOU	1	1	0	0	0	0	1.000
06-07	@ LAD	3	3	0	2	1	0	1.000
06-06	@ LAD	1	0	0	0	0	1	—
06-03	vs COL	4	1	0	1	0	2	.500
06-01	vs COL	5	1	1	4	0	0	.800
💣 390ft · 99.3 EV · Cutter

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB. Metrics are this hitter's vs RHP split.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾STSweeper	—	—	—	—	—	—
🐾FF4-Seam FastballvR12PA	—	.480	16.7	50.0	50	36.8
🐾CHChangeup	—	—	—	—	—	—
🐾SISinker	—	—	—	—	—	—

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	—	.502	20.0	60.0	20	30.8	—	5
vs RHPTONIGHT	—	.480	16.7	50.0	50	36.8	109	12

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

vs LHB

🐾vs RHB

127

vs SHB

106

Angel Stadium. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Siri.

Season Statcast

Barrel %

7.5

xBA

.250

Brl / PA %

6.18

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Griffin Jax · top 3 pitches tonightvs RHP split

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

🐾 ELITE EXPLOIT

STSweeper
Use%
25
xwOBA
—
Whiff%
—
HH%
—
BRL%
—
Pull%
—
FF4-Seam Fastballvs RHP
Use%
21
xwOBA
.480
Whiff%
36.8
HH%
50.0
BRL%
16.7
Pull%
50
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.
CHChangeup
Use%
20
xwOBA
—
Whiff%
—
HH%
—
BRL%
—
Pull%
—

Career vs Griffin Jax (RHP)

🐾 Tonight's matchup

1.000AVG · small sample (1 PA)

OPS

2.000

RBI

K-BB

0-0

Griffin Jax (RHP) arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
STSweeper	24.9	9.1	38.1	68	.289	22.4
FF4-Seam Fastball	20.6	23.8	47.6	52	.454	14.3
CHChangeup⚡ PUT-AWAY	20.4	3.3	33.3	53	.296	28.2
SISinker	19.6	4.2	41.7	71	.374	21.4

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

STSweeper25% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	12.5	62.5	75	.520	7.7	12
vs RHB	7.1	28.6	64	.209	27.8	26

FF4-Seam Fastball21% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	15.4	38.5	46	.402	16.7	18
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	37.5	62.5	63	.531	11.8	12

CHChangeup⚡ PUT-AWAY20% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	0.0	26.9	46	.299	27.6	36
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	25.0	75.0	100	.278	30.0	7

SISinker20% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	12.5	37.5	63	.310	37.5	13
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	0.0	43.8	75	.417	0.0	20

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 28.2% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #8 (xwOBA .569). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾vs RHP31PA	.074	.370	.715	9.1%	0
vs LHP17PA	.438	.813	1.225	38.5%	2

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Home34PA	.161	.387	.660	15.0%	1
Away14PA	.334	.917	1.532	26.7%	1

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Day11PA	—	.444	.944	16.7%	0
🐾Night37PA	.265	.559	.892	21.7%	2

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty8PA	—	.375	.750	0
Runners On27PA	.218	.609	1.049	1
RISP15PA	.363	.818	1.356	1

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs21PA	.278	.556	.872	1
1 Out15PA	—	.385	.852	0
2 Outs12PA	.334	.667	1.000	1

Count

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0-08PA	.143	.429	.679	0
1-02PA	—	.500	1.000	0
0-11PA	3.000	4.000	5.000	1
2-01PA	1.000	2.000	3.000	0
0-29PA	—	.222	.444	0
1-29PA	.111	.444	.778	0
2-27PA	.428	.857	1.286	1
3-26PA	—	.250	.750	0

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. vs RHP · Home · Night · Sat.